Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 312343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
643 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016


Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.



Another tricky aviation forecast, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms ongoing this evening, and remaining possible
through the end of the forecast period. Have included mention of
-SHRA/RA where confidence is highest this evening/tonight, and
will continue to monitor and amend as necessary. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected to develop after 06Z, and persist through
at least late morning Thursday. While a few places may scatter
out to VFR after 18Z, confidence in this scenario is low.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

Yet another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected
overnight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico as an upper
level shear axis continues to weaken and move towards southeast
New Mexico. The 12z Wednesday sounding from Midland indicated
copious amounts of moisture remain in the region with a near
record precipitable water value of 1.61 inches. The potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be across southeast New Mexico tonight,
closest to the shear axis. Will issue a Flash Flood Watch tonight
through mid Thursday morning for southeast New Mexico as soils are
already saturated from previous rainfall with more moderate to
potentially locally heavy rainfall expected overnight.

The shear axis will continue to weaken and move southeast into
the Permian Basin of west Texas on Thursday and Thursday night.
More showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide and more
locally heavy rainfall could be possible with precitable water
values remaining near record levels.

Precipitation intensity and areal coverage should be on the
decrease on Friday with the shear axis dissipated. However the
atmosphere will remain very moist and upslope flow and diurnal
heating should break the cap and produce random scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the region. The activity should diminish
significantly after sunset with loss of heating and lack of large
scale forcing.

A regime change is expected to take place this weekend into early
next week as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops ahead of
a slow moving western U.S. upper trough. A surface lee trough will
form along the west Texas/southeast New Mexico border and become a
persistent feature. This should help to boost temperatures to
more normal values. The best chance of thunderstorms will remain
across western sections closer to the surface trough from the
southeast New Mexico plains south to the Guadalupe and Davis


Big Spring                     70  82  68  84 /  50  60  40  40
Carlsbad                       65  80  66  86 /  60  60  50  30
Dryden                         72  91  73  92 /  30  40  10  30
Fort Stockton                  67  81  66  85 /  50  60  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  74  60  80 /  70  60  40  30
Hobbs                          64  77  63  79 /  60  60  50  40
Marfa                          62  78  60  80 /  50  60  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  83  67  85 /  50  50  40  30
Odessa                         68  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  30
Wink                           68  85  68  88 /  60  60  40  30


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.


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