Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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813
FXUS64 KMAF 311110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility are not prevalent this morning, but
could see some affecting KMAF under some mid and high cloud breaks.
Further west, it appears thunderstorms will affect KPEQ at the
beginning of the period.  Not certain these storms will hold
together and affect KINK or KHOB, so will leave out for now. Expect
VFR conditions most of the day at all area terminals, but
thunderstorms should be on the increase this afternoon and tonight.
Have included TSRA at most area terminals after 31/21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Widespread unsettled weather is expected through Thursday due
to a slowly approaching southern stream system currently centered
in western Arizona.

For today favor the NAM model in depicting precipitation decreasing
this morning due to stabilization behind convection from last
night. However, expect an uptick in thunderstorm development by
this afternoon across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau due
to intense heating and topography combined with strongly diffluent
flow at 250 millibars and remnant outflow boundaries and mid level
remnant convective vorticity disturbances. Some of these storms
will be strong to severe given 0 to 6 kilometer shear values of 25
to 35 knots and capes in excess of 2000 j/kg.

Thunderstorms will continue tonight and increase in areal coverage
especially across the Permian Basin due to an advancing cold
front and a 25 to 35 knot low level jet developing this evening
ahead of it in continued strongly diffluent flow aloft. Some of
the thunderstorms will be strong to severe tonight and could
produce heavy rainfall. Will mention these potential hazards in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Wednesday and Thursday the southern stream upper low is forecast
to approach and track over southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Will continue mainly chance to likely pops for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy given the slow
movement of the upper low and progged precipitable water values 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal. Will mention the potential
for heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. Temperatures will be well below normal both days with
widespread clouds and precipitation beneath the cold core system.

Precipitation chances should diminish and be mainly confined to
extreme eastern sections of the Permian Basin and lower Trans
Pecos Region Thursday night and Friday as the upper low finally
pushes east into central Texas. Temperatures will still be well
below normal especially in the east Friday.

Beyond Friday the upper low is forecast to only drift slowly south
into southern Texas this weekend into early next week. In this
regime most of the precipitation should remain east of the
forecast area. Will continue the mainly dry forecast for now
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Will mention mainly
diurnal isolated thunderstorms across the Davis and or Guadalupe
Mountains due to unstable upslope flow. Will continue to monitor
the potential for fringe precipitation to back westward into the
eastern Permian Basin these periods due to the proximity of the
system to the south and east. Temperatures are still generally
expected to be below normal under cyclonic flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  65  77  61 /  30  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       92  63  78  60 /  20  20  50  50
Dryden                         88  68  84  65 /  40  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  91  66  81  61 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 82  59  73  55 /  20  20  40  40
Hobbs                          88  60  75  57 /  30  40  60  60
Marfa                          84  54  77  53 /  30  30  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           88  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         87  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           91  63  80  61 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/12
278
FXUS64 KMAF 310950
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread unsettled weather is expected through Thursday due
to a slowly approaching southern stream system currently centered
in western Arizona.

For today favor the NAM model in depicting precipitation decreasing
this morning due to stabilization behind convection from last
night. However, expect an uptick in thunderstorm development by
this afternoon across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau due
to intense heating and topography combined with strongly diffluent
flow at 250 millibars and remnant outflow boundaries and mid level
remnant convective vorticity disturbances. Some of these storms
will be strong to severe given 0 to 6 kilometer shear values of 25
to 35 knots and capes in excess of 2000 j/kg.

Thunderstorms will continue tonight and increase in areal coverage
especially across the Permian Basin due to an advancing cold
front and a 25 to 35 knot low level jet developing this evening
ahead of it in continued strongly diffluent flow aloft. Some of
the thunderstorms will be strong to severe tonight and could
produce heavy rainfall. Will mention these potential hazards in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Wednesday and Thursday the southern stream upper low is forecast
to approach and track over southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Will continue mainly chance to likely pops for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy given the slow
movement of the upper low and progged precipitable water values 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal. Will mention the potential
for heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. Temperatures will be well below normal both days with
widespread clouds and precipitation beneath the cold core system.

Precipitation chances should diminish and be mainly confined to
extreme eastern sections of the Permian Basin and lower Trans
Pecos Region Thursday night and Friday as the upper low finally
pushes east into central Texas. Temperatures will still be well
below normal especially in the east Friday.

Beyond Friday the upper low is forecast to only drift slowly south
into southern Texas this weekend into early next week. In this
regime most of the precipitation should remain east of the
forecast area. Will continue the mainly dry forecast for now
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Will mention mainly
diurnal isolated thunderstorms across the Davis and or Guadalupe
Mountains due to unstable upslope flow. Will continue to monitor
the potential for fringe precipitation to back westward into the
eastern Permian Basin these periods due to the proximity of the
system to the south and east. Temperatures are still generally
expected to be below normal under cyclonic flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  65  77  61 /  30  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       92  63  78  60 /  20  20  50  50
Dryden                         88  68  84  65 /  40  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  91  66  81  61 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 82  59  73  55 /  20  20  40  40
Hobbs                          88  60  75  57 /  30  40  60  60
Marfa                          84  54  77  53 /  30  30  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           88  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         87  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           91  63  80  61 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/12
469
FXUS64 KMAF 310522
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms are slowly decreasing and have kept a TEMPO TSRA just through
07Z. A brief period of MVFR CIGS will be possible at MAF. Otherwise
atmosphere is expected to be very unstable Tue PM and tstms are
expected...some severe with heavy rain. For now we have opted to
include PROB30 groups at MAF/FST/HOB and they may have to be
increased to TEMPO on upcoming forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  63  77  62 /  30  50  50  50
Carlsbad                       91  62  78  59 /  10  20  50  50
Dryden                         88  68  84  65 /  30  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  89  66  81  61 /  30  30  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 81  59  73  54 /  10  20  40  30
Hobbs                          86  60  75  59 /  20  30  50  50
Marfa                          83  57  77  54 /  20  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           88  64  78  61 /  30  40  50  50
Odessa                         88  64  78  60 /  30  40  50  50
Wink                           92  66  80  61 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
815
FXUS64 KMAF 302350
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
650 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Tstms just e of the MAF along a boundary seem to be having a hard
time developing farther w, but close enuf for a short TSRA TEMPO
group. Otherwise have left VFR wx in all other sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite is showing convection already
developing in the higher elevations from the Davis Mountains north
to the Guadalupe Mountains. This can be attributed to less morning
cloud cover areawide allowing for more insolation and a greater
destabilization of the boundary layer than was seen yesterday.
Models are showing the cap eroding by 21Z with CAPE of 2500-3500
J/KG being enough to support severe convection though deep layer
shear is a bit marginal at 30-35kts. Expect to see some severe
thunderstorms today with large hail and strong winds the primary
threats with hail size being limited due to the shear.

Tuesday looks to be a repeat of today except the dryline will make
a push into southeast New Mexico focusing convection farther east
in the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Wednesday see rain
chances increase as an upper low approaching from the west
coincides with the arrival of a cold front. Cool air behind the
front will stabilize the boundary layer leaving the main threat
for severe weather west of the Pecos River, especially the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend. A stable layer will not prevent precip
in the Permian Basin though it will mean showers will be less
intense and QPF will be lighter. Cold air advection and showers
will also keep highs in the 70s most areas Wednesday and Thursday
providing a very pleasant start to June. The upper low will move
east of the area late Thursday bringing an end to the rain, but
thankfully the upstream ridge axis will hold over the western
states for a few days leaving us in a cool northerly flow pattern.
This will allow temperatures to warm some while staying below
climatology for the end of the week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough over the Desert SW will slowly inch east over
the next few days. Dry air across northern Mexico will move across
the Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday afternoon with rh`s falling to
around 10 percent. Winds will also increase to near 25 mph,
especially across the peak elevations. Near critical fire weather
conditions are possible in this area so will continue the Fire
Weather Watch. Moisture increases by midweek and should keep rh`s
fairly high through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  86  63  77 /  40  30  50  50
Carlsbad                       64  91  62  78 /  20  10  20  50
Dryden                         68  88  68  84 /  40  30  30  40
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  81 /  40  30  30  50
Guadalupe Pass                 61  81  59  73 /  30  10  20  40
Hobbs                          63  86  60  75 /  30  20  30  50
Marfa                          58  83  57  77 /  40  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Odessa                         65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Wink                           67  92  66  80 /  40  20  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
314
FXUS64 KMAF 301923
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
223 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite is showing convection already
developing in the higher elevations from the Davis Mountains north
to the Guadalupe Mountains. This can be attributed to less morning
cloud cover areawide allowing for more insolation and a greater
destabilization of the boundary layer than was seen yesterday.
Models are showing the cap eroding by 21Z with CAPE of 2500-3500
J/KG being enough to support severe convection though deep layer
shear is a bit marginal at 30-35kts. Expect to see some severe
thunderstorms today with large hail and strong winds the primary
threats with hail size being limited due to the shear.

Tuesday looks to be a repeat of today except the dryline will make
a push into southeast New Mexico focusing convection farther east
in the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Wednesday see rain
chances increase as an upper low approaching from the west
coincides with the arrival of a cold front. Cool air behind the
front will stabilize the boundary layer leaving the main threat
for severe weather west of the Pecos River, especially the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend. A stable layer will not prevent precip
in the Permian Basin though it will mean showers will be less
intense and QPF will be lighter. Cold air advection and showers
will also keep highs in the 70s most areas Wednesday and Thursday
providing a very pleasant start to June. The upper low will move
east of the area late Thursday bringing an end to the rain, but
thankfully the upstream ridge axis will hold over the western
states for a few days leaving us in a cool northerly flow pattern.
This will allow temperatures to warm some while staying below
climatology for the end of the week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough over the Desert SW will slowly inch east over
the next few days. Dry air across northern Mexico will move across
the Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday afternoon with rh`s falling to
around 10 percent. Winds will also increase to near 25 mph,
especially across the peak elevations. Near critical fire weather
conditions are possible in this area so will continue the Fire
Weather Watch. Moisture increases by midweek and should keep rh`s
fairly high through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  86  63  77 /  40  30  50  50
Carlsbad                       64  91  62  78 /  20  10  20  50
Dryden                         68  88  68  84 /  40  30  30  40
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  81 /  40  30  30  50
Guadalupe Pass                 61  81  59  73 /  30  10  20  40
Hobbs                          63  86  60  75 /  30  20  30  50
Marfa                          58  83  57  77 /  40  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Odessa                         65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Wink                           67  92  66  80 /  40  20  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

29/10
819
FXUS64 KMAF 301659
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1159 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail into the evening. Expect scattered
storms to develop later today with gusty winds and low
visibilities in and near the storms. Low clouds are once again
possible tonight mainly across the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  66  79 /  30  20  30  40
Carlsbad                       61  92  58  81 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         69  88  67  83 /  20  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  65  92  66  86 /  20  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  84  59  81 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          61  91  57  71 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          53  84  51  82 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           66  91  63  81 /  20  10  20  40
Odessa                         66  91  65  83 /  20  10  20  40
Wink                           66  94  63  86 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

29
384
FXUS64 KMAF 301118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will continue spreading across the area and are
expected to dissipate around 16z. Winds are expected to mostly be
out of the south to southeast during the period. There is a chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but probabilities are
not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved inland to the CA/AZ
border over the last 24 hours, leaving West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico under continued SW flow aloft.  Latest sfc observations have
the dryline backed up against the mtns again, w/dewpoints better
than 50F everywhere.  Area radars show last night`s MCS still going
strong over Central Texas, and the cold pool it sent thru KMAF
earlier continues to work its way south attm. This will play hob
w/temps and instability today, rendering current model guidance
somewhat moot.  In addition, cloud cover yesterday limited
temps/convection, and may do so again today. That said, the best
focus for convection today will be the dryline and the boundary
that moved thru here earlier.  Forecast soundings continue to show
afternoon capes east of the dryline in excess of 2500J/kg, w/mid-lvl
LRs of 7C/km or better throughout the FA, suggestive of a continuing
large threat.  High cloud bases and dcapes above 1000J/kg will keep
a wind threat in play, as well.  0-6km shear doesn`t look quite as
impressive as yesterday, but a severe storm or two can`t be ruled
out, and we`ll leave a mention in the grids.

The upper trough is forecast to move south of the AZ border by
Tuesday afternoon, creep thru nrn Sonora/Chihuahua Wednesday, and
pass thru West Texas Thursday.  This will continue a chance of
convection along and east of the dryline daily thru then, w/forecast
soundings yielding similar parameters for severe wx daily as those
mentioned above, i.e., large hail/damaging winds.  However, we`ll
restrict a mention of this to the HWO beyond today.  Temperatures
should stay close to normal today and Tuesday, but should come down
significantly Wednesday/Thursday w/the arrival of a cold front
Tuesday night and decreasing thicknesses w/the approach of the
trough.  Beyond Thursday, the trough is forecast to open and stall
over the Texas Gulf Coast, preventing ridging from building into our
area and keeping temps 5-10 degrees below normal.

Finally, the dryline may move far enough east Tuesday afternoon to
expose the Guadalupes to a few hours of critical fire wx
conditions, and we`ll issue a watch for then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  68  90  66 /  20  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       92  61  92  58 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  69  88  67 /  40  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  65  92  66 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  62  84  59 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          86  61  91  57 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          82  53  84  51 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  66  91  63 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                         90  66  91  65 /  20  20  10  20
Wink                           92  66  94  63 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
653
FXUS64 KMAF 300900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved inland to the CA/AZ
border over the last 24 hours, leaving West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico under continued SW flow aloft.  Latest sfc observations have
the dryline backed up against the mtns again, w/dewpoints better
than 50F everywhere.  Area radars show last night`s MCS still going
strong over Central Texas, and the cold pool it sent thru KMAF
earlier continues to work its way south attm. This will play hob
w/temps and instability today, rendering current model guidance
somewhat moot.  In addition, cloud cover yesterday limited
temps/convection, and may do so again today. That said, the best
focus for convection today will be the dryline and the boundary
that moved thru here earlier.  Forecast soundings continue to show
afternoon capes east of the dryline in excess of 2500J/kg, w/mid-lvl
LRs of 7C/km or better throughout the FA, suggestive of a continuing
large threat.  High cloud bases and dcapes above 1000J/kg will keep
a wind threat in play, as well.  0-6km shear doesn`t look quite as
impressive as yesterday, but a severe storm or two can`t be ruled
out, and we`ll leave a mention in the grids.

The upper trough is forecast to move south of the AZ border by
Tuesday afternoon, creep thru nrn Sonora/Chihuahua Wednesday, and
pass thru West Texas Thursday.  This will continue a chance of
convection along and east of the dryline daily thru then, w/forecast
soundings yielding similar parameters for severe wx daily as those
mentioned above, i.e., large hail/damaging winds.  However, we`ll
restrict a mention of this to the HWO beyond today.  Temperatures
should stay close to normal today and Tuesday, but should come down
significantly Wednesday/Thursday w/the arrival of a cold front
Tuesday night and decreasing thicknesses w/the approach of the
trough.  Beyond Thursday, the trough is forecast to open and stall
over the Texas Gulf Coast, preventing ridging from building into our
area and keeping temps 5-10 degrees below normal.

Finally, the dryline may move far enough east Tuesday afternoon to
expose the Guadalupes to a few hours of critical fire wx
conditions, and we`ll issue a watch for then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  68  90  66 /  20  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       92  61  92  58 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  69  88  67 /  40  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  65  92  66 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  62  84  59 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          86  61  91  57 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          82  53  84  51 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  66  91  63 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                         90  66  91  65 /  20  20  10  20
Wink                           92  66  94  63 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/44
354
FXUS64 KMAF 300525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will continue to be gusty out of the northeast as an outflow
boundary/haboob pushes southward. Winds are expected to decrease
and return to the southeast by 12z. Low ceilings will continue to
move into the area and are expected to dissipate around 16z
Monday. Winds will be elevated out of the south Monday afternoon
with thunderstorm chances increasing around mid to late afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Broken to overcast skies have kept convection at bay so far, but
satellite and radar are showing developing showers in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where clouds are more scattered,
beginning a round of thunderstorms across much of the area.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will produce CAPE values in excess
of 4000 J/kg and combined with 0-6km shear of 35-50kts will ensure
some storms will be severe. The HRRR and local WRF indicate the
storm type will begin as discrete supercells possibly forming a
multicell line somewhere in the Permian Basin before pushing east
overnight. Large hail and even isolated tornadoes will be
possible so this situation will need to be closely monitored over
the next several hours especially given this is a holiday weekend.

Conditions set up much the same tomorrow with abundant low level
moisture and afternoon heating leading to a great deal of
instability. The one thing lacking will be an upper trigger so
convection tomorrow may not be quite as widespread as expected
today, though the severe threat will certainly exist. Storms are
expected to move fast enough that the flash flood threat will be
isolated to a few cells exhibiting deviant motion; however, a
linear complex today could produce enough rainfall to increase a
more widespread flash flood threat Wednesday.

Southwest upper flow will continue through Thursday thanks to a
very slow moving low currently over southern California. This will
continue the thunderstorm threat into Tuesday before a cold front
arrives Wednesday providing a more stable boundary layer and a
transition to weaker convection. The low will move east of the
area Thursday night and northerly flow will end rain chances for
the end of the week and into the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  86  63  78 /  40  40  50  60
Carlsbad                       63  94  63  81 /  20  10  20  50
Dryden                         68  89  69  86 /  40  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  67  91  67  84 /  30  30  40  50
Guadalupe Pass                 63  86  60  76 /  20  10  20  40
Hobbs                          61  88  60  76 /  20  20  40  50
Marfa                          55  85  55  80 /  30  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  90  66  80 /  30  30  40  50
Odessa                         67  90  66  80 /  30  30  40  50
Wink                           66  94  65  84 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
247
FXUS64 KMAF 292330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms have decreased in coverage since 21Z and have left a TEMPO
group in for HOB until 01Z. A boundry moving s from the Lubbock area
may result in storms redeveloping later, but for the short-term
the CAP on 00Z soundings looks to be precluding storms. We have
brought in MVFR CIGS at MAF around 09Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Broken to overcast skies have kept convection at bay so far, but
satellite and radar are showing developing showers in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where clouds are more scattered,
beginning a round of thunderstorms across much of the area.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will produce CAPE values in excess
of 4000 J/kg and combined with 0-6km shear of 35-50kts will ensure
some storms will be severe. The HRRR and local WRF indicate the
storm type will begin as discrete supercells possibly forming a
multicell line somewhere in the Permian Basin before pushing east
overnight. Large hail and even isolated tornadoes will be
possible so this situation will need to be closely monitored over
the next several hours especially given this is a holiday weekend.

Conditions set up much the same tomorrow with abundant low level
moisture and afternoon heating leading to a great deal of
instability. The one thing lacking will be an upper trigger so
convection tomorrow may not be quite as widespread as expected
today, though the severe threat will certainly exist. Storms are
expected to move fast enough that the flash flood threat will be
isolated to a few cells exhibiting deviant motion; however, a
linear complex today could produce enough rainfall to increase a
more widespread flash flood threat Wednesday.

Southwest upper flow will continue through Thursday thanks to a
very slow moving low currently over southern California. This will
continue the thunderstorm threat into Tuesday before a cold front
arrives Wednesday providing a more stable boundary layer and a
transition to weaker convection. The low will move east of the
area Thursday night and northerly flow will end rain chances for
the end of the week and into the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  85  64  86 /  60  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       63  93  63  94 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         69  88  68  89 /  50  40  40  30
Fort Stockton                  67  90  67  91 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  84  63  86 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          61  89  61  88 /  30  40  20  20
Marfa                          56  85  55  85 /  20  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           66  89  67  90 /  50  50  30  30
Odessa                         67  89  67  90 /  50  50  30  30
Wink                           67  93  66  94 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
802
FXUS64 KMAF 291920
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Broken to overcast skies have kept convection at bay so far, but
satellite and radar are showing developing showers in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where clouds are more scattered,
beginning a round of thunderstorms across much of the area.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will produce CAPE values in excess
of 4000 J/kg and combined with 0-6km shear of 35-50kts will ensure
some storms will be severe. The HRRR and local WRF indicate the
storm type will begin as discrete supercells possibly forming a
multicell line somewhere in the Permian Basin before pushing east
overnight. Large hail and even isolated tornadoes will be
possible so this situation will need to be closely monitored over
the next several hours especially given this is a holiday weekend.

Conditions set up much the same tomorrow with abundant low level
moisture and afternoon heating leading to a great deal of
instability. The one thing lacking will be an upper trigger so
convection tomorrow may not be quite as widespread as expected
today, though the severe threat will certainly exist. Storms are
expected to move fast enough that the flash flood threat will be
isolated to a few cells exhibiting deviant motion; however, a
linear complex today could produce enough rainfall to increase a
more widespread flash flood threat Wednesday.

Southwest upper flow will continue through Thursday thanks to a
very slow moving low currently over southern California. This will
continue the thunderstorm threat into Tuesday before a cold front
arrives Wednesday providing a more stable boundary layer and a
transition to weaker convection. The low will move east of the
area Thursday night and northerly flow will end rain chances for
the end of the week and into the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  85  64  86 /  60  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       63  93  63  94 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         69  88  68  89 /  50  40  40  30
Fort Stockton                  67  90  67  91 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  84  63  86 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          61  89  61  88 /  30  40  20  20
Marfa                          56  85  55  85 /  20  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           66  89  67  90 /  50  50  30  30
Odessa                         67  89  67  90 /  50  50  30  30
Wink                           67  93  66  94 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/10
404
FXUS64 KMAF 291759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Low cigs have cleared with VFR conditions now across the area.
Storms are expected to initiate across western portions of the
region this afternoon and move east this evening. Gusty winds and
low visibilities are possible in and near these storms. Low
clouds are again a possibility overnight as high moisture values
remain in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  88  67  90 /  40  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       63  92  61  93 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         71  86  67  90 /  20  40  30  30
Fort Stockton                  69  90  67  91 /  10  40  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 63  87  59  84 /   0  20  10  10
Hobbs                          63  86  61  92 /  20  30  20  20
Marfa                          52  87  53  84 /  10  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           64  89  69  91 /  30  30  20  30
Odessa                         65  90  69  90 /  20  30  20  30
Wink                           65  93  65  95 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
719
FXUS64 KMAF 291041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to continue to impact the terminals
until around 16z. Winds are expected to be elevated out of the
south to southeast today. There is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across the area but do not know exactly
where storms will develop so did not put TSRA into the TAFs for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Between last night`s convection, and upcoming active synoptic
pattern, and a well blowout near KCNM, it has been a busy shift, so
not many changes to the forecast.

WV imagery shows the upper trough just making landfall in SoCal,
w/an upper jet rounding the base of this feature and nosing into
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  At the sfc, the dryline is
backed all the way up against the mtns, w/a Td of 56F noted at KGDP.
Over KMAF, VAD profiler shows stout return flow continuing to
advect plenty of Gulf moisture into the area, for another round of
convection today as shortwaves move into the region thru SW flow
aloft.  Deep lyr shear of 40-50kts will support supercells
once convection gets going.  Forecast soundings show mucapes in
excess of 2500J/kg in the Permian Basin at 00Z Monday, w/mid-lvl LRs
of 7C/km or better for a large hail threat. Inverted V profiles and
Dcapes around 1000J/kg or better suggest a damaging wind threat, as
well. Not so sure about the tornado threat, as LCLs look high and
helicities low.

Upper trough is forecast to creep along the U.S./Mexico border thru
midweek, opening and finally moving thru the area Wednesday night,
w/convection tapering off Thursday as the trough exits east.
Forecast soundings suggest a severe threat along and east of the
dryline daily thru then, and we`ll mention this in the HWO. Temps
should stay near normal thru Tuesday, than take a dive Wed/Thu as
thicknesses fall w/the arrival of the trough...then stay blo-normal
into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  61  88  67 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       94  63  92  61 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                         93  71  86  67 /  30  20  40  30
Fort Stockton                  93  69  90  67 /  40  10  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 90  63  87  59 /  10   0  20  10
Hobbs                          91  63  86  61 /  40  20  30  20
Marfa                          88  52  87  53 /  30  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           92  64  89  69 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                         91  65  90  69 /  40  20  30  20
Wink                           96  65  93  65 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
886
FXUS64 KMAF 291000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Between last night`s convection, and upcoming active synoptic
pattern, and a well blowout near KCNM, it has been a busy shift, so
not many changes to the forecast.

WV imagery shows the upper trough just making landfall in SoCal,
w/an upper jet rounding the base of this feature and nosing into
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  At the sfc, the dryline is
backed all the way up against the mtns, w/a Td of 56F noted at KGDP.
Over KMAF, VAD profiler shows stout return flow continuing to
advect plenty of Gulf moisture into the area, for another round of
convection today as shortwaves move into the region thru SW flow
aloft.  Deep lyr shear of 40-50kts will support supercells
once convection gets going.  Forecast soundings show mucapes in
excess of 2500J/kg in the Permian Basin at 00Z Monday, w/mid-lvl LRs
of 7C/km or better for a large hail threat. Inverted V profiles and
Dcapes around 1000J/kg or better suggest a damaging wind threat, as
well. Not so sure about the tornado threat, as LCLs look high and
helicities low.

Upper trough is forecast to creep along the U.S./Mexico border thru
midweek, opening and finally moving thru the area Wednesday night,
w/convection tapering off Thursday as the trough exits east.
Forecast soundings suggest a severe threat along and east of the
dryline daily thru then, and we`ll mention this in the HWO. Temps
should stay near normal thru Tuesday, than take a dive Wed/Thu as
thicknesses fall w/the arrival of the trough...then stay blo-normal
into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  61  88  67 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       94  63  92  61 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                         93  71  86  67 /  30  20  40  30
Fort Stockton                  93  69  90  67 /  40  10  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 90  63  87  59 /  10   0  20  10
Hobbs                          91  63  86  61 /  40  20  30  20
Marfa                          88  52  87  53 /  30  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           92  64  89  69 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                         91  65  90  69 /  40  20  30  20
Wink                           96  65  93  65 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/44
390
FXUS64 KMAF 290455
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds are expected to develop and move into the area just
after 09z and move out/dissipate around 16z. Winds are expected to
remain elevated out of the south to southeast overnight through
Sunday afternoon across the area. There is a chance of
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon especially for MAF and FST but will
withhold putting in the TAFs at this time.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A line of cumulus just southeast of Midland appears to mark the
location of the dryline retreating west this afternoon. A visual
look at the clouds shows there is not much vertical development so
far, most likely due to the presence of an upper ridge axis
directly overhead. If afternoon heating does manage to break the
cap this afternoon, there will be the potential for isolated to
scattered storms in the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans
Pecos and one or two could become severe. Tomorrow storm chances
increase as the ridge axis shifts east and a favorably timed
disturbance arrives during the afternoon. Shear and instability
will be enough to support severe convection and SPC has expanded
the slight risk of severe weather south to include the entire
Permian Basin and much of the Trans Pecos on the latest SWODY2.
Did not mention severe weather in the forecast this afternoon due
to it`s isolated nature (if it happens at all), but did add severe
wording to the forecast for tomorrow afternoon with greater
coverage expected.

Rain chances will continue through Wednesday as an upper low
currently over California slowly moves east across the
southwestern U.S. and into the southern Plains. The increased
moisture will help modify temps the next several days with warm
lows and highs holding to the upper 80s to lower 90s as opposed to
upper 90s/low 100s seen a few days ago. Northwest flow on the
backside of the low will end rain chances late Thursday but will
also bring a cold front south keeping high temps below normal to
end the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  85  65  85 /  30  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       64  94  63  94 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                         69  88  70  86 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton                  69  91  68  87 /  20  40  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  20
Hobbs                          63  88  63  87 /  20  40  20  30
Marfa                          54  87  57  85 /  10  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  89  68  88 /  20  40  30  30
Odessa                         69  89  68  88 /  20  40  20  30
Wink                           69  94  68  92 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
771
FXUS64 KMAF 282328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

VFR conditions will continue through this evening with isolated
storms across the Permian Basin. Decided against including TSRA in
MAF TAF at this time but will continue to monitor current radar
trends and amend if needed. Low stratus will develop late
tonight/early Sunday, affecting HOB, MAF, INK and FST through mid-
late morning with VFR conditions returning by noon. Otherwise,
elevated SE winds expected to persist through much of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A line of cumulus just southeast of Midland appears to mark the
location of the dryline retreating west this afternoon. A visual
look at the clouds shows there is not much vertical development so
far, most likely due to the presence of an upper ridge axis
directly overhead. If afternoon heating does manage to break the
cap this afternoon, there will be the potential for isolated to
scattered storms in the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans
Pecos and one or two could become severe. Tomorrow storm chances
increase as the ridge axis shifts east and a favorably timed
disturbance arrives during the afternoon. Shear and instability
will be enough to support severe convection and SPC has expanded
the slight risk of severe weather south to include the entire
Permian Basin and much of the Trans Pecos on the latest SWODY2.
Did not mention severe weather in the forecast this afternoon due
to it`s isolated nature (if it happens at all), but did add severe
wording to the forecast for tomorrow afternoon with greater
coverage expected.

Rain chances will continue through Wednesday as an upper low
currently over California slowly moves east across the
southwestern U.S. and into the southern Plains. The increased
moisture will help modify temps the next several days with warm
lows and highs holding to the upper 80s to lower 90s as opposed to
upper 90s/low 100s seen a few days ago. Northwest flow on the
backside of the low will end rain chances late Thursday but will
also bring a cold front south keeping high temps below normal to
end the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  85  65  85 /  30  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       64  94  63  94 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                         69  88  70  86 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton                  69  91  68  87 /  20  40  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  20
Hobbs                          63  88  63  87 /  20  40  20  30
Marfa                          54  87  57  85 /  10  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  89  68  88 /  20  40  30  30
Odessa                         69  89  68  88 /  20  40  20  30
Wink                           69  94  68  92 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
751
FXUS64 KMAF 281932
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A line of cumulus just southeast of Midland appears to mark the
location of the dryline retreating west this afternoon. A visual
look at the clouds shows there is not much vertical development so
far, most likely due to the presence of an upper ridge axis
directly overhead. If afternoon heating does manage to break the
cap this afternoon, there will be the potential for isolated to
scattered storms in the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans
Pecos and one or two could become severe. Tomorrow storm chances
increase as the ridge axis shifts east and a favorably timed
disturbance arrives during the afternoon. Shear and instability
will be enough to support severe convection and SPC has expanded
the slight risk of severe weather south to include the entire
Permian Basin and much of the Trans Pecos on the latest SWODY2.
Did not mention severe weather in the forecast this afternoon due
to it`s isolated nature (if it happens at all), but did add severe
wording to the forecast for tomorrow afternoon with greater
coverage expected.

Rain chances will continue through Wednesday as an upper low
currently over California slowly moves east across the
southwestern U.S. and into the southern Plains. The increased
moisture will help modify temps the next several days with warm
lows and highs holding to the upper 80s to lower 90s as opposed to
upper 90s/low 100s seen a few days ago. Northwest flow on the
backside of the low will end rain chances late Thursday but will
also bring a cold front south keeping high temps below normal to
end the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  85  65  85 /  30  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       64  94  63  94 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                         69  88  70  86 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton                  69  91  68  87 /  10  40  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  20
Hobbs                          63  88  63  87 /  20  40  20  30
Marfa                          54  87  57  85 /  10  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  89  68  88 /  20  40  30  30
Odessa                         69  89  68  88 /  20  40  20  30
Wink                           69  94  68  92 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/10
307
FXUS64 KMAF 281656
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will remain in place through today. A few storms
are possible across the Permian Basin, but should remain fairly
isolated. Low clouds will move in overnight and persist through
the morning hours Sunday before clearing by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  87  68  87 /  30  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       61  93  60  95 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                         73  88  71  88 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Stockton                  69  91  68  91 /  20  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  87  63  85 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                          63  86  63  90 /  20  40  20  20
Marfa                          51  87  54  87 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           67  87  68  90 /  30  40  30  30
Odessa                         67  87  68  90 /  30  40  30  30
Wink                           69  93  68  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
878
FXUS64 KMAF 280938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
438 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will back today as return flow surges NW into West Texas.
Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline along the eastern fringes of
the CWA, and this should begin moving back into the area
w/strengthening flow, first thru KFST, then KMAF, then KINK/KPEQ.
Convective temps will be reached behind the dryline as it moves
NW, resulting in high-based cu 8-13 kft agl. A 40+kt LLJ is
forecast to develop near the end of the forecast period, ushering
in a stratus deck after 06Z. Buffer soundings suggest a few hours
of LIFR cigs at KFST, IFR at KHOB/KINK, and MVFR at KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Central Plains with another upper trough
developing just off the southern coast of California.  The area is
under westerly flow aloft with a dryline expected this afternoon
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.  There is a
chance of storms across this area beginning this afternoon.  Due to
good CAPE, bulk shear, and lapse rates, some of the storms today
could become strong to severe.  Upper lift is expected to increase
this evening into tonight, so strong to severe storms will be more
likely then.  Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be
slightly warmer than yesterday but still near normal values.

Rain and storm chances increase across the area on Sunday as the
dryline moves back toward the western Permian Basin.  Temperatures
are also expected to cool to slightly below normal with an increase
in moisture and cloud cover.  Similar to today, the storm parameters
look good but upper lift will be lacking until Sunday evening
allowing for another chance of strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.  Storm chances continue into Monday
with the dryline backed up to the Upper Trans Pecos.  Temperatures
are expected to be near normal for Monday with highs ranging from
the mid 80s to mid 90s across the CWA except the Big Bend and Rio
Grande Valley areas.  Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday
except the dryline will likely be further east into the Permian
Basin.  Precipitation chances increase for Wednesday as an upper
trough moves over the Midwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to cool into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Permian
Basin.  Temperatures will remain below normal into next weekend with
a chance of precipitation in the forecast every day through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       92  61  93  60 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         91  73  88  71 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  91  68 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 87  61  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          91  63  86  63 /   0  20  40  20
Marfa                          87  51  87  54 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Odessa                         93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Wink                           94  69  93  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
948
FXUS64 KMAF 280923
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
423 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Central Plains with another upper trough
developing just off the southern coast of California.  The area is
under westerly flow aloft with a dryline expected this afternoon
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.  There is a
chance of storms across this area beginning this afternoon.  Due to
good CAPE, bulk shear, and lapse rates, some of the storms today
could become strong to severe.  Upper lift is expected to increase
this evening into tonight, so strong to severe storms will be more
likely then.  Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be
slightly warmer than yesterday but still near normal values.

Rain and storm chances increase across the area on Sunday as the
dryline moves back toward the western Permian Basin.  Temperatures
are also expected to cool to slightly below normal with an increase
in moisture and cloud cover.  Similar to today, the storm parameters
look good but upper lift will be lacking until Sunday evening
allowing for another chance of strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.  Storm chances continue into Monday
with the dryline backed up to the Upper Trans Pecos.  Temperatures
are expected to be near normal for Monday with highs ranging from
the mid 80s to mid 90s across the CWA except the Big Bend and Rio
Grande Valley areas.  Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday
except the dryline will likely be further east into the Permian
Basin.  Precipitation chances increase for Wednesday as an upper
trough moves over the Midwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to cool into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Permian
Basin.  Temperatures will remain below normal into next weekend with
a chance of precipitation in the forecast every day through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       92  61  93  60 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         91  73  88  71 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  91  68 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 87  61  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          91  63  86  63 /   0  20  40  20
Marfa                          87  51  87  54 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Odessa                         93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Wink                           94  69  93  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
189
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will back today as return flow surges NW into West Texas.
Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline just east of the CWA, and
this should begin moving back into the area w/strengthening flow,
first thru KFST, then KMAF, then KINK/KPEQ. Convective temps will
be reached behind the dryline as it moves NW, resulting in high-
based cu 10-14 kft agl. A 40+kt LLJ is forecast to develop near
the end of the forecast period, but any resulting stratus
advection should occur after 06Z Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  65  87  65 /  10  20  40  40
Carlsbad                       94  62  97  64 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         93  69  91  70 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  95  68  95  69 /  10  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          92  63  88  62 /   0  10  40  20
Marfa                          88  51  89  56 /   0   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           95  68  90  69 /  10  20  40  30
Odessa                         95  68  91  69 /  10  20  40  30
Wink                           96  69  96  68 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
406
FXUS64 KMAF 272256
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all area terminals. Currently have gusty
westerly winds across the region this evening under sunny skies.
Gusts will subside over the next hour or two and back to the SW,
remaining below 10kt overnight. Otherwise, S/SE winds expected
Saturday with elevated gusts at MAF and FST through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  94  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       56  94  62  97 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         65  93  69  91 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  61  95  68  95 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  60  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          54  92  63  88 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                          49  88  51  89 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           58  95  68  90 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                         60  95  68  91 /   0  10  20  40
Wink                           56  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
390
FXUS64 KMAF 271901
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  94  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       56  94  62  97 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         65  93  69  91 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  61  95  68  95 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  60  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          54  92  63  88 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                          49  88  51  89 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           58  95  68  90 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                         60  95  68  91 /   0  10  20  40
Wink                           56  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
021
FXUS64 KMAF 271641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear skies. Winds this
afternoon will be west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds overnight
will generally become southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis
shows the dryline passing east thru KMAF and, according to the
models, will remain east of all terminals for the duration of the
forecast. Dry westerly flow can be expected today, w/convective
temps too high for cu development.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is beginning to pass over the central conus.
The dryline is across the Western Low Rolling Plains and far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with the thunderstorms east of
the CWA. The dryline will push east of the area by this afternoon
with west to southwest winds behind it.  Temperatures are expected
to be a little bit cooler today as height falls occur over the area.
Decided to stay on the warm side of guidance since guidance has been
too cool lately.

An active weather pattern is in store from Saturday through the end
of the forecast.  Various shortwaves and upper troughs will impact
the region keeping a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast.  The models are not in good agreement on the placement of
the rain through most of the forecast but it seems the best chances
will be across the northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through the
weekend but will cool to below normal next week.  A cold front will
move through the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area heading into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  60  94  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  94  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  60  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  53  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          83  42  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         93  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  57  97  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
242
FXUS64 KMAF 270919
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
419 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Lastest sfc analysis
shows the dryline passing east thru KMAF and, according to the
models, will remain east of all terminals for the duration of the
forecast.  Dry westerly flow can be expected today, w/convective
temps too high for cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is beginning to pass over the central conus.
The dryline is across the Western Low Rolling Plains and far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with the thunderstorms east of
the CWA. The dryline will push east of the area by this afternoon
with west to southwest winds behind it.  Temperatures are expected
to be a little bit cooler today as height falls occur over the area.
Decided to stay on the warm side of guidance since guidance has been
too cool lately.

An active weather pattern is in store from Saturday through the end
of the forecast.  Various shortwaves and upper troughs will impact
the region keeping a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast.  The models are not in good agreement on the placement of
the rain through most of the forecast but it seems the best chances
will be across the northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through the
weekend but will cool to below normal next week.  A cold front will
move through the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area heading into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  60  94  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  94  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  60  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  53  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          83  42  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         93  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  57  97  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
344
FXUS64 KMAF 270915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is beginning to pass over the central conus.
The dryline is across the Western Low Rolling Plains and far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with the thunderstorms east of
the CWA. The dryline will push east of the area by this afternoon
with west to southwest winds behind it.  Temperatures are expected
to be a little bit cooler today as height falls occur over the area.
Decided to stay on the warm side of guidance since guidance has been
too cool lately.

An active weather pattern is in store from Saturday through the end
of the forecast.  Various shortwaves and upper troughs will impact
the region keeping a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast.  The models are not in good agreement on the placement of
the rain through most of the forecast but it seems the best chances
will be across the northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through the
weekend but will cool to below normal next week.  A cold front will
move through the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area heading into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  60  94  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  94  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  60  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  53  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          83  42  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         93  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  57  97  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
458
FXUS64 KMAF 270526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Lastest sfc analysis
shows the dryline just west of KMAF and, according to the models,
this will be the farthest it retreats before westerlies kick in
and shunt it east of all terminals over the next few hours. Dry
westerly flow can be expected today, w/convective temps too high
for cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all area terminals. Currently have gusty
westerly winds across the region this evening with main areas of
convection remaining east of terminals. Gusts will subside over the
next couple of hours and remain aob 10kt overnight. Otherwise, gusty
west winds return mid morning Friday and persist through the
afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the active weather pattern over the
past several days continues to meander eastward today, currently
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The dryline has
again advanced to the east, similarly positioned to yesterday with
the dryline extending from just east of Gail and Big Spring
southwestward through Pecos and Brewster counties. Under the
influence of continued southwest flow and downslope warming,
temperatures are on track to climb above normal into the mid to
upper 80s across higher terrain and 90s to near 100 degrees across
lower elevations. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue into
this evening across portions of the area, and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

A few high-based storms have begun to develop this afternoon over
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Area and
northeastward into the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of the dryline.
Currently, these storms are not severe, though the potential for
severe storms will increase this afternoon and evening. An
unstable moist air mass exists just to the east of the dryline,
where CAPE values quickly increase to upwards of 3000 J/kg. The
greatest probability for severe weather will be along and to the
east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. 700-500mb lapse rates
will be 7-8C/km, and 0-6km shear will increase to 40-50kt through
this evening, allowing for organized convection. At this time,
large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
given increasing low-level shear through the evening hours, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional strong
storms are possible through this evening across the higher terrain
of the Big Bend Area and Davis Mountains northeastward to the
northern Permian Basin, where gusty wind, hail, and brief heavy
rain are possible.

Storm chances increase across the eastern half of the area
overnight as the aforementioned low finally ejects toward the
central plains, with the trough axis and associated Pacific front
moving through the area late tonight/early Friday morning. The
front is expected to interact with the retreating dryline,
increasing convergence and maintaining strong to severe storms
well into the overnight hours, especially across the Western Low
Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. By
Friday morning, storms should be east of the area, with dry
conditions and slightly cooler, near normal temperatures expected
across the area on Friday afternoon under quasi-zonal flow
aloft.

On Saturday, moisture return will allow for thunderstorm chances
to return to the Lower Trans Pecos, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected areawide. An active pattern then looks to
begin Sunday as the dryline redevelops over the area and backs up
against the higher terrain to the west, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Models
are in agreement regarding the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and lasting until at
least midweek next week, though given less dynamic support,
convection will be contingent on dryline location as well as the
timing of multiple shortwaves that look to traverse the area in
the southwest flow aloft. Given increased moisture as well as
expected cloudcover and precipitation, high temperatures from
Sunday onward look to be near to slightly below normal, with above
normal overnight lows.

FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air will remain for virtually the entire area through
Saturday. An upper trough currently bringing windy conditions west
of the Pecos River will move east tonight allowing winds to
subside Friday and Saturday so despite the very dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. There will be a
low potential for dry lightning (mainly in the Davis Mountains)
though isolated storm coverage will be a limiting factor. Light
winds Friday and Saturday could provide an opportunity for
controlled burning. Sunday the dryline will retreat west
increasing moisture levels and providing a good chance for showers
with the highest rain chances in the east and decreasing farther
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  60  91  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       89  55  93  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  90  60  93  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 80  57  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          86  54  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          81  41  88  50 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  60  94  67 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         91  60  94  67 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           92  57  95  68 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
778
FXUS64 KMAF 262321
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all area terminals. Currently have gusty
westerly winds across the region this evening with main areas of
convection remaining east of terminals. Gusts will subside over the
next couple of hours and remain aob 10kt overnight. Otherwise, gusty
west winds return mid morning Friday and persist through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the active weather pattern over the
past several days continues to meander eastward today, currently
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The dryline has
again advanced to the east, similarly positioned to yesterday with
the dryline extending from just east of Gail and Big Spring
southwestward through Pecos and Brewster counties. Under the
influence of continued southwest flow and downslope warming,
temperatures are on track to climb above normal into the mid to
upper 80s across higher terrain and 90s to near 100 degrees across
lower elevations. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue into
this evening across portions of the area, and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

A few high-based storms have begun to develop this afternoon over
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Area and
northeastward into the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of the dryline.
Currently, these storms are not severe, though the potential for
severe storms will increase this afternoon and evening. An
unstable moist air mass exists just to the east of the dryline,
where CAPE values quickly increase to upwards of 3000 J/kg. The
greatest probability for severe weather will be along and to the
east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. 700-500mb lapse rates
will be 7-8C/km, and 0-6km shear will increase to 40-50kt through
this evening, allowing for organized convection. At this time,
large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
given increasing low-level shear through the evening hours, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional strong
storms are possible through this evening across the higher terrain
of the Big Bend Area and Davis Mountains northeastward to the
northern Permian Basin, where gusty wind, hail, and brief heavy
rain are possible.

Storm chances increase across the eastern half of the area
overnight as the aforementioned low finally ejects toward the
central plains, with the trough axis and associated Pacific front
moving through the area late tonight/early Friday morning. The
front is expected to interact with the retreating dryline,
increasing convergence and maintaining strong to severe storms
well into the overnight hours, especially across the Western Low
Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. By
Friday morning, storms should be east of the area, with dry
conditions and slightly cooler, near normal temperatures expected
across the area on Friday afternoon under quasi-zonal flow
aloft.

On Saturday, moisture return will allow for thunderstorm chances
to return to the Lower Trans Pecos, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected areawide. An active pattern then looks to
begin Sunday as the dryline redevelops over the area and backs up
against the higher terrain to the west, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Models
are in agreement regarding the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and lasting until at
least midweek next week, though given less dynamic support,
convection will be contingent on dryline location as well as the
timing of multiple shortwaves that look to traverse the area in
the southwest flow aloft. Given increased moisture as well as
expected cloudcover and precipitation, high temperatures from
Sunday onward look to be near to slightly below normal, with above
normal overnight lows.

FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air will remain for virtually the entire area through
Saturday. An upper trough currently bringing windy conditions west
of the Pecos River will move east tonight allowing winds to
subside Friday and Saturday so despite the very dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. There will be a
low potential for dry lightning (mainly in the Davis Mountains)
though isolated storm coverage will be a limiting factor. Light
winds Friday and Saturday could provide an opportunity for
controlled burning. Sunday the dryline will retreat west
increasing moisture levels and providing a good chance for showers
with the highest rain chances in the east and decreasing farther
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  90  60  91 /  50  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       56  89  55  93 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  96  64  91 /  30  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  62  90  60  93 /  30   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  86  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  81  41  88 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  92  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Odessa                         62  91  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Wink                           57  92  57  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/72/
422
FXUS64 KMAF 261947
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the active weather pattern over the
past several days continues to meander eastward today, currently
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The dryline has
again advanced to the east, similarly positioned to yesterday with
the dryline extending from just east of Gail and Big Spring
southwestward through Pecos and Brewster counties. Under the
influence of continued southwest flow and downslope warming,
temperatures are on track to climb above normal into the mid to
upper 80s across higher terrain and 90s to near 100 degrees across
lower elevations. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue into
this evening across portions of the area, and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

A few high-based storms have begun to develop this afternoon over
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Area and
northeastward into the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of the dryline.
Currently, these storms are not severe, though the potential for
severe storms will increase this afternoon and evening. An
unstable moist air mass exists just to the east of the dryline,
where CAPE values quickly increase to upwards of 3000 J/kg. The
greatest probability for severe weather will be along and to the
east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. 700-500mb lapse rates
will be 7-8C/km, and 0-6km shear will increase to 40-50kt through
this evening, allowing for organized convection. At this time,
large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
given increasing low-level shear through the evening hours, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional strong
storms are possible through this evening across the higher terrain
of the Big Bend Area and Davis Mountains northeastward to the
northern Permian Basin, where gusty wind, hail, and brief heavy
rain are possible.

Storm chances increase across the eastern half of the area
overnight as the aforementioned low finally ejects toward the
central plains, with the trough axis and associated Pacific front
moving through the area late tonight/early Friday morning. The
front is expected to interact with the retreating dryline,
increasing convergence and maintaining strong to severe storms
well into the overnight hours, especially across the Western Low
Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. By
Friday morning, storms should be east of the area, with dry
conditions and slightly cooler, near normal temperatures expected
across the area on Friday afternoon under quasi-zonal flow
aloft.

On Saturday, moisture return will allow for thunderstorm chances
to return to the Lower Trans Pecos, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected areawide. An active pattern then looks to
begin Sunday as the dryline redevelops over the area and backs up
against the higher terrain to the west, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Models
are in agreement regarding the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and lasting until at
least midweek next week, though given less dynamic support,
convection will be contingent on dryline location as well as the
timing of multiple shortwaves that look to traverse the area in
the southwest flow aloft. Given increased moisture as well as
expected cloudcover and precipitation, high temperatures from
Sunday onward look to be near to slightly below normal, with above
normal overnight lows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air will remain for virtually the entire area through
Saturday. An upper trough currently bringing windy conditions west
of the Pecos River will move east tonight allowing winds to
subside Friday and Saturday so despite the very dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. There will be a
low potential for dry lightning (mainly in the Davis Mountains)
though isolated storm coverage will be a limiting factor. Light
winds Friday and Saturday could provide an opportunity for
controlled burning. Sunday the dryline will retreat west
increasing moisture levels and providing a good chance for showers
with the highest rain chances in the east and decreasing farther
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  90  60  91 /  50  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       56  89  55  93 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  96  64  91 /  30  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  62  90  60  93 /  30   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  86  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  81  41  88 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  92  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Odessa                         62  91  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Wink                           57  92  57  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

10/84
845
FXUS64 KMAF 261726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty west winds will subside around 02Z this evening, eventually
shifting from the southeast at MAF/INK/HOB with a retreating
dryline. Gusty west winds return tomorrow. VFR conditions
expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         95  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  96  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           97  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         96  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           96  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10
569
FXUS64 KMAF 261726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty west winds will subside around 02Z this evening, eventually
shifting from the southeast at MAF/INK/HOB with a retreating
dryline. Gusty west winds return tomorrow. VFR conditions
expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         95  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  96  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           97  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         96  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           96  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10
831
FXUS64 KMAF 261126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds have cleared from TAF sites with some light fog in the
HOB area. SW winds, albeit light, have already developed and this
will be the idea for the day as dryline moves e of MAF by 18Z.
Mid level winds are stronger today as a trough passes to the
north and as such windy conditions are expected, especially
CNM/HOB. Also water vapor does show some waves so there will
likely be turbulence INVOF mtns today. Models are fairly
consistent keeping precip just e of MAF/FST late PM and as such
have opted to keep low probability TSRA out of the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         93  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         93  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           94  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
928
FXUS64 KMAF 260929
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         93  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         93  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           94  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

49/80
835
FXUS64 KMAF 260658
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers in PEQ are decreasing and tstms concerns are decreasing
across the MAF/FST areas so no mention in TAFs. Most concern will
be winds across CNM/HOB later today when SW-W winds increase to
20-25kts. TSRA may be needed at MAF/FST after 21Z, but too low of
a probability to included ATTP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico is expected to produce isolated
thunderstorms across the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos region
this evening. Confidence was not high enough to mention at
KFST or any of the other terminals. Winds will become southeast
at 15 to 25 mph and gusty at KMAF, KINK, and KFST near sunset.
Winds should diminish and become south at 10 to 15 mph at these
locations by 06z to 09z Thursday. Winds will increase to 15 to
25 mph and gusty at all the terminals by mid to late Thursday
morning and continue Thursday afternoon.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another warm, dry, and breezy day today with moisture largely
confined to far eastern portions of the area ahead of the
advancing dryline. Per latest observations, the dryline has
moved east of Snyder and extends south to near Sterling City
before curving back to the west through eastern Pecos and Brewster
counties. The dryline is not expected to advance east of the Lower
Trans Pecos, thus there is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across Terrell county along the dryline with a slight
chance further west/northwest where storms could develop off of
higher terrain. Some storms, mainly across Terrell county, could
become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. To the west, critical fire
weather conditions will persist through this evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains due to the
warm, windy, and dry conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for details.

Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight as a shortwave moves
across northern Mexico and yields additional forcing as the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Storm chances tonight are
confined mainly along/south of I-10, with guidance suggesting the
potential for storms to grow upscale into an MCS over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and then quickly advance to the southeast. The
dryline will retreat west to the vicinity of the TX/NM state line
overnight, with near normal low temperatures in the 50s to around
60 degrees expected west of the dryline, and above normal lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s to the east.

On Thursday, height falls will begin to overspread the area ahead
of the advancing trough which will be located near the AZ/NM
state line by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler, though given continued southwest flow, downslope warming,
and deep mixing behind the dryline, have maintained highs above
MOS guidance given the continued trend of models under-forecasting
max temperatures. Thunderstorm chances exist along and ahead of
the dryline late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, mainly
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and
Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase overnight
Thursday as the trough begins to eject to the Central Plains and
an accompanying Pacific front moves through the area. Convergence
will be enhanced as the front interacts with the dryline,
resulting in strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

By Friday, moisture will be shunted to the east of the area with
dry conditions expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be closer to
normal in the mid 80s and 90s, with similar conditions expected
Saturday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few thunderstorms
possible across the Lower Trans Pecos as moisture begins to return
to the region. An active pattern looks to return Sunday as the
dryline redevelops over the area, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
through at least midweek next week due to multiple shortwaves in
the flow aloft and continued dryline influence, with temperatures
near to just above normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical conditions continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon, and will persist into
this evening before winds subside. Recovery will be poor again
tonight over these same areas with good recovery expected along
and east of a Maljamar to Fort Stockton to Big Bend line. More
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Thursday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains. The Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau,
Davis Mountains and portions of the northwest Permian Basin may
need to be added to the Watch, but later shifts will have to make
the final call since winds appear borderline right now. Southwest
winds are expected to increase earlier on Thursday so the start
time of the Fire Weather Watch has been backed up to 26/15Z and
will be in effect until 27/03Z. Temperatures will warm around 10
degrees above normal Thursday afternoon, RH/s will drop to 5 to 10
percent and the Haines Index will be 5 or 6 in these areas also.

Poor recovery will occur again Thursday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line. The base of an upper storm system will
move over the region on Friday, and at this time wind speeds do
not appear to be as strong as today or Thursday. Temperatures will
also not be as hot on Friday, but it will still be dry with
minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 10 percent expected areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  89  62 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  54  89  56 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         94  67  95  64 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  60  91  60 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 81  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  53  85  55 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  81  43 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  61  91  60 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         94  61  90  61 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           95  55  93  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT this morning through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning
     through this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
606
FXUS64 KMAF 252258
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico is expected to produce isolated
thunderstorms across the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos region
this evening. Confidence was not high enough to mention at
KFST or any of the other terminals. Winds will become southeast
at 15 to 25 mph and gusty at KMAF, KINK, and KFST near sunset.
Winds should diminish and become south at 10 to 15 mph at these
locations by 06z to 09z Thursday. Winds will increase to 15 to
25 mph and gusty at all the terminals by mid to late Thursday
morning and continue Thursday afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another warm, dry, and breezy day today with moisture largely
confined to far eastern portions of the area ahead of the
advancing dryline. Per latest observations, the dryline has
moved east of Snyder and extends south to near Sterling City
before curving back to the west through eastern Pecos and Brewster
counties. The dryline is not expected to advance east of the Lower
Trans Pecos, thus there is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across Terrell county along the dryline with a slight
chance further west/northwest where storms could develop off of
higher terrain. Some storms, mainly across Terrell county, could
become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. To the west, critical fire
weather conditions will persist through this evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains due to the
warm, windy, and dry conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for details.

Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight as a shortwave moves
across northern Mexico and yields additional forcing as the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Storm chances tonight are
confined mainly along/south of I-10, with guidance suggesting the
potential for storms to grow upscale into an MCS over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and then quickly advance to the southeast. The
dryline will retreat west to the vicinity of the TX/NM state line
overnight, with near normal low temperatures in the 50s to around
60 degrees expected west of the dryline, and above normal lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s to the east.

On Thursday, height falls will begin to overspread the area ahead
of the advancing trough which will be located near the AZ/NM
state line by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler, though given continued southwest flow, downslope warming,
and deep mixing behind the dryline, have maintained highs above
MOS guidance given the continued trend of models under-forecasting
max temperatures. Thunderstorm chances exist along and ahead of
the dryline late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, mainly
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and
Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase overnight
Thursday as the trough begins to eject to the Central Plains and
an accompanying Pacific front moves through the area. Convergence
will be enhanced as the front interacts with the dryline,
resulting in strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

By Friday, moisture will be shunted to the east of the area with
dry conditions expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be closer to
normal in the mid 80s and 90s, with similar conditions expected
Saturday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few thunderstorms
possible across the Lower Trans Pecos as moisture begins to return
to the region. An active pattern looks to return Sunday as the
dryline redevelops over the area, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
through at least midweek next week due to multiple shortwaves in
the flow aloft and continued dryline influence, with temperatures
near to just above normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical conditions continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon, and will persist into
this evening before winds subside. Recovery will be poor again
tonight over these same areas with good recovery expected along
and east of a Maljamar to Fort Stockton to Big Bend line. More
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Thursday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains. The Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau,
Davis Mountains and portions of the northwest Permian Basin may
need to be added to the Watch, but later shifts will have to make
the final call since winds appear borderline right now. Southwest
winds are expected to increase earlier on Thursday so the start
time of the Fire Weather Watch has been backed up to 26/15Z and
will be in effect until 27/03Z. Temperatures will warm around 10
degrees above normal Thursday afternoon, RH/s will drop to 5 to 10
percent and the Haines Index will be 5 or 6 in these areas also.

Poor recovery will occur again Thursday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line. The base of an upper storm system will
move over the region on Friday, and at this time wind speeds do
not appear to be as strong as today or Thursday. Temperatures will
also not be as hot on Friday, but it will still be dry with
minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 10 percent expected areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  64  89 /  10  20  50  10
Carlsbad                       61  91  54  89 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         73  94  67  95 /  40  40  40  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  60  91 /  20  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  88  53  85 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          54  87  45  81 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  95  61  91 /  10  20  30   0
Odessa                         69  94  61  90 /  10  10  30   0
Wink                           65  95  55  93 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/84
200
FXUS64 KMAF 251951
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another warm, dry, and breezy day today with moisture largely
confined to far eastern portions of the area ahead of the
advancing dryline. Per latest observations, the dryline has
moved east of Snyder and extends south to near Sterling City
before curving back to the west through eastern Pecos and Brewster
counties. The dryline is not expected to advance east of the Lower
Trans Pecos, thus there is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across Terrell county along the dryline with a slight
chance further west/northwest where storms could develop off of
higher terrain. Some storms, mainly across Terrell county, could
become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. To the west, critical fire
weather conditions will persist through this evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains due to the
warm, windy, and dry conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for details.

Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight as a shortwave moves
across northern Mexico and yields additional forcing as the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Storm chances tonight are
confined mainly along/south of I-10, with guidance suggesting the
potential for storms to grow upscale into an MCS over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and then quickly advance to the southeast. The
dryline will retreat west to the vicinity of the TX/NM state line
overnight, with near normal low temperatures in the 50s to around
60 degrees expected west of the dryline, and above normal lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s to the east.

On Thursday, height falls will begin to overspread the area ahead
of the advancing trough which will be located near the AZ/NM
state line by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler, though given continued southwest flow, downslope warming,
and deep mixing behind the dryline, have maintained highs above
MOS guidance given the continued trend of models under-forecasting
max temperatures. Thunderstorm chances exist along and ahead of
the dryline late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, mainly
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and
Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase overnight
Thursday as the trough begins to eject to the Central Plains and
an accompanying Pacific front moves through the area. Convergence
will be enhanced as the front interacts with the dryline,
resulting in strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

By Friday, moisture will be shunted to the east of the area with
dry conditions expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be closer to
normal in the mid 80s and 90s, with similar conditions expected
Saturday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few thunderstorms
possible across the Lower Trans Pecos as moisture begins to return
to the region. An active pattern looks to return Sunday as the
dryline redevelops over the area, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
through at least midweek next week due to multiple shortwaves in
the flow aloft and continued dryline influence, with temperatures
near to just above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical conditions continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon, and will persist into
this evening before winds subside. Recovery will be poor again
tonight over these same areas with good recovery expected along
and east of a Maljamar to Fort Stockton to Big Bend line. More
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Thursday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains. The Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau,
Davis Mountains and portions of the northwest Permian Basin may
need to be added to the Watch, but later shifts will have to make
the final call since winds appear borderline right now. Southwest
winds are expected to increase earlier on Thursday so the start
time of the Fire Weather Watch has been backed up to 26/15Z and
will be in effect until 27/03Z. Temperatures will warm around 10
degrees above normal Thursday afternoon, RH/s will drop to 5 to 10
percent and the Haines Index will be 5 or 6 in these areas also.

Poor recovery will occur again Thursday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line. The base of an upper storm system will
move over the region on Friday, and at this time wind speeds do
not appear to be as strong as today or Thursday. Temperatures will
also not be as hot on Friday, but it will still be dry with
minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 10 percent expected areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  64  89 /  10  20  50  10
Carlsbad                       61  91  54  89 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         73  94  67  95 /  40  40  40  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  60  91 /  20  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  88  53  85 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          54  87  45  81 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  95  61  91 /  10  20  30   0
Odessa                         69  94  61  90 /  10  10  30   0
Wink                           65  95  55  93 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/84
289
FXUS64 KMAF 251639
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Update to increase high temperatures and adjust PoPs, which will
include the latest Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The dryline is mixing eastward late this morning and expect it to
make it to the eastern fringe of the Permian Basin this afternoon,
but think it will get hung up southwestward across the Lower Trans
Pecos.  High temperatures will likely warm above forecast values due
to westerly downslope winds compressing and warming the air,
especially in areas where rainfall has been scarce lately.  Despite
extensive high cloud over the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos,
temperatures will warm to levels a degree or two higher than
yesterday.  The atmosphere will become very unstable over the Lower
Trans Pecos where dewpoints will stay near 70 F, but instability
will be low farther west through the Big Bend.

There is some darkening on Water Vapor Imagery, which is indicative
a shortwave trough, translating northeastward over the Mexican state
of Chihuahua.  The right rear quadrant of a 100+kt h25 jet will also
be moving over these areas.  Think these factors could aid
thunderstorm development over the Big Bend region through the
afternoon with high based storms capable of gusty winds due to a dry
subcloud layer.  Thunderstorms could also develop over the Lower
Trans Pecos through late afternoon as the cap weakens.  Since shear
is plentiful and lapse rates steep, and considering the unstable
atmosphere there, large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning strikes will be possible with any storms in these
areas.  Think the dryline will move far enough east over the Permian
Basin so will remove PoPs in these areas for this afternoon.  Will
send an update shortly to account for the changes to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Southwest winds will remain gusty through the afternoon,
but will decrease this evening.  Thunderstorms could develop near
KFST through 26/00Z, if not KMAF through 26/06Z.  Since probability
is low, will not mention TSRA in this issuance.  Low clouds and fog
will form late tonight and possibly affect KMAF and KHOB though
26/14Z.  Will hold off on adding any lower conditions at either site
since the dryline may begin to move east and keep the lower
conditions east of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         97  74  92  70 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                 100  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 88  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          94  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                        101  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                          101  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
818
FXUS64 KMAF 251112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS/VSBY have been in and out of KMAF/KHOB, especially since high
clouds are thinning. These MVFR conditions will dissipate by mid
morning, probably before 15Z has the moisture is still pretty
shallow (~85h). The dryline will push e again today with SW-W
winds of 15-20kts in its wake at the TAFS sites. As dryline
retreats this evening s-se winds will increase at MAF/FST/INK/PEQ.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  92  70 /  20  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  96  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 87  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         98  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
089
FXUS64 KMAF 250919
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  92  70 /  20  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  96  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 87  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         98  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/80
445
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The dryline has returned as far w as KINK and near KHOB. E of
dryline S-SE winds around 15kts are prevailing and they will do
so thru most of the early morning. MVFR CIGS are expect at KMAF
btwn 11Z-14Z. The dryline will then push e again today with SW-W
winds of 15-20kts in its wake at the TAFS sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Dryline slowly moving back to the west with the wind shifting back
around to the south. Gusts have started to drop off as lower wind
speeds expected for this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs
possible at MAF before sunrise... otherwise VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  72  90  64 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  62  93  56 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         96  73  93  67 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton                  98  71  94  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 88  59  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  62  89  56 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          90  55  86  48 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  71  94  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         99  71  93  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  67  95  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
842
FXUS64 KMAF 250000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
700 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Dryline slowly moving back to the west with the wind shifting back
around to the south. Gusts have started to drop off as lower wind
speeds expected for this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs
possible at MAF before sunrise... otherwise VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  97  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       60  97  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         72  96  73  93 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  98  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 58  88  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  95  62  89 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                          52  90  55  86 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71 100  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  99  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           63  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
007
FXUS64 KMAF 241939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  97  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       60  97  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         72  96  73  93 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  98  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 58  88  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  95  62  89 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                          52  90  55  86 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71 100  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  99  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           63  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/84
160
FXUS64 KMAF 241706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southwest to west winds will affect all area terminals this
afternoon, but will diminish this evening.  VFR conditions will
prevail until late tonight when MVFR ceilings, and perhaps
visibility in fog, will affect KMAF and KHOB.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Dryline has retreated into the wrn CWFA and is seen quite well on
the IR satellite imagery. it will reside in the western CWFA only
this morning and by 18Z it will e of or near a Lamesa...Midland...
Big Bend Line. A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside
just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. There were
several 100-102 readings and 109-111 at Rio Grande Village
yesterday and expect that will again be the case today. MOS looks
to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be
warmer than MOS. Not sure how MOS is coming up dwpnts so high w of
the dryline either. This will generally be the trend for Wed too,
maybe even moreso since the mid level flow will probably be more
veered. Dryline will hang up across the far south as it likes to
do. CINH does show some signs of weakening across the far Lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon and storms would be severe if they
develop. Elsewhere convective initiation will be hard to come by
thru Wed PM. ATTP will opt to downplay storms this morning and Wed
AM, despite GFS` higher PoPs. Storms are more likely Thur across
the PB/Trans Pecos with the dryline farther w and mid level height
falls. A weak Pacific front late Thur night or Fri AM along with a
75-80kt 3h speed max may be sufficient for nocturnal tstms, but
dry air will encompass all of the CWFA Fri PM. A few dryline
storms may return Sat/Sun PM, but moreso on Sun when there is more
likely to be a 3h jet max to the s. Otherwise there is some
cooling from Thur onward but still repetitively hot/dry across the
wrn half of the CWFA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds across the area are expected to be elevated and gusty out
of the southwest with winds of at least 20 mph across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico where the
atmosphere is in an very dry and unstable state, Haines Indices of
5-6. The southwest winds will contribute to compressional warming
with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Minimum RH
values this afternoon will be 15 percent or below along and to the
west of a line from around Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton.
Many places along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will
experience minimum RH values in the single digits. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon
and early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains and the
southeast New Mexico plains. Critical fire weather will remain
possible for Wednesday with similar conditions expected as on
Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the
same area for Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  70  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                      100  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  97  61 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                          100  63 100  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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