Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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821
FXUS64 KMAF 261707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong upper level storm system across New Mexico will move into the
Texas Panhandle this TAF cycle. West to southwest winds will increase to
generally 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by mid afternoon. Confidence
is high enough to include a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA
and blowing dust at KCNM, KHOB, KINK in the 21z-01z timeframe as
the intense storm system approaches. Winds will decrease shortly
after sunset but should remain elevated tonight at 10 to 20 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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