Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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964
FXUS64 KMAF 160527
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection winding down as AMS continues
stabilizing, and all terminals VFR. Expect VFR conditions the next
24 hours. Models hint at MVFR cigs for a few hours Wed morning
eastern terminals, but have not handled the past 24 hrs well.
Thus, we`ll forgo inserting a mention of convection attm.
However, forecast soundings suggest a widespread cu field
developing by late morning, w/bases 4-6kft agl. A 40+KT llj is
forecast to develop near the end of the fcst period, which may
sustain any convection that develops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front
across the central Permian Basin is expected to produce widely
scattered thunderstorms the next 24 hours. Based on current
trends confidence not high enough at this time to mention at
any of the terminals. Will continue to monitor throughout the
forecast periods. Winds tonight will generally be east to
southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms across the Davis
Mountains and surrounding area as well as some light showers across
the Western Low Rolling Plains.  This is a result of a shortwave
moving over the region on the backside of a broad upper trough that
is centered over the Great Lakes region.  Temperatures are cooler
today as a result of a boundary moving through the area with east to
northeast winds on the backside of a surface high over the
Central/Southern Plains.  Another shortwave will move into the
northern CWA tonight as the boundary moves to the south, so showers
are expected to continue into the overnight hours.  A shortwave will
be over the area on Wednesday so more scattered showers and
thunderstorms with moderate rainfall are expected.  Bulk shear and
CAPE values will be higher across the northern and eastern CWA so an
isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.  Despite the
scattered rain and cloud cover across the area, temperatures are
expected to warm up on Wednesday due to an intensifying surface
trough.

An additional shortwave on the backside of the upper trough will
move over the area on Thursday with a cold front moving into the
area Thursday as well.  Temperatures will warm up in advance of the
front, but there is some uncertainty with how warm it will get.  The
shortwave and front will allow for more rain and storms to develop
across the CWA on Thursday with the lift remaining over the region.
Moderate rainfall amounts are again expected.  A few severe storms
are possible this day along and near the front.  On Friday, the
upper trough and associated shortwaves will move east of the region
with the area of convection moving south toward the Rio Grande by
Friday evening.

An upper ridge will begin building over the central conus on
Saturday with areas of convection being confined to the higher
terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures are
also expected to warm up into the mid 90s to triple digits beginning
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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