Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 191108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

12Z TAF issuance
Cold front is making its way through the area currently. Northerly
winds will be gusty this morning before weakening this afternoon.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015/

A cold front moving south thru W TX/E NM plains is being followed by
a waning 5mb/3hr isallobaric high. There will be some wind to follow
the front though at 15-20 mph and it will be noticeably cooler
today, a good 10 degrees in most areas N of I-10. A quick warm up on
Fri PM with downslope sw winds and surface pressure falls. Nice wx
Fri won`t last long as the next and probably the strongest cold
front thus far will be racing s thru the plains Fri night/Sat AM as
a 130kt 3h jet moves thru the base of the trof to the n and as a
1040mb high comes over the front range of the Rocky Mtns. Initial
concern with the front will be the post frontal winds. A 4mb/60nm
gradient is impressive as is the 8-9mb/3hr isallobaric anticyclone
depicted on the NAM12. Across the plains this could result in
advisory level winds for at least a few hrs. High winds looks likely
thru GDP Pass too, based on said features and 35kts at 85h. Guidance
has picked up on this, although MAV is probably too strong thru the
pass. We will opt issue a NPW high wind watch for GDP Pass for Sat.
Also we are concerned that there will be areas BLDU INVOF and n of I-
20. After highs in the 40s/50s Sat PM there will be a good set-up
Sun AM for a widespread freeze, possibly a hard freeze courtesy
dwpnts in the 20s, light winds, mostly clear skies and surface ridge
axis near by. Highlights will likely be needed. SW mid level flow
Sun/Mon will bring in thickening high clouds and slight chance PoPs
across the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos by Mon. Semi-zonal mid level
flow Tue will back to the SW Wed resulting in warming trend and
gusty winds on Wed/Thur. An unseasonably warm Thanksgiving is in the


TX...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.



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