Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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808
FXUS64 KMAF 141741
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
A weak cold front is moving through the terminals currently with
gusty northerly winds behind it. Expect these winds to decrease
and shift to the northeast through the afternoon. VFR conditions
will continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  65  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       33  70  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  78  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  69  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          36  65  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  69  27  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  65  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  66  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  70  37  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
416
FXUS64 KMAF 141039
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
439 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become elevated and shift to the north later this morning as a
cold front moves into the area. Winds will then become light and
variable after 00z Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast in the short term, as WV
imagery shows NW flow continuing aloft, w/current models indicating
this shall remain so thru at least Wednesday afternoon.  At the sfc,
a fast-moving cold front was making its way thru the Panhandles,
w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 15Z.  This will
be followed by another, weaker front Monday morning, and a 3rd
Tuesday as a series of shortwaves move into the Great lakes region
over the next few days.  These dry fronts will knock temps down to
around normal by Tuesday afternoon, before a big rebound after
midweek.  Temps Wed-Fri are anticipated climbing into the 80s,
feeling more like late April than mid February as the upper ridge
moves thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This will be
followed by a shortwave Thursday.  Leeside troughing ahead of this
feature may strengthen SW sfc flow Thursday afternoon, resulting in
fire wx concerns.  However, attm the trough looks too far west and
north.  Regardless, this will need to be monitored for changes, as
this looks to be the most critical day this forecast.  Long range
models begin diverging beyond Thursday, but the latest ECMWF
suggests Saturday could pose fire wx problems, as well, bringing
another shortwave thru.

The one upshot of this forecast is, w/the ridge finally moving east
of the region, the window opens for a chance of rain as soon as
Saturday as return flow brings Gulf moisture back into play.  Chances
really ramp up Sunday and Sunday night as models bring a cold front
into the region.  However, considering model
disagreement/discrepancies, we`ll keep chance POPs at best in
the grids for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  35  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  33  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  41  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  44  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          68  36  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          75  27  69  27 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  39  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  40  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  36  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
166
FXUS64 KMAF 140453
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1053 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Southerly winds overnight will veer to
the northwest by morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This
front will move through most sites by mid morning, shifting winds to
the north. Gusts are not expected with this frontal passage.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow will continue through next weekend bringing westerly to
northwesterly upper level flow and periodic weak cold fronts to
west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Our next cold front will arrive
tomorrow, with others expected on Tuesday and Friday. Dry air and
a northerly track for the supporting upper level troughs will
eliminate any chance for rainfall during this time period.
Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
highs and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for lows.

The GFS has been showing a chance for rain starting next Sunday
and now the latest ECMWF is also showing some rainfall for early
next week as well. That would be really nice to see but the 500 mb
trough appears too weak to support any significant precipitation
so am still very skeptical about rainfall. At least it will be
something to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  70  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  76  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  64  44  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          36  69  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  70  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  72  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  76  34  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
178
FXUS64 KMAF 132315
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
515 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Southerly winds will diminish across most
areas as we near sunset, except for at FST where winds will remain
gusty through midnight. A cold front will arrive Sunday morning,
shifting winds to the north. Gusts are not expected with this
frontal passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow will continue through next weekend bringing westerly to
northwesterly upper level flow and periodic weak cold fronts to
west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Our next cold front will arrive
tomorrow, with others expected on Tuesday and Friday. Dry air and
a northerly track for the supporting upper level troughs will
eliminate any chance for rainfall during this time period.
Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
highs and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for lows.

The GFS has been showing a chance for rain starting next Sunday
and now the latest ECMWF is also showing some rainfall for early
next week as well. That would be really nice to see but the 500 mb
trough appears too weak to support any significant precipitation
so am still very skeptical about rainfall. At least it will be
something to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  70  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  76  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  64  44  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          36  69  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  70  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  72  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  76  34  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
298
FXUS64 KMAF 131723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Expect southerly winds 10-20 kts with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  68  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  72  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         48  78  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  74  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  69  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          38  68  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  73  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  70  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  70  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  73  35  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
761
FXUS64 KMAF 130930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours as southerly flow
increases slightly.  A few high clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler today than
yesterday behind a weak backdoor cold front that is coming into
the area this morning. Low level moisture will increase this
afternoon as surface winds become southerly. The upper flow will
start to become more zonal today as a shortwave/upper trough moves
into the Northern Plains.

This trough will send a cold front into the area during the day on
Sunday and another one on Monday resulting in slightly cooler but
above normal temperatures. An upper trough begins to deepen from the
Great Lakes region south to the Mississippi Valley on Monday.
Another cold front is expected to push into the CWA on Tuesday but
will not have much of an influence on temperatures.  Temperatures
will warm up into the upper 70s to lower 80s beginning on Wednesday
as upper ridging builds over the region.  The ECMWF is hinting at a
possible chance of precipitation next Saturday but the upper pattern
is not in agreement with the GFS so kept conditions dry for the
whole forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  46  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  37  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  48  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  45  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  43  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  38  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  33  73  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  45  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  40  73  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
595
FXUS64 KMAF 130447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light easterly winds will persist through
midday then southerly winds return areawide. The potential for low
cigs/vis to affect HOB and MAF Saturday morning is becoming
increasingly unlikely but monitor trends overnight and amend if
needed. Otherwise, clear skies expected through Saturday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
900
FXUS64 KMAF 122311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light easterly winds expected overnight
then southerly winds aob 10kt return by midday. There is a low
potential for low cigs/vis to affect HOB and MAF Saturday morning
but confidence is too low attm to include mention in the TAF. Will
re-evaluate this possibility for the next TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
441
FXUS64 KMAF 121655
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. North winds of 5 to 10 mph
will become east by this evening and continue overnight. There
is the potential for MVFR ceilings to develop at some of the
terminals on or after 12z Saturday. Will monitor this potential
for the next TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light northerly flow
veering to east under mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge
over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
The upper pattern flattens out somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave
moves over the Upper Midwest allowing for a trough to develop over
the Southern Plains.  This upper trough will deepen and move over
the eastern conus during the early part of next week.  Upper ridging
will take shape over the CWA during the middle to late part of next
week.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area today but
temperatures are not expected to change much from yesterday. Low
level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA on Saturday as
surface winds become southerly resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. Another weak cold front will push into the area
during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but temperatures are still
expected to remain above normal. After Monday, temperatures are
expected to gradually increase through next Friday with
temperatures on Friday being in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
much of the area. No precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  40  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  32  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
240
FXUS64 KMAF 120936
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
336 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light northerly flow
veering to east under mostly clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge
over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
The upper pattern flattens out somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave
moves over the Upper Midwest allowing for a trough to develop over
the Southern Plains.  This upper trough will deepen and move over
the eastern conus during the early part of next week.  Upper ridging
will take shape over the CWA during the middle to late part of next
week.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area today but
temperatures are not expected to change much from yesterday. Low
level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA on Saturday as
surface winds become southerly resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. Another weak cold front will push into the area
during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but temperatures are still
expected to remain above normal. After Monday, temperatures are
expected to gradually increase through next Friday with
temperatures on Friday being in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
much of the area. No precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  40  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  32  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
914
FXUS64 KMAF 120450
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1050 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals with light and variable winds in place through
Friday morning. Another weak front expected Friday afternoon/evening
with light NE winds in its wake. Otherwise, skies will remain clear.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tranquil weather will continue across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas through the next seven days, with above normal
temperatures and no precipitation currently forecast.

The upper pattern continues to be dominated by a high amplitude
ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east,
maintaining dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. A weak
cold front today has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. Highs
this afternoon still look on target to reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s north to the middle to upper 70s south, with lows
tonight expected to be in the 30s and 40s, though some upper 20s
are possible across the Marfa Plateau and southeast New Mexico.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Friday, but with
developing easterly surface flow in the wake of today`s front,
increased moisture will result in cooler temperatures Saturday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow will return Sunday,
resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, though the next cold
front is progged to move through the area on Monday. This front
will be similar to today`s, only noticeable due to a north wind
shift and temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Sunday.
Winds quickly return to the southwest by Tuesday, marking the
start of another warming trend that will persist through midweek,
with high temperatures pushing 80 degrees possible by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  72  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  72  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  79  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  71  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          26  73  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         37  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/
016
FXUS64 KMAF 112320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals. Weak front sinking south this afternoon however
north winds have been fairly light in its wake. Another weak
front expected Friday afternoon/evening with light NE winds toward
the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, skies will remain clear.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tranquil weather will continue across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas through the next seven days, with above normal
temperatures and no precipitation currently forecast.

The upper pattern continues to be dominated by a high amplitude
ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east,
maintaining dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. A weak
cold front today has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. Highs
this afternoon still look on target to reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s north to the middle to upper 70s south, with lows
tonight expected to be in the 30s and 40s, though some upper 20s
are possible across the Marfa Plateau and southeast New Mexico.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Friday, but with
developing easterly surface flow in the wake of today`s front,
increased moisture will result in cooler temperatures Saturday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow will return Sunday,
resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, though the next cold
front is progged to move through the area on Monday. This front
will be similar to today`s, only noticeable due to a north wind
shift and temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Sunday.
Winds quickly return to the southwest by Tuesday, marking the
start of another warming trend that will persist through midweek,
with high temperatures pushing 80 degrees possible by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  72  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  72  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  79  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  71  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          26  73  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         37  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
251
FXUS64 KMAF 111759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1159 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light north winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with an upper level
ridge over the western conus. A cold front will move into the
area today resulting in slightly cooler temperatures from
yesterday. Temperatures will warm up into the 70s across most of
the CWA for Friday then cool slightly on Saturday as low level
moisture increases. Temperatures will warm up again on Sunday
prior to another cold front moving into the area cooling
temperatures down into the upper 60s across most of the Permian
Basin for Monday. Temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper
70s for Tuesday and are expected to gradually warm up through next
Thursday. Despite the cold fronts moving into the area,
temperatures will remain above normal. Overnight lows will
generally remain in the 30s and 40s. No precipitation is expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  34  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  31  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  42  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  41  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  42  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  31  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          71  26  73  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  34  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  36  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  31  73  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
796
FXUS64 KMAF 111116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous forecast. VFR conditions are expected
at the terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies. A
weak cold front will push through the northern terminals during
the day and result in a northwest winds around 10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with an upper level
ridge over the western conus. A cold front will move into the
area today resulting in slightly cooler temperatures from
yesterday. Temperatures will warm up into the 70s across most of
the CWA for Friday then cool slightly on Saturday as low level
moisture increases. Temperatures will warm up again on Sunday
prior to another cold front moving into the area cooling
temperatures down into the upper 60s across most of the Permian
Basin for Monday. Temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper
70s for Tuesday and are expected to gradually warm up through next
Thursday. Despite the cold fronts moving into the area,
temperatures will remain above normal. Overnight lows will
generally remain in the 30s and 40s. No precipitation is expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  34  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  31  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  42  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  41  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  42  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  31  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          71  26  73  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  34  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  36  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  31  73  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
430
FXUS64 KMAF 110517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1117 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals the next 24 hours
under clear skies. A weak cold front will try to push through the
northern terminals during the day Thursday and result in a wind
shift to the north and northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  37  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75  35  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         77  41  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  76  44  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  40  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  35  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          68  28  71  26 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  38  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  38  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  33  72  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
841
FXUS64 KMAF 102259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
459 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear skies. A weak
cold front is expected to push through the terminals during the
day Thursday and result in a wind shift to the north.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today feel much more like mid-spring than late
winter, as a combination of solar insolation as well as
downslope warming due to southwesterly surface flow have many
locations on the way to high temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal in the middle 70s. Lows tonight will also be a few
degrees warmer than previous nights, with temperatures expected to
be in the 30s and 40s, aside from some upper 20s possible across
the Marfa Plateau.

As west Texas and southeast New Mexico remain under northwesterly
flow aloft the next few days due to the high amplitude upper
pattern in place across the CONUS, tranquil weather will continue,
with dry conditions and above normal temperatures area- wide. A
weak cold front will move through the area during the day on
Thursday, though will only be noticeable due to a wind shift to
the north and slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures
in the mid 60s north to upper 70s south. Temperatures will warm
again on Friday as southerly surface flow returns, with flow aloft
transitioning to quasizonal on Saturday in response to a shortwave
dropping out of Alberta toward the Upper Midwest. Another cold
front will move through the region Sunday night/Monday, but
similar to the previous, the only impact will be slightly cooler
temperatures and a northerly wind shift. Despite the weak fronts,
little looks to change in the forecast through midweek next week,
with continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions, but
thankfully, winds look to remain on the light side, precluding
critical fire weather concerns despite the persistently warm and
dry pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  69  31  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         41  78  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  44  75  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  65  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          35  68  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  71  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  70  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  70  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  72  31  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/84
940
FXUS64 KMAF 101658
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1058 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southwest winds of 10 to 15kt will decrease around 11/00Z at most
area terminals.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with an upper ridge
over the western conus.  This upper pattern has resulted in
northwest flow aloft over the CWA.  Temperatures today are expected
to warm up into the 70s across most of the area.  The normal
temperature for Midland for this time of year is around 61 degrees.
Surface winds today will be elevated out of the southwest resulting
in dry conditions.  See the Fire Weather discussion below.

On Thursday, a cold front is expected to move into the area
resulting in slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures.
Temperatures warm back up into the 70s across the CWA for Friday.
Conditions will remain pretty much the same for Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front is anticipated on Monday cooling temperatures down
slightly but still remaining above normal.  Temperatures are
expected to rebound again on Tuesday.  No precipitation is
anticipated through the whole forecast period.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

SW winds and above normal temperatures portend very dry conditions
today. Fuels continue to endure a long stretch of drying and with
widespread minimum RHs around 10 pct today that trend will only be
re-enforced. The fire danger will be high today indicating grasses
will be available to burn. In most areas winds will be below 15 mph,
however in the topographically favored areas of the GDP Mtns winds
will be stronger. This combined with temperatures of 7-15 degrees
above normal will result in elevated fire wx concerns and a Fire
Danger Statement will be in effect for this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  38  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75  35  69  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         77  42  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  76  42  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  40  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  34  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          68  26  71  26 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  37  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  37  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  34  72  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
104
FXUS64 KMAF 101113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous forecast. VFR with clear skies. Light
and variable wind this morning will pick up out of the SW around
18Z at around 10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus with an upper ridge
over the western conus.  This upper pattern has resulted in
northwest flow aloft over the CWA.  Temperatures today are expected
to warm up into the 70s across most of the area.  The normal
temperature for Midland for this time of year is around 61 degrees.
Surface winds today will be elevated out of the southwest resulting
in dry conditions.  See the Fire Weather discussion below.

On Thursday, a cold front is expected to move into the area
resulting in slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures.
Temperatures warm back up into the 70s across the CWA for Friday.
Conditions will remain pretty much the same for Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front is anticipated on Monday cooling temperatures down
slightly but still remaining above normal.  Temperatures are
expected to rebound again on Tuesday.  No precipitation is
anticipated through the whole forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER...

SW winds and above normal temperatures portend very dry conditions
today. Fuels continue to endure a long stretch of drying and with
widespread minimum RHs around 10 pct today that trend will only be
re-enforced. The fire danger will be high today indicating grasses
will be available to burn. In most areas winds will be below 15 mph,
however in the topographically favored areas of the GDP Mtns winds
will be stronger. This combined with temperatures of 7-15 degrees
above normal will result in elevated fire wx concerns and a Fire
Danger Statement will be in effect for this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  38  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75  35  69  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         77  42  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  76  42  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  40  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  34  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          68  26  71  26 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  37  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  37  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  34  72  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
537
FXUS64 KMAF 100509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1109 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with clear skies. Light and variable wind overnight
will pick up out of the SW around 18Z at around 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  33  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  28  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  37  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  39  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  30  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  23  68  26 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  33  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  34  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  28  76  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
673
FXUS64 KMAF 092324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
With upper ridge over the area and weak surface pressure gradient
look for a light and variable wind. VFR with clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Benign weather conditions look to continue across the region for
the next seven days, with above normal temperatures and no
chance of precipitation.

A high amplitude pattern with ridging over the western US and a
deep trough extending from Hudson Bay to the Gulf Coast continues
to maintain northwest flow aloft across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas. A return to southwesterly surface flow has allowed for
temperatures today to climb back above normal, with highs in the
60s to around 70 degrees still looking on target for this
afternoon. Lows tonight will be close to normal for this time of
year, ranging from the upper 20s across southeast New Mexico to
around 40 degrees south, with lower 20s possible for the Marfa
Plateau. Wednesday will be even warmer, with highs expected to be
10 to 15 degrees above normal area-wide. Higher elevations should
see temperatures in the middle to upper 60s, with middle to upper
70s elsewhere. A cold front will move through the region
Thursday, though it will pass with little fanfare aside from
briefly gusty northeast winds and slightly cooler, but still above
normal temperatures. Similarly weak fronts are progged to move
through Saturday and Monday, though not much change is expected
through the extended, as above normal temperatures will continue
to be the rule, with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 30s
and 40s. Thankfully, winds should remain on the light side, thus
precluding major fire weather concerns despite the persistently
warm and dry pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  75  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  77  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  79  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  76  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  66  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  73  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          23  68  26  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           33  76  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         34  75  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           28  76  32  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
782
FXUS64 KMAF 091526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
926 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light and
somewhat variable winds will also be present.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry NW flow aloft will dominate the wx pattern thru Sat. Underneath
this dry flow the low levels will generally warm, although
interruptions due to a frontal boundary may occur on Thur and
Sat. Winds will be noticed little, with brief gusty conditions on
Wed across the n ahead of the front. Ensemble data confirms this
period of tranquil wx with 85h temps anomalys 0 to 1.5 standard
deviations above normal. 8-14 day 5h height anomalys show a
warm/dry signal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  34  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  29  78  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  40  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  40  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  32  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  22  67  25 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  34  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  75  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
814
FXUS64 KMAF 091058
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
458 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light and
somewhat variable winds will also be present.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry NW flow aloft will dominate the wx pattern thru Sat. Underneath
this dry flow the low levels will generally warm, although
interruptions due to a frontal boundary may occur on Thur and
Sat. Winds will be noticed little, with brief gusty conditions on
Wed across the n ahead of the front. Ensemble data confirms this
period of tranquil wx with 85h temps anomalys 0 to 1.5 standard
deviations above normal. 8-14 day 5h height anomalys show a
warm/dry signal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  34  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  29  78  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  40  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  40  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  40  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  32  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  22  67  25 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  34  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  33  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  75  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
278
FXUS64 KMAF 090447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a dry forecast under
upper level ridging continues.  CAA overnight from yesterday`s cold
front has resulted in a slow start to warming this afternoon,
w/highs expected to top out several degrees below normal.  However,
as the west coast ridge continues building in, a gradual warm-up is
still on tap thru Thursday, when it`ll feel more like early April
than February.  Late Thursday afternoon, the next (dry) cold front
is due into the area, w/models coming in w/post-frontal temps a
little cooler than in the past few runs.  However, temps will still
stay above normal.  A secondary (dry) front is advertized for Monday
to round out the extended.

Again, no rain thru the extended, w/the latest ECMWF coming in bone
dry again.  Critical fire wx concerns remain minimal, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  67  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  68  27  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  72  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  70  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  59  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  65  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          22  63  25  67 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  68  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  66  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           23  69  31  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
486
FXUS64 KMAF 082327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a dry forecast under
upper level ridging continues.  CAA overnight from yesterday`s cold
front has resulted in a slow start to warming this afternoon,
w/highs expected to top out several degrees below normal.  However,
as the west coast ridge continues building in, a gradual warm-up is
still on tap thru Thursday, when it`ll feel more like early April
than February.  Late Thursday afternoon, the next (dry) cold front
is due into the area, w/models coming in w/post-frontal temps a
little cooler than in the past few runs.  However, temps will still
stay above normal.  A secondary (dry) front is advertized for Monday
to round out the extended.

Again, no rain thru the extended, w/the latest ECMWF coming in bone
dry again.  Critical fire wx concerns remain minimal, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  67  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  68  27  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  72  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  70  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  59  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  65  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          22  63  25  67 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  68  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  66  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           23  69  31  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
931
FXUS64 KMAF 081711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1111 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with will prevail the next 24 hours with light
winds gradually veering to the southwest through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge over the western half of the
country with a large trough centered over the Great Lakes.  The
ridge will slowly slide east as the trough moves toward the
Atlantic.  This will result in mild wx for the region into next
week.

After another unseasonably warm day yesterday looking for a
noticeably cooler day today in post frontal conditions.  highs today
should be in the 50s as a north wind and cold air advection
continues through the day.  Wind should become westerly/downslope
Tuesday as temps quickly recover into the 60s.  Warming temps
continue through the week as highs in the 70s return Wednesday and
hang around through next weekend.

Should have lots of high clouds today but forecast will remain dry.
Gusty NE wind at GDP should decrease throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  68  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       25  66  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         33  70  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  69  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  59  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          26  64  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          19  63  21  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           29  66  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         28  65  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           26  67  27  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
399
FXUS64 KMAF 081128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals with light winds and mostly clear skies in place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge over the western half of the
country with a large trough centered over the Great Lakes.  The
ridge will slowly slide east as the trough moves toward the
Atlantic.  This will result in mild wx for the region into next
week.

After another unseasonably warm day yesterday looking for a
noticeably cooler day today in post frontal conditions.  highs today
should be in the 50s as a north wind and cold air advection
continues through the day.  Wind should become westerly/downslope
Tuesday as temps quickly recover into the 60s.  Warming temps
continue through the week as highs in the 70s return Wednesday and
hang around through next weekend.

Should have lots of high clouds today but forecast will remain dry.
Gusty NE wind at GDP should decrease throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  29  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  25  66  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  34  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  33  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          54  19  63  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  29  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         56  28  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           57  26  67  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
893
FXUS64 KMAF 080446
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  At 18Z, sfc analysis
showed fropa about an hour away from KMAF, w/afternoon temps most
locations at or above normal.  Over the past few days, models have
been pretty consistent on the timing of the front, but lagging by a
few hours before CAA really gets going.  Nevertheless, a hard freeze
looks likely overnight, especially after post-frontal gradients
relax under mostly clear skies.  Monday, temps should top out below
normal under light northerly flow, before winds back around to the
southwest/west and bring temps back above-normal Tuesday as the west
coast ridge moves further inland.  Temps are then scheduled to
continue climbing thru Thursday afternoon, feeling more like April
than February as temps most locations climb to the mid-upper 70s.
Unfortunately, another front arrives Thursday evening, w/models
putting fropa at KMAF at around 00Z Friday.  This will take temps
down a notch thru the weekend, but most areas should reach 70F or
better each afternoon.

Otherwise, rain remains elusive thru the extended, w/the latest
ECMWF bone dry, among others.  However, the ridge will still make
for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical fire
wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  54  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       29  55  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         38  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  54  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 30  50  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  54  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          24  54  18  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  56  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           31  57  27  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
297
FXUS64 KMAF 072319
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  At 18Z, sfc analysis
showed fropa about an hour away from KMAF, w/afternoon temps most
locations at or above normal.  Over the past few days, models have
been pretty consistent on the timing of the front, but lagging by a
few hours before CAA really gets going.  Nevertheless, a hard freeze
looks likely overnight, especially after post-frontal gradients
relax under mostly clear skies.  Monday, temps should top out below
normal under light northerly flow, before winds back around to the
southwest/west and bring temps back above-normal Tuesday as the west
coast ridge moves further inland.  Temps are then scheduled to
continue climbing thru Thursday afternoon, feeling more like April
than February as temps most locations climb to the mid-upper 70s.
Unfortunately, another front arrives Thursday evening, w/models
putting fropa at KMAF at around 00Z Friday.  This will take temps
down a notch thru the weekend, but most areas should reach 70F or
better each afternoon.

Otherwise, rain remains elusive thru the extended, w/the latest
ECMWF bone dry, among others.  However, the ridge will still make
for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical fire
wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  54  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  55  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  54  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  50  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          22  54  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  54  18  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         27  56  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  57  27  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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