Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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133
FXUS64 KMAF 281128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mid level cumulus
will develop this afternoon with -SHRA/TS possible at most TAF
sites though only confident to make mention at CNM and HOB at this
time. Convection will be more isolated south and east of New
Mexico. TS will dissipate by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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