Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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506
FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front has made it through HOB... CNM is also coming around
to the N. Extensive MVFR cigs that cover most of the region this
morning will be slow to break up but should improve to VFR during
the afternoon. Could see a few afternoon storms around MAF and
FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front currently along a line from roughly Aspermont to Tatum
to just south of Roswell will continue its southward push well ahead
of schedule, moving through the area during the morning hours.
Widespread cloudcover will fill in behind the front as it moves
south, and looking upstream, a few showers and thunderstorms
began to develop along and behind the front as it moved through
Lubbock, which could continue into the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains this morning, though no severe weather
is expected with these storms. Temperatures behind the front are
quite cool for this time of year, with early morning temperatures
across the northern Panhandle in the low to middle 40s. The cool
air will continue filtering south behind the front today, thus
have sided with cooler guidance across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, with highs only expected to make it into the
upper 60s and 70s, with around 80 degrees possible closer to the
Pecos River.

The front will slow its southward progression by this afternoon,
with temperatures across the Lower Trans Pecos and points south
still expected to climb well into the 80s, with some 90s possible
along the Rio Grande.  While forcing along the front itself will not
be great, strong boundary later heating and steepening lapse rates
are expected to be enough to generate convection once again this
afternoon, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos and far southern
Permian Basin. The Storm Prediction Center has included the
aforementioned area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with
the primary threats expected to be large hail and damaging winds.
Thunderstorms are possible across much of the remainder of the area
today as well, though initiation will be dependent on how long low
clouds remain entrenched in the wake of this morning`s cold front.

Precipitation chances will increase tonight through Thursday night
area-wide as disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft move
over the region, interacting with the stalled frontal boundary and
moist low levels, providing ample lift for showers and
thunderstorms. All models generate copious amounts of QPF during
the Thursday- Thursday night time frame, thus, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially for those locations that
remain saturated from previous rainfall events this week. Ample
cloudcover as well as precipitation on Thursday will keep
temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west Texas quite cool
for this time of year, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s,
around 20 degrees below normal for some locations. The forecast
high for Midland on Thursday of 65 degrees, if verified, would be
a new record low maximum temperature for May 21. The current
record is 68 degrees, which occurred May 21, 1943.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday, and continue to climb
through the weekend. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
also remain through the weekend, first as a potent shortwave
ejects across the area on Friday ahead of the larger scale western
CONUS trough, and then ahead of the trough which looks to finally
begin to progress eastward on Saturday. The trough will develop a
positive tilt as it lifts across the region on Sunday, with weak
ridging developing in its wake for Monday and Tuesday. This would
spell a break in precipitation early next week, with temperatures
climbing back into the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday,
much closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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