Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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422
FXUS64 KMAF 261947
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the active weather pattern over the
past several days continues to meander eastward today, currently
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The dryline has
again advanced to the east, similarly positioned to yesterday with
the dryline extending from just east of Gail and Big Spring
southwestward through Pecos and Brewster counties. Under the
influence of continued southwest flow and downslope warming,
temperatures are on track to climb above normal into the mid to
upper 80s across higher terrain and 90s to near 100 degrees across
lower elevations. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue into
this evening across portions of the area, and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

A few high-based storms have begun to develop this afternoon over
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Area and
northeastward into the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of the dryline.
Currently, these storms are not severe, though the potential for
severe storms will increase this afternoon and evening. An
unstable moist air mass exists just to the east of the dryline,
where CAPE values quickly increase to upwards of 3000 J/kg. The
greatest probability for severe weather will be along and to the
east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. 700-500mb lapse rates
will be 7-8C/km, and 0-6km shear will increase to 40-50kt through
this evening, allowing for organized convection. At this time,
large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
given increasing low-level shear through the evening hours, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional strong
storms are possible through this evening across the higher terrain
of the Big Bend Area and Davis Mountains northeastward to the
northern Permian Basin, where gusty wind, hail, and brief heavy
rain are possible.

Storm chances increase across the eastern half of the area
overnight as the aforementioned low finally ejects toward the
central plains, with the trough axis and associated Pacific front
moving through the area late tonight/early Friday morning. The
front is expected to interact with the retreating dryline,
increasing convergence and maintaining strong to severe storms
well into the overnight hours, especially across the Western Low
Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. By
Friday morning, storms should be east of the area, with dry
conditions and slightly cooler, near normal temperatures expected
across the area on Friday afternoon under quasi-zonal flow
aloft.

On Saturday, moisture return will allow for thunderstorm chances
to return to the Lower Trans Pecos, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected areawide. An active pattern then looks to
begin Sunday as the dryline redevelops over the area and backs up
against the higher terrain to the west, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Models
are in agreement regarding the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and lasting until at
least midweek next week, though given less dynamic support,
convection will be contingent on dryline location as well as the
timing of multiple shortwaves that look to traverse the area in
the southwest flow aloft. Given increased moisture as well as
expected cloudcover and precipitation, high temperatures from
Sunday onward look to be near to slightly below normal, with above
normal overnight lows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air will remain for virtually the entire area through
Saturday. An upper trough currently bringing windy conditions west
of the Pecos River will move east tonight allowing winds to
subside Friday and Saturday so despite the very dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. There will be a
low potential for dry lightning (mainly in the Davis Mountains)
though isolated storm coverage will be a limiting factor. Light
winds Friday and Saturday could provide an opportunity for
controlled burning. Sunday the dryline will retreat west
increasing moisture levels and providing a good chance for showers
with the highest rain chances in the east and decreasing farther
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  90  60  91 /  50  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       56  89  55  93 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  96  64  91 /  30  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  62  90  60  93 /  30   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  86  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  81  41  88 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  92  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Odessa                         62  91  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Wink                           57  92  57  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

10/84

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