Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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242
FXUS64 KMAF 301950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  82  52  86  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  87  62  89  /   0  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  81  50  87  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  90  /   0  50  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  86  59  88  /  10  40  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  75  52  77  /   0  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   52  81  49  83  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  74  46  78  /   0  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  86  57  86  /   0  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  60  85  56  86  /   0  20  10  10
WINK TX                    54  86  52  90  /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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