Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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740
FXUS64 KMAF 040012
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Have made some changes to the ongoing owing to a quicker than
expected frontal translation. The 21Z HRRR pegged the position and
motion of the cold front at 23Z -- somewhere from just south of
Dalhart to near Borger then from there to near I-40 at the OK/TX
state line. As such, expect the front to arrive a bit sooner than
previous forecast, which unfortunately means bringing in wintry
precip and IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday morning. Hope to have
things better pinned down on the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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