Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 250317

917 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014


See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.


VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in SE-S return flow. NW
flow aloft will quickly transition to SW as the next trough
approaches the Four Corners, w/a few mid/high clouds possible after

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014/


Another chilly night is on tap across the region for tonight, with
clear skies allowing for ample radiational cooling and lows expected
to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s area-wide.  The only exception,
like last night, is the Marfa Plateau, which will once again see low
temperatures bottoming out in the middle to upper teens.

While today saw a bit of a warm up from yesterday, the warming trend
on Christmas Day will be much more pronounced as weak ridging
transitions to quasi-zonal flow aloft, and southwesterly downsloping
winds overspread the area at the surface.  Highs tomorrow will be in
the 60s, with warmest temperatures along the Pecos River Valley
where highs could reach the low 70s in some spots.  The warming
trend will be short-lived, however, as a southern stream shortwave
trough ejects across the southwest toward West Texas, coincident
with a cold front that will slowly push through the area early
Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing
and interaction of the shortwave with the cold front, and how much
precipitation will result.  Thus, have maintained generally slight
chance pops during the Friday night-Saturday night time frame, with
the best shot of snow/wintry mix across northern portions of the
forecast area late Friday night, as well as on Saturday night over
higher terrain in the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south.

For next week, models continue to indicate a high-amplitude
positively-tilted upper trough and accompanying strong cold front
moving trough the region by next Tuesday-Wednesday.  Latest guidance
shows a rather substantial intrusion of Arctic Air with this system,
and thus have sided again with cooler guidance for the latter part
of the extended, though have not lowered temperatures as much as may
be necessary given how much can change between now and then.
Precipitation also remains a big question for next week`s system,
and given model discrepancies in handling not only precipitation
chances but also precipitation type, have not included any
mentionable PoPs for the extended at this time pending a clearer
picture in later model runs.






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