Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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844
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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