Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 191036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

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