Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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629
FXUS64 KMAF 041131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting HOB and MAF this morning then possible TSRA this
afternoon. Currently have some scattered showers and thunderstorms
near PEQ and CNM this morning but will only include mention of
SHRA at CNM for now. Could see this activity affect other sites
through the morning and will make adjust if needed. Expect MVFR
cigs to affect MAF and HOB for a few hours this morning then
return to VFR by mid/late morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop across much of the region this afternoon but tough to
pinpoint a specific time and location. For now, will prevail TSRA
at CNM and HOB beginning mid afternoon and INK and MAF early
evening. As for PEQ and FST, will add mention of thunder when
timing is more clear. Some storms could be severe and capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. Adjustments will likely
be needed to timing. Otherwise, gusty SE winds expected once again
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through late tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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507
FXUS64 KMAF 040852
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  61  79  56  /  40  60  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              78  64  79  64  /  30  40  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                82  56  83  52  /  50  60  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  66  86  67  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  62  86  61  /  40  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  51  75  53  /  30  40  20   0
HOBBS NM                   75  60  78  54  /  50  80  40  20
MARFA TX                   80  50  80  45  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  63  80  62  /  30  50  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  63  80  61  /  30  50  40  20
WINK TX                    83  62  87  57  /  40  50  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through late tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27/72

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561
FXUS64 KMAF 040545
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Monday then possible TSRA. Currently have
some scattered showers and thunderstorms near PEQ and FST tonight
and will continue mention for the next few hours. Attm, don`t think
current activity will affect other sites but will continue to
monitor and make adjustments if/when needed. Persistent SE flow
across the region tonight will result in increased moisture and
therefore the development of low clouds. For now, only have mention
of MVFR at HOB and MAF where confidence is highest. Also, think
there will be a brief period of IFR at MAF and have added mention in
a TEMPO. Low cigs will lift late morning with the potential for
severe thunderstorms by the afternoon. Models indicate isolated
thunderstorms popping up by early afternoon but exact
timing/location is still uncertain. Highest confidence of TSRA
affecting terminals is at CNM and HOB so went ahead and added
prevailing -TSRA beginning at 04/21Z. Adjustments will likely be
needed to timing. Otherwise, gusty SE winds expected once again
Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the
CWA under SW flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis has shown a strong cap in
place this morning/afternoon, possible hindering development of a
stronger dryline.  However, this is starting to erode W-E, w/sat
imagery showing a weak shortwave moving into far West Texas.  Area
radars show convection trying to develop west of the Pecos...but
struggling.  However, w/continued heating/destabilization and the
aforementioned shortwave, activity should pick up over the next few
hrs and last into the evening.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls
begin across the desert CONUS.  Models bring a shortwave thru the
ern zones during the morning, and develop convection westward during
the day as large-scale ascent commences ahead of the trough and a
strong dryline develops against the wrn mtns.  Models, particularly
the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift
in the lwr levels invof the cap.  Mid-lvl LR`s increase during the
day, especially out west, and we`ll maintain a mention of svr during
the afternoon in the grids.  Monday night, as the trough moves into
the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the
Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading
E-NE.  Forecast PWATs remain high--near the climatological maximum
for May--and higher model QPFs have not changed much in 24 hrs,
remaining north of I-20 and mainly SE NM.  Attm, we see no reason to
change the going FFA.  Mid shift can expand if things change.  0-6km
bulk shear of 35-60kts is still forecast over the srn zones during
the evening, expanding north overnight.  Concurrent w/this, models
develop 0-3km SR helicities in excess of 150 ms/s2, and bring this
up thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains as well.  0-1km
SREH remains impressive as well, so we`ll keep a mention of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO.  Trough will continue exiting into the Central
Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the
NE.

Otherwise, temps will be back to near-normal by Wednesday, and
remain fairly persistent each day into the weekend under SW flow
aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a chance of
convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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340
FXUS64 KMAF 032333
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
633 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered TS moving across the area this evening most likely to
impact HOB/PEQ/INK/CNM the next few hours and possibly FST later
tonight. The main impact from this will be variable and gusty
winds. Closer to 12Z expecting MVFR or IFR CIGs to move north
affecting MAF and HOB. This cloud deck could possibly move into
PEQ, INK, and FST but confidence not high enough to put in those
TAFs at this time. VFR conditions expected to return around 18Z
with a chance for severe thunderstorms 04/18-05/00Z though this
has not been indicated in any of the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the
CWA under SW flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis has shown a strong cap in
place this morning/afternoon, possible hindering development of a
stronger dryline.  However, this is starting to erode W-E, w/sat
imagery showing a weak shortwave moving into far West Texas.  Area
radars show convection trying to develop west of the Pecos...but
struggling.  However, w/continued heating/destabilization and the
aforementioned shortwave, activity should pick up over the next few
hrs and last into the evening.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls
begin across the desert CONUS.  Models bring a shortwave thru the
ern zones during the morning, and develop convection westward during
the day as large-scale ascent commences ahead of the trough and a
strong dryline develops against the wrn mtns.  Models, particularly
the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift
in the lwr levels invof the cap.  Mid-lvl LR`s increase during the
day, especially out west, and we`ll maintain a mention of svr during
the afternoon in the grids.  Monday night, as the trough moves into
the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the
Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading
E-NE.  Forecast PWATs remain high--near the climatological maximum
for May--and higher model QPFs have not changed much in 24 hrs,
remaining north of I-20 and mainly SE NM.  Attm, we see no reason to
change the going FFA.  Mid shift can expand if things change.  0-6km
bulk shear of 35-60kts is still forecast over the srn zones during
the evening, expanding north overnight.  Concurrent w/this, models
develop 0-3km SR helicities in excess of 150 ms/s2, and bring this
up thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains as well.  0-1km
SREH remains impressive as well, so we`ll keep a mention of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO.  Trough will continue exiting into the Central
Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the
NE.

Otherwise, temps will be back to near-normal by Wednesday, and
remain fairly persistent each day into the weekend under SW flow
aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a chance of
convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

10

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400
FXUS64 KMAF 032005
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the
CWA under SW flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis has shown a strong cap in
place this morning/afternoon, possible hindering development of a
stronger dryline.  However, this is starting to erode W-E, w/sat
imagery showing a weak shortwave moving into far West Texas.  Area
radars show convection trying to develop west of the Pecos...but
struggling.  However, w/continued heating/destabilization and the
aforementioned shortwave, activity should pick up over the next few
hrs and last into the evening.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls
begin across the desert CONUS.  Models bring a shortwave thru the
ern zones during the morning, and develop convection westward during
the day as large-scale ascent commences ahead of the trough and a
strong dryline develops against the wrn mtns.  Models, particularly
the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift
in the lwr levels invof the cap.  Mid-lvl LR`s increase during the
day, especially out west, and we`ll maintain a mention of svr during
the afternoon in the grids.  Monday night, as the trough moves into
the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the
Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading
E-NE.  Forecast PWATs remain high--near the climatological maximum
for May--and higher model QPFs have not changed much in 24 hrs,
remaining north of I-20 and mainly SE NM.  Attm, we see no reason to
change the going FFA.  Mid shift can expand if things change.  0-6km
bulk shear of 35-60kts is still forecast over the srn zones during
the evening, expanding north overnight.  Concurrent w/this, models
develop 0-3km SR helicities in excess of 150 ms/s2, and bring this
up thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains as well.  0-1km
SREH remains impressive as well, so we`ll keep a mention of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO.  Trough will continue exiting into the Central
Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the
NE.

Otherwise, temps will be back to near-normal by Wednesday, and
remain fairly persistent each day into the weekend under SW flow
aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a chance of
convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  81  61  78  /  10  40  50  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  80  65  77  /  10  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                59  84  58  82  /  40  40  50  10
DRYDEN TX                  66  85  68  83  /  10  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  84  64  85  /  10  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  80  54  73  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   58  75  59  78  /  50  50  80  10
MARFA TX                   53  81  50  76  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    65  79  63  78  /  10  40  30  20
ODESSA TX                  65  79  63  78  /  10  50  30  20
WINK TX                    65  82  63  85  /  30  30  50  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

84/44

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673
FXUS64 KMAF 031733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expectation continues to be the development of SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon and evening, first across higher terrain to the west,
and then spreading eastward. However, given the storms are
expected to be isolated, uncertainties regarding timing/location
preclude mention in the current TAFs. Models are also hinting at
the possibility of fog/low ceiling development early Monday
morning, though this would be contingent on rainfall this
evening. Thus, will defer to later issuances to include mention of
precipitation and/or fog in area TAFS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours, with breezy southeast winds
continuing through the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

84

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043
FXUS64 KMAF 031130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is possible -TSRA
affecting terminals today. Could see some convection develop near
the higher terrain regions later this afternoon then move east into
the adjacent plains. Thinking this activity will be isolated in
nature and confidence in specific location/timing remains too low
attm to mention in current TAF. Will continue to monitor through the
day and make adjustments if/when needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist with gusty SE winds expected through sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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185
FXUS64 KMAF 030943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  61  77  61  /  20  10  30  70
BIG SPRING TX              87  63  80  61  /  10  10  20  60
CARLSBAD NM                89  58  83  57  /  30  20  50  70
DRYDEN TX                  87  66  85  66  /  10  10  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  63  82  62  /  20  20  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  54  79  56  /  20  20  40  60
HOBBS NM                   85  59  76  58  /  30  20  40  80
MARFA TX                   83  48  80  50  /  30  20  20  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  63  78  62  /  10  10  30  60
ODESSA TX                  86  62  78  62  /  20  10  30  70
WINK TX                    91  62  82  62  /  30  20  40  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27/72

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989
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Moderate SE winds overnight then
gusty Sunday afternoon. Expecting some isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon but confidence in specific location/timing is low attm to
mention in current TAF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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906
FXUS64 KMAF 030004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with a moderate southerly to southeasterly wind
will continue. Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday
afternoon across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Will keep out of TAFs
for now due to expected isolated nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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378
FXUS64 KMAF 022015
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  85  62  78  /  10  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              55  86  65  80  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  88  56  83  /  10  10  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  59  85  67  82  /   0  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  90  64  82  /   0  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  84  56  79  /   0  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   53  86  59  76  /  10  20  50  30
MARFA TX                   48  83  48  80  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  86  65  78  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  60  86  64  78  /  10  10  30  20
WINK TX                    58  91  64  82  /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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726
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds will continue for the
next 24 hours. Late tonight, gusts will diminish, but winds will
increase once again by late Sunday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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689
FXUS64 KMAF 021127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with increasing mid to high clouds.
South wind will become gusty by midday as pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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816
FXUS64 KMAF 020837
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  58  86  61  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  58  86  64  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                89  56  89  58  /   0  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  85  60  84  66  /   0   0  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  87  63  /   0   0  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  60  82  59  /   0  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   85  54  86  58  /   0   0  20  30
MARFA TX                   83  50  81  52  /  10   0  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  63  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  85  58  85  62  /   0   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  58  90  63  /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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047
FXUS64 KMAF 020532
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with some increase in high clouds.
South wind should slowly drop off in speed overnight but then will
become gusty during the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the
flow.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the
HWO.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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790
FXUS64 KMAF 012319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
619 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Continued VFR conditions expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the
flow.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the
HWO.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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920
FXUS64 KMAF 011955
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the
flow.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the
HWO.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  84  58  86  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              55  85  55  87  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  90  54  90  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  56  86  59  87  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  88  62  91  /   0  10   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  85  58  83  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   50  84  53  87  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   41  82  46  83  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  84  56  88  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  58  84  59  87  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    56  89  56  93  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/44

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963
FXUS64 KMAF 011727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous forecast. VFR with SE winds near 15kts
at times. More of the same Sat with lee trof in the ern NM
Plains.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days
under the influence of upper ridging aloft. Surface lee troughing
will persist through the weekend, resulting in moderate SSE flow
and a slow increase in low level moisture through the beginning of
next week. Conditions will remain dry for most areas through
Saturday then thunderstorm chances return to the FA by the end of
the weekend.

Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday while a
Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and W TX under
SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to sharpen
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time. Although
higher dewpoints (pushing 60) would be ideal, think at least mention
of a slight chance is warranted attm.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will affect
the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low approaches, spreading
upper forcing for ascent across the region. Meanwhile, will
continue to see moisture increase east of the dryline, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and PWATS well above 1 inch by
Tuesday. Dryline thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon and
evening then convection looks to persist overnight as greatest
upper forcing arrives Tuesday morning. Dryline thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon before upper forcing moves east of the
region. Each afternoon, models indicate CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
(potentially higher Tuesday), mid-level LRs 7-8 C/km and 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt at times, supporting the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong winds. In
addition, given the amount of available moisture, heavy rain
potential could lead to areas of localized flash flooding.
Wednesday and Thursday, long term solutions indicate dryline
thunderstorms across far eastern zones each day and with SW flow
aloft persisting, think scenario is plausible with any passing
shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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801
FXUS64 KMAF 011126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with a few mid clouds expected. Otherwise the wind
will be southerly and may be a little gusty in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days
under the influence of upper ridging aloft. Surface lee troughing
will persist through the weekend, resulting in moderate SSE flow
and a slow increase in low level moisture through the beginning of
next week. Conditions will remain dry for most areas through
Saturday then thunderstorm chances return to the FA by the end of
the weekend.

Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday while a
Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and W TX under
SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to sharpen
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time. Although
higher dewpoints (pushing 60) would be ideal, think at least mention
of a slight chance is warranted attm.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will affect
the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low approaches, spreading
upper forcing for ascent across the region. Meanwhile, will
continue to see moisture increase east of the dryline, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and PWATS well above 1 inch by
Tuesday. Dryline thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon and
evening then convection looks to persist overnight as greatest
upper forcing arrives Tuesday morning. Dryline thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon before upper forcing moves east of the
region. Each afternoon, models indicate CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
(potentially higher Tuesday), mid-level LRs 7-8 C/km and 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt at times, supporting the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong winds. In
addition, given the amount of available moisture, heavy rain
potential could lead to areas of localized flash flooding.
Wednesday and Thursday, long term solutions indicate dryline
thunderstorms across far eastern zones each day and with SW flow
aloft persisting, think scenario is plausible with any passing
shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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782
FXUS64 KMAF 010831
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
331 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days
under the influence of upper ridging aloft. Surface lee troughing
will persist through the weekend, resulting in moderate SSE flow
and a slow increase in low level moisture through the beginning of
next week. Conditions will remain dry for most areas through
Saturday then thunderstorm chances return to the FA by the end of
the weekend.

Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday while a
Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and W TX under
SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to sharpen
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time. Although
higher dewpoints (pushing 60) would be ideal, think at least mention
of a slight chance is warranted attm.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will affect
the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low approaches, spreading
upper forcing for ascent across the region. Meanwhile, will
continue to see moisture increase east of the dryline, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and PWATS well above 1 inch by
Tuesday. Dryline thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon and
evening then convection looks to persist overnight as greatest
upper forcing arrives Tuesday morning. Dryline thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon before upper forcing moves east of the
region. Each afternoon, models indicate CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
(potentially higher Tuesday), mid-level LRs 7-8 C/km and 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt at times, supporting the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong winds. In
addition, given the amount of available moisture, heavy rain
potential could lead to areas of localized flash flooding.
Wednesday and Thursday, long term solutions indicate dryline
thunderstorms across far eastern zones each day and with SW flow
aloft persisting, think scenario is plausible with any passing
shortwave.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  55  85  57  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              84  56  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  52  89  56  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  56  85  59  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  57  87  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  56  84  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  51  85  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   80  44  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  56  85  59  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  84  57  85  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  55  90  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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742
FXUS64 KMAF 010542
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with a few mid clouds expected. Otherwise look for
a S/SE wind which may become gusty in the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Slowly moderating temperatures will continue tonight through
Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds over the forecast
area. Temperatures are expected to climb to near and or slightly
above normal values Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm with lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
expected with plenty of sunshine to boot.

The flow aloft Sunday is forecast to become west to southwest
ahead of a potent Pacific storm system. A dry line is forecast to
sharpen in this flow and track toward the Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance has been
consistent for several days generating some isolated convection
Sunday afternoon and evening in these areas. This looks reasonable
given the shortwave trough depicted and the associated mid level
moisture. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday with low level
thermal ridging in place with the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by next
Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned Pacific upper level storm
system approaches from the desert southwest on Monday and then
passes by to the north across the western high plains by late
Tuesday. Its looking more and more like it will be the first bout
of significant severe weather for the forecast area this year.

Behind this system southwesterly flow aloft is expected next Wednesday
and Thursday. Guidance suggests thunderstorms will be possible
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region both
afternoon and evenings along and ahead of the dryline. Above normal
temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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500
FXUS64 KMAF 302245
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Slowly moderating temperatures will continue tonight through
Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds over the forecast
area. Temperatures are expected to climb to near and or slightly
above normal values Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm with lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
expected with plenty of sunshine to boot.

The flow aloft Sunday is forecast to become west to southwest
ahead of a potent Pacific storm system. A dry line is forecast to
sharpen in this flow and track toward the Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance has been
consistent for several days generating some isolated convection
Sunday afternoon and evening in these areas. This looks reasonable
given the shortwave trough depicted and the associated mid level
moisture. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday with low level
thermal ridging in place with the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by next
Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned Pacific upper level storm
system approaches from the desert southwest on Monday and then
passes by to the north across the western high plains by late
Tuesday. Its looking more and more like it will be the first bout
of significant severe weather for the forecast area this year.

Behind this system southwesterly flow aloft is expected next Wednesday
and Thursday. Guidance suggests thunderstorms will be possible
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region both
afternoon and evenings along and ahead of the dryline. Above normal
temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  85  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                47  87  51  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  84  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  86  58  89  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  82  56  84  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   49  84  50  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  80  42  82  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  84  55  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  84  57  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  86  57  91  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

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792
FXUS64 KMAF 301915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Slowly moderating temperatures will continue tonight through
Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds over the forecast
area. Temperatures are expected to climb to near and or slightly
above normal values Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm with lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
expected with plenty of sunshine to boot.

The flow aloft Sunday is forecast to become west to southwest
ahead of a potent Pacific storm system. A dry line is forecast to
sharpen in this flow and track toward the Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance has been
consistent for several days generating some isolated convection
Sunday afternoon and evening in these areas. This looks reasonable
given the shortwave trough depicted and the associated mid level
moisture. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday with low level
thermal ridging in place with the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by next
Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned Pacific upper level storm
system approaches from the desert southwest on Monday and then
passes by to the north across the western high plains by late
Tuesday. Its looking more and more like it will be the first bout
of significant severe weather for the forecast area this year.

Behind this system southwesterly flow aloft is expected next Wednesday
and Thursday. Guidance suggests thunderstorms will be possible
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region both
afternoon and evenings along and ahead of the dryline. Above normal
temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  85  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                47  87  51  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  84  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  86  58  89  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  82  56  84  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   49  84  50  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  80  42  82  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  84  55  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  84  57  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  86  57  91  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

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406
FXUS64 KMAF 301554
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light return flow. A
few mid/high clouds will be possible, especially SE NM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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161
FXUS64 KMAF 301108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light south winds to continue this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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355
FXUS64 KMAF 300817
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  51  85  55  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              83  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                86  50  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  83  53  85  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  56  83  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  49  85  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  41  80  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  82  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    85  51  89  56  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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293
FXUS64 KMAF 300508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light south winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds and clear skies will lead to another night of much
below normal temperatures. It will not be nearly as cool as last
night due to a light southerly return flow and modifying air mass.
Even so, a light freeze looks possible again across some portions
of the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement for late tonight and early Thursday morning for
the aforementioned areas urging residents to take precautions for
sensitive vegetation.

Dry with moderating temperatures are expected Thursday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values Thursday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and a
low level thermal ridging expected.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday. A dry line
is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance
continues to generate some isolated convection Sunday afternoon
and evening in these areas and could be reasonable given the amount
of mid level moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will
remain above normal with low level thermal ridging in place with
the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by
next Monday through Wednesday as an  upper level low pressure
system approaches from the desert southwest. Could be the
first bout of significant severe weather for the forecast area
this year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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256
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will become southerly with mostly clear skies over
the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds and clear skies will lead to another night of much
below normal temperatures. It will not be nearly as cool as last
night due to a light southerly return flow and modifying air mass.
Even so, a light freeze looks possible again across some portions
of the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement for late tonight and early Thursday morning for
the aforementioned areas urging residents to take precautions for
sensitive vegetation.

Dry with moderating temperatures are expected Thursday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values Thursday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and a
low level thermal ridging expected.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday. A dry line
is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance
continues to generate some isolated convection Sunday afternoon
and evening in these areas and could be reasonable given the amount
of mid level moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will
remain above normal with low level thermal ridging in place with
the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by
next Monday through Wednesday as an  upper level low pressure
system approaches from the desert southwest. Could be the
first bout of significant severe weather for the forecast area
this year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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985
FXUS64 KMAF 291913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds and clear skies will lead to another night of much
below normal temperatures. It will not be nearly as cool as last
night due to a light southerly return flow and modifying air mass.
Even so, a light freeze looks possible again across some portions
of the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement for late tonight and early Thursday morning for
the aforementioned areas urging residents to take precautions for
sensitive vegetation.

Dry with moderating temperatures are expected Thursday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values Thursday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and a
low level thermal ridging expected.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday. A dry line
is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance
continues to generate some isolated convection Sunday afternoon
and evening in these areas and could be reasonable given the amount
of mid level moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will
remain above normal with low level thermal ridging in place with
the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by
next Monday through Wednesday as an  upper level low pressure
system approaches from the desert southwest. Could be the
first bout of significant severe weather for the forecast area
this year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  80  51  83  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  80  51  84  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                42  85  47  87  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  83  54  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  84  54  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  77  55  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   44  79  48  86  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  76  37  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  81  53  83  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    43  85  52  87  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/12

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856
FXUS64 KMAF 291713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with winds less than 10kts thru the night
underneath northerly mid level flow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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275
FXUS64 KMAF 291502 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1002 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Have issued products to reflect expiration of NPW freeze warning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  48  84  52  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  49  85  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74  47  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  76  51  85  55  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  50  84  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  51  80  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   71  46  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  76  43  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  50  84  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74  50  83  54  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    75  48  87  52  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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996
FXUS64 KMAF 291100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

10

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783
FXUS64 KMAF 290802
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  48  84  52  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  49  85  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74  47  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  76  51  85  55  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  50  84  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  51  80  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   71  46  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  76  43  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  50  84  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74  50  83  54  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    75  48  87  52  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

10/27

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223
FXUS64 KMAF 290521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast
Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
At the surface unseasonably cool surface high pressure is
centered over the extreme eastern high plains of Colorado and New
Mexico. This surface high is forecast to slide southeast tonight
and be centered over and near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau by sunrise. Will go ahead and issue a late season Freeze
Warning for the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. It will be a close call. Some locations
will probably not freeze but the potential exists for a few locations
to fall into the 30 to 32 degree range given that some snow flurries
were reported in the Davis Mountains this morning and skies will
clear with the center of the surface high passing over that region.

It will be dry with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday
through Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds and remains over
the forecast area. Temperatures will still be below normal Wednesday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday and Monday.
A dryline is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon
both days. Guidance is breaking out some convection in these areas
both days and could be reasonable given the amount of mid level
moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will be above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

Thunderstorm chances will increase area wide by Tuesday due to a
upper level low pressure system approaching from the desert
southwest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa
     Plateau.


&&

$$

10

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427
FXUS64 KMAF 282258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated north to northeast winds will begin to diminish over the
next few hours.  Winds will become light and variable into the
overnight hours and will continue into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast
Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
At the surface unseasonably cool surface high pressure is
centered over the extreme eastern high plains of Colorado and New
Mexico. This surface high is forecast to slide southeast tonight
and be centered over and near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau by sunrise. Will go ahead and issue a late season Freeze
Warning for the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. It will be a close call. Some locations
will probably not freeze but the potential exists for a few locations
to fall into the 30 to 32 degree range given that some snow flurries
were reported in the Davis Mountains this morning and skies will
clear with the center of the surface high passing over that region.

It will be dry with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday
through Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds and remains over
the forecast area. Temperatures will still be below normal Wednesday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday and Monday.
A dryline is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon
both days. Guidance is breaking out some convection in these areas
both days and could be reasonable given the amount of mid level
moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will be above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

Thunderstorm chances will increase area wide by Tuesday due to a
upper level low pressure system approaching from the desert
southwest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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646
FXUS64 KMAF 281947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast
Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
At the surface unseasonably cool surface high pressure is
centered over the extreme eastern high plains of Colorado and New
Mexico. This surface high is forecast to slide southeast tonight
and be centered over and near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau by sunrise. Will go ahead and issue a late season Freeze
Warning for the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. It will be a close call. Some locations
will probably not freeze but the potential exists for a few locations
to fall into the 30 to 32 degree range given that some snow flurries
were reported in the Davis Mountains this morning and skies will
clear with the center of the surface high passing over that region.

It will be dry with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds and remains over the forecast
area. Temperatures will still be below normal Wednesday but should
become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday and Monday.
A dryline is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon
both days. Guidance is breaking out some convection in these areas
both days and could be reasonable given the amount of mid level
moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will be above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

Thunderstorm chances will increase area wide by Tuesday due to a
upper level low pressure system approaching from the desert
southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  74  48  84  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              42  74  47  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  76  44  87  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  77  49  84  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  73  50  85  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          41  66  49  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  73  47  83  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   31  68  32  76  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  74  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  74  50  83  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    43  76  47  86  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

72/12

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387
FXUS64 KMAF 281723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low slowly wobbling east and will have decreasing cloud
cover over SE NM and W TX through the evening. A few MVFR cigs will
hang on for a couple more hours but will be turning VFR. Gusty N
wind will decrease and slowly veer around to the E overnight before
becoming light and variable.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  42  74  48  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  44  74  49  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  42  76  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  44  73  49  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  42  66  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   64  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  35  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  43  74  49  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  65  43  74  50  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    68  43  75  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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471
FXUS64 KMAF 281129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
persisting for the next several hours. Still have gusty north winds
continuing areawide with MVFR affecting all but CNM and PEQ early
this morning. Should see low cigs move east throughout the morning.
Otherwise, winds will remain elevated through at least early
afternoon then diminish to below 10kt by this evening with
skies clearing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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768
FXUS64 KMAF 280847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  42  74  48  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  44  74  49  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  42  76  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  44  73  49  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  42  66  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   64  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  35  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  43  74  49  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  65  43  74  50  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    68  43  75  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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079
FXUS64 KMAF 280529
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting some terminals through Tuesday morning. Currently have
gusty north winds areawide with low cigs moving in from the north.
MVFR cigs already affecting HOB with all but maybe PEQ following
suit over the next several hours. Expect low cigs to south of NM
terminals early Tuesday morning then all other sites by mid morning.
Otherwise, winds will remain elevated overnight and much of Tuesday
then diminish mid-late afternoon with skies clearing.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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511
FXUS64 KMAF 272250
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper low centered over the South Plains,
poised to send wraparound moisture into West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico overnight. Forecast soundings call for MVFR wraparound
stratus at worst, at KMAF/KCNM/KHOB, w/cigs scattering out all
terminals Tue afternoon. A little -SHRA or DZ may accompany
stratus overnight, but we`ll leave it out for now. Otherwise, NW-N
sfc flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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698
FXUS64 KMAF 271843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  61  43  74  /  30  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  61  44  76  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  66  42  75  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  70  48  79  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           44  64  45  76  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  59  44  70  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  61  41  73  /  30  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  60  33  68  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  62  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    44  66  45  76  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

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966
FXUS64 KMAF 271734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system centered in the eastern Texas Panhandle
will slowly move northeast toward the Red River the next 24 hours.
Wrap around VFR cumulus/stratcumulus clouds should increase from
north to south this afternoon and this evening as a cold front
surges south this evening. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty this afternoon are expected to shift to the north tonight.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at KMAF and KHOB by 06z
tonight with a 30 percent chance of showers tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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