Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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955
FXUS64 KMAF 301712
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
Winds will increase out of the west early this afternoon at
generally 20 to 30 mph with some higher gusts. Winds should
decrease to less than 10 mph around sunset and continue overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1041 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to expire the freeze warning for portions
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. No other changes.

products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today tonight. Westerly winds will
become gusty this afternoon, but decrease around 01/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

An intense upper level low continues to churn across the TX
Panhandle this morning. This system has dumped heavy snow over NM
and the TX/OK Panhandles and north winds off the snow have
brought record cold temperatures to our area. Temperatures have
fallen to near freezing across parts of SE NM, the higher terrain
of W TX and even the NW Permian Basin with 30`s and 40`s
elsewhere. Will add Gaines and Culberson County to the Freeze
Warning and continue the rest as is. We have already reached our
record low for the day here at Midland International with a
current temperature of 39 degrees.

The storm system will pull away from the region today and leave
behind some beautiful conditions. We will have to deal with elevated
winds and critical fire weather across the Marfa Plateau and Davis
mountains this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning for this area. Even though it will still be quite windy,
highs area expected to reach the upper 60`s and low 70`s with full
sunshine this afternoon. Westerly mid level flow develops across the
region Monday and Tuesday which brings back the heat. Expect well
above normal temperatures to return, peaking on Tuesday afternoon.
Luckily it won`t last long as a strong shortwave digs across the
Plains and brings down another strong cold front. This front will
move through the area early Wednesday with much cooler
temperatures behind it. Below normal conditions last through
Thursday before we see a slow warmup by the end of the week. A few
showers or storms are possible along the front Wednesday,
otherwise it will remain dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Despite a cold airmass over the region this morning and good
recovery, westerly winds will return today and become gusty this
afternoon behind a departing upper level storm system.  West to
northwest mid level winds will aid dry air pushing into the region
on westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph sustained in most places.
Although high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal in most
locations this afternoon, minimum RHs will drop to 7-15% along and
west of the Pecos River.  Since little precipitation has fallen in
these areas, and fuels are critically dry, think several locations
will have critical fire weather conditions for a few hours.  Will
issue a Red Flag Warning from 30/18Z-01/01Z for locations west of
the Pecos and in west Texas.

Recovery will be poor over much of the forecast area tonight as dry
air remain entrenched.  Temperatures will warm slightly above normal
Monday afternoon under continuing westerly flow aloft.  Although
minimum RHs will drop to 5-15% areawide Monday afternoon, critical
fire weather conditions may be relegated to the Guadalupe Mountains
where wind speeds will be at least 20-25 mph sustained.

A cold front will approach the area Tuesday morning, but recovery
will still be poor over most of the area ahead of it.  High
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday afternoon, and
minimum RHs 5-15% over all except the Lower Trans Pecos.  At least
near critical fire weather conditions are expected, but wind speeds
may not be strong enough for critical.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  85  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  86  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  88  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  81  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  83  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  86  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         49  85  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  87  53  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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