Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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968
FXUS64 KMAF 211733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1133 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface lee trough development east of the Rockies will result in
southwest to west surface winds at TAF locations. Low clouds and fog
have dissipated making way for VFR conditions. Redevelopment of
fog is not expected later tonight. Increasing high level clouds are expected
across the area Monday morning. However, no aviation impacts are
expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog are expected to continue through
mid-morning.  MAF will likely be the last site to improve in
visibility and ceiling.  Winds will be out of the southwest to west
and will be elevated with some gusts this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Sunday...Satl imagery/Sfc obs are
indc low clouds and fog mainly north and east of the Pecos River
and in eastern Pecos/Brewster Counties as well as Terrell County.
There are a few places with dense fog...Hobbs and Wink...but for
the most part fog is patchy. With high clouds beginning to stream
overhead do not think there will be enough dense fog for an
Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor in case there is a
"sunrise surprise".

A mixed bag of weather is in store for the CWA this week. A
mid/upper trof is north of the CWA and continues to progress east.
Zonal flow will bring warmer temps (5-10 degrees above normal)
today and Monday.

A strong shortwave will dive south down the lee side of the Rockies
Monday night as the mid/upper flow across the country amplifies.
This will drive a cold front south through the CWA. Models are
indc good lift Monday night and have been progressively wetter.
Therefore have bumped up the pops for Monday night a little...but
the duration of the precip should be short. Some locations in the
Trans Pecos and south might not see any precip. With the brunt of
the cold air remaining to the north have kept the precip as
rain...but there could be a little snow mixing in late Monday
night across the northern Permian Basin. As of this time little or
no snow accumulation is expected. Looks like it will be windy late
Monday night thru Guadalupe Pass as the winds turn northeast...but
at this time it looks like the winds will remain below warning
criteria. Other than a few morning showers in the Davis Mountains
dry weather will return Tuesday with cooler temps.

Dry weather is expected the remainder of the week and into next
weekend. Northwest flow aloft will bring a little warming on
Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer (5-10 degrees above
normal) with zonal flow aloft and downslope southwest winds in the
lower levels. A shortwave will pass north of the CWA on Friday...
driving a dry cold front south through the CWA. This will bring
below normal temps Friday and Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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