Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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014
FXUS64 KMAF 120125 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...
RFW has expired for GDP Mtns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The potential for critical wx has passed and the RFW has expired.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Winds are subsiding across the TAF sites and are expected to
be 10-15kts no later than 02Z, and lighter thereafter. Winds are
still strong aloft with turbulence INVOF GDP Mtns dangerous for
low flying light aircraft and can be expected overnight.
Otherwise VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is beginning to move southward over the west coast
allowing the CWA to be under west southwest flow aloft.  Upper winds
aloft are continuing to mix downward towards the surface over the
Guadalupe Mountains resulting in high wind.  The High Wind Warning
for the Guadalupe Mountains continues through most of tonight.
Elevated and gusty southwest winds will be present across the area
today resulting in downslope compressional warming.  This
compressional warming, along with clearing skies, will result in
warmer temperatures than yesterday.  The current temperature is 81
degrees in Midland and the record high for today is 78 degrees so
the record has already been beat.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon due to strong winds, low
RH values, above normal temperatures, and high to extreme fire
danger.

On Thursday, the upper trough will strengthen and move over
California.  850 mb temperatures over the CWA will be cooler as the
upper trough approaches the region so expect high temperatures
tomorrow to mostly be in the lower to mid 70s.  On Friday, the upper
trough moves southward and will be centered just off the coast of
southern California.  Models are indicating that a cold front will
begin moving into the CWA sometime Friday morning with the NAM12
moving it in faster and further south than the GFS and ECMWF.  Upper
lift and moisture will increase on Friday ahead of the upper trough
allowing for precipitation chances across mainly northern and
eastern sections of the CWA.  High temperatures on Friday will be
tricky depending on how far south and how fast the front moves into
the area.

The NAM12 is colder than 24 hours ago with this model now indicating
temperatures cooling to around freezing Friday night/Saturday
morning.  The GFS and ECMWF continue to show temperatures well above
freezing by Saturday morning for the northern CWA.  The NAM12
forecast sounding near Snyder, TX shows rain changing over to
freezing rain around midnight Friday night.  This sounding shows
freezing rain through Saturday morning with temperatures warming to
a little above freezing Saturday afternoon.  The NAM12 sounding for
Midland shows temperatures Saturday morning hovering a few degrees
above freezing so expect mostly a cold rain although a little bit of
wintry precip can`t be ruled out especially if the temperature cools
to the dewpoint temperature at the surface.  High temperatures
Saturday will again depend on how far south the front moves
according to the GFS/ECMWF or NAM12.  Since the NAM12 seems to be
the outlier, did not include freezing temperatures or frozen
precipitation in the forecast. There will be enough instability
ahead of the front across the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County
that thunderstorms will be possible both Friday and Saturday with
negative LI index values and mid-level lapse rates around 7 degrees
C/km.  The models show the precipitation spreading further westward
across the area on Saturday.

The upper trough moves over the CWA on Sunday with the models
showing the highest precipitation amounts falling this day.  The GFS
and ECMWF show a Pacific front with westerly winds moving through
the area on Sunday.  The models also show most of the precipitation
ending by Sunday night and another front coming into the area
accompanied by a northerly wind shift.  It doesn`t appear that this
front will have much impact on temperatures as highs on Monday are
expected to be fairly similar to Sunday.  Another extension of the
upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday but mostly dry
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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