Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 212328

628 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be ongoing
convection near terminals this evening. Currently have scattered
SHRA/TSRA across the region with strong southerly winds in place.
Activity only affecting PEQ, INK and FST at the moment and think the
other terminals are okay for now, based on current radar trends.
Otherwise, will continue to monitor and amend when needed.
Thunderstorms chances will continue overnight and Friday but will
hold off on any mention in the TAF beyond this evening. VFR
conditions will prevail through Friday however this evenings
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall that will briefly reduce
vsbys. Winds will remain gusty at some sites for the next couple of
hours then increase once again Friday afternoon at MAF and FST.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/


Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.






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