Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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699
FXUS64 KMAF 312332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities may improve for a couple of hours before
lower ceilings are expected to redevelop across the area late this
evening.  Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area through
Sunday morning before lifting around 18z.  There is a slight
possibility of fog developing overnight as well.  Areas of rain will
be possible through the overnight hours.  A cold front with elevated
north to northeast winds will move through the area around 15z with
winds weakening in the late afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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404
FXUS64 KMAF 312024
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  51  26  55  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              43  51  25  55  /  20  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  54  28  60  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  65  36  56  /  40  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  55  30  58  /  40  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          38  49  28  55  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   39  50  27  55  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  57  27  57  /  50  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  52  24  55  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  52  25  55  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    42  56  28  59  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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242
FXUS64 KMAF 311742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through this afternoon. Currently have flight
categories ranging from LIFR at HOB to MVFR at FST, with all other
sites sitting in between at IFR. Expect conditions to improve to VFR
sometime mid afternoon/early evening however low vis could return
after midnight Sunday morning. Went ahead and included mention of BR
at HOB and MAF where confidence is higher and make adjustments
if/when needed. Otherwise, the bulk of RA has moved east of all
terminals but could see some isolated/scattered showers through the
afternoon. A cold front will enter northern portions of the region
mid/late morning Sunday, with gusty north winds expected just beyond
this TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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182
FXUS64 KMAF 311114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Radar shows widespread light to moderate rain continues and will
keep CIGs at IFR/LIFR levels through 15Z before conditions improve
to VFR around 00Z. Temperatures will remain above freezing so no
wintry precipitation is expected.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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792
FXUS64 KMAF 311022
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  39  52  28  / 100  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  43  53  30  / 100  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  39  52  32  /  80  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  45  62  38  /  70  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  42  56  37  /  70  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  36  49  34  /  70  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  36  52  30  /  90  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   60  35  56  26  /  70  40  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  40  53  29  / 100  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  55  40  53  27  / 100  20  10   0
WINK TX                    58  39  58  32  /  90  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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329
FXUS64 KMAF 310435
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1035 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain will continue across the area through the night into
the day Saturday.  There is even a slight chance of a thunderstorm
for FST during the day Saturday.  Ceilings and visibilities will
continue to decrease through the late evening and overnight hours
and will decrease even further in areas of moderate rain.  Ceilings
may briefly get down to LIFR between 12z and 15z.  Ceilings and
visibilities are expected to improve around or slightly after 18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

UPDATE...

Extension of Winter Weather Advisory.

DISCUSSION...
Had planned on letting the advisory fall off but last observation
had freezing rain in it so extended the advisory out through 11 pm MST.
A mix of freezing rain... sleet... and snow is possible tonight along
with freezing fog. Main concern will be traffic on U.S. 62/180 going
through the Guadalupes where the road could have light icing.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low is located INVOF srn Calif with a rich mid/upper level
tap of Pacific moisture streaming nwd across the swrn CONUS. The
precip shield this morning was mainly out in the wrn CWFA closer to
the track of shrtwv trofs. Moisture has been/will be so rich (+3 to
+4 standard deviations per GEFS/NAFES) that it has/will keep temps
close to 32 in much of the GDPs, although temps are rising in the
GDP Mtns. Based on temps earlier and measured precip there could be
a couple of inches of snow up high, but Queen reports only rain and
GDP HQ reports light ice with FZFG. We will opt to let winter wx
advisory expire at 00Z. Overnight we expect that the precip shield
will expand as said shrtwv trof progresses ewd and as broad area
of lift resides over much of the region. Precip will mostly be in
the form of SHRA with isold embedded TSRA Sat PM. There is a slight
possibility of RA/SN/IP mix in nrn parts of Lea Co Sat AM. The chance
of precip is high, in fact widespread rain between .25-50" with
local amounts near or over an inch by Sunday morning when the chance
for precip starts to decrease. Local flooding will be possible. With
such high moisture content there will be narrow diurnal temp ranges.
A cold front will move thru the CWFA Sun AM as a nrn stream shrtwv
trof in cntrl plains drives it s, so even though precip ends Sun
it will still be cool. It could be even colder than MOS indicates.
Certainly cold by Mon AM with lows probably colder than MOS. A more
noticeable warm-up is not felt until Tue when lee trof/thermal ridge
return helping to push temps back into the 60s. Another front will
try to push thru W TX Plains Wed, but probably not until after
peak heating, thus colder Thur. Setting up to be warmer Fri (U50s)
with enuf of a NW mid level component for pressure falls and thermal
ridging.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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585
FXUS64 KMAF 310032
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Extension of Winter Weather Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Had planned on letting the advisory fall off but last observation
had freezing rain in it so extended the advisory out through 11 pm MST.
A mix of freezing rain... sleet... and snow is possible tonight along
with freezing fog. Main concern will be traffic on U.S. 62/180 going
through the Guadalupes where the road could have light icing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of light to moderate rain will continue across the area
through the night into the day Saturday.  There is even a slight
chance of a thunderstorm for FST during the day tomorrow.  Ceilings
and visibilities will gradually decrease through the evening into
the overnight hours.  Visibilities will decrease even further in
areas of moderate rain and ceilings may briefly get down to LIFR
between 12z to 15z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to
improve around 18z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low is located INVOF srn Calif with a rich mid/upper level
tap of Pacific moisture streaming nwd across the swrn CONUS. The
precip shield this morning was mainly out in the wrn CWFA closer to
the track of shrtwv trofs. Moisture has been/will be so rich (+3 to
+4 standard deviations per GEFS/NAFES) that it has/will keep temps
close to 32 in much of the GDPs, although temps are rising in the
GDP Mtns. Based on temps earlier and measured precip there could be
a couple of inches of snow up high, but Queen reports only rain and
GDP HQ reports light ice with FZFG. We will opt to let winter wx
advisory expire at 00Z. Overnight we expect that the precip shield
will expand as said shrtwv trof progresses ewd and as broad area
of lift resides over much of the region. Precip will mostly be in
the form of SHRA with isold embedded TSRA Sat PM. There is a slight
possibility of RA/SN/IP mix in nrn parts of Lea Co Sat AM. The chance
of precip is high, in fact widespread rain between .25-50" with
local amounts near or over an inch by Sunday morning when the chance
for precip starts to decrease. Local flooding will be possible. With
such high moisture content there will be narrow diurnal temp ranges.
A cold front will move thru the CWFA Sun AM as a nrn stream shrtwv
trof in cntrl plains drives it s, so even though precip ends Sun
it will still be cool. It could be even colder than MOS indicates.
Certainly cold by Mon AM with lows probably colder than MOS. A more
noticeable warm-up is not felt until Tue when lee trof/thermal ridge
return helping to push temps back into the 60s. Another front will
try to push thru W TX Plains Wed, but probably not until after
peak heating, thus colder Thur. Setting up to be warmer Fri (U50s)
with enuf of a NW mid level component for pressure falls and thermal
ridging.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  49  40  52  /  90  80  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              40  47  44  53  /  90 100  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                37  51  37  52  /  90  60  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  47  57  45  62  /  80  70  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  57  43  56  /  90  70  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  47  37  49  /  90  60  20  20
HOBBS NM                   35  49  36  52  /  90  70  20  10
MARFA TX                   38  59  33  56  /  90  60  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  51  40  53  /  90  90  20  20
ODESSA TX                  40  51  40  53  /  90  80  20  20
WINK TX                    43  56  40  58  /  90  70  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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624
FXUS64 KMAF 302327
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of light to moderate rain will continue across the area
through the night into the day Saturday.  There is even a slight
chance of a thunderstorm for FST during the day tomorrow.  Ceilings
and visibilities will gradually decrease through the evening into
the overnight hours.  Visibilities will decrease even further in
areas of moderate rain and ceilings may briefly get down to LIFR
between 12z to 15z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to
improve around 18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low is located INVOF srn Calif with a rich mid/upper level
tap of Pacific moisture streaming nwd across the swrn CONUS. The
precip shield this morning was mainly out in the wrn CWFA closer to
the track of shrtwv trofs. Moisture has been/will be so rich (+3 to
+4 standard deviations per GEFS/NAFES) that it has/will keep temps
close to 32 in much of the GDPs, although temps are rising in the
GDP Mtns. Based on temps earlier and measured precip there could be
a couple of inches of snow up high, but Queen reports only rain and
GDP HQ reports light ice with FZFG. We will opt to let winter wx
advisory expire at 00Z. Overnight we expect that the precip shield
will expand as said shrtwv trof progresses ewd and as broad area
of lift resides over much of the region. Precip will mostly be in
the form of SHRA with isold embedded TSRA Sat PM. There is a slight
possibility of RA/SN/IP mix in nrn parts of Lea Co Sat AM. The chance
of precip is high, in fact widespread rain between .25-50" with
local amounts near or over an inch by Sunday morning when the chance
for precip starts to decrease. Local flooding will be possible. With
such high moisture content there will be narrow diurnal temp ranges.
A cold front will move thru the CWFA Sun AM as a nrn stream shrtwv
trof in cntrl plains drives it s, so even though precip ends Sun
it will still be cool. It could be even colder than MOS indicates.
Certainly cold by Mon AM with lows probably colder than MOS. A more
noticeable warm-up is not felt until Tue when lee trof/thermal ridge
return helping to push temps back into the 60s. Another front will
try to push thru W TX Plains Wed, but probably not until after
peak heating, thus colder Thur. Setting up to be warmer Fri (U50s)
with enuf of a NW mid level component for pressure falls and thermal
ridging.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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771
FXUS64 KMAF 301950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low is located INVOF srn Calif with a rich mid/upper level
tap of Pacific moisture streaming nwd across the swrn CONUS. The
precip shield this morning was mainly out in the wrn CWFA closer to
the track of shrtwv trofs. Moisture has been/will be so rich (+3 to
+4 standard deviations per GEFS/NAFES) that it has/will keep temps
close to 32 in much of the GDPs, although temps are rising in the
GDP Mtns. Based on temps earlier and measured precip there could be
a couple of inches of snow up high, but Queen reports only rain and
GDP HQ reports light ice with FZFG. We will opt to let winter wx
advisory expire at 00Z. Overnight we expect that the precip shield
will expand as said shrtwv trof progresses ewd and as broad area
of lift resides over much of the region. Precip will mostly be in
the form of SHRA with isold embedded TSRA Sat PM. There is a slight
possibility of RA/SN/IP mix in nrn parts of Lea Co Sat AM. The chance
of precip is high, in fact widespread rain between .25-50" with
local amounts near or over an inch by Sunday morning when the chance
for precip starts to decrease. Local flooding will be possible. With
such high moisture content there will be narrow diurnal temp ranges.
A cold front will move thru the CWFA Sun AM as a nrn stream shrtwv
trof in cntrl plains drives it s, so even though precip ends Sun
it will still be cool. It could be even colder than MOS indicates.
Certainly cold by Mon AM with lows probably colder than MOS. A more
noticeable warm-up is not felt until Tue when lee trof/thermal ridge
return helping to push temps back into the 60s. Another front will
try to push thru W TX Plains Wed, but probably not until after
peak heating, thus colder Thur. Setting up to be warmer Fri (U50s)
with enuf of a NW mid level component for pressure falls and thermal
ridging.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  38  49  40  /  40  90  80  20
BIG SPRING TX              46  40  47  44  /  20  90 100  30
CARLSBAD NM                43  37  51  37  /  80  90  60  20
DRYDEN TX                  53  47  57  45  /  20  80  70  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  42  57  43  /  40  90  70  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  32  47  37  /  80  90  60  20
HOBBS NM                   41  35  49  36  /  70  90  70  20
MARFA TX                   48  38  59  33  /  40  90  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  39  51  40  /  30  90  90  20
ODESSA TX                  46  40  51  40  /  30  90  80  20
WINK TX                    51  43  56  40  /  50  90  70  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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485
FXUS64 KMAF 301808
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning for Guadalupe
Pass. Winds are expected to continue to slowly decrease through
the remainder of the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

While a mix of low-end VFR/high-end MVFR conditions will continue
through this evening with passing light rain showers at area TAF
sites, expect conditions to deteriorate overnight as a strong
storm system brings widespread moderate rain to the area
tonight through Saturday. Ceilings and visibilities will drop
through the night, with IFR conditions possible by early Saturday
morning. With temperatures expected to remain above freezing,
frozen precipitation is not currently expected. Winds will
maintain an easterly component through the forecast period, and
should remain below 15kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  47  37  51  /  90  80  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              38  46  41  52  /  90  90  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                36  50  35  52  /  90  70  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  46  56  43  60  /  80  70  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  55  41  56  /  90  70  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  46  36  49  /  90  70  20  20
HOBBS NM                   34  49  35  50  /  90  80  20  10
MARFA TX                   37  57  34  56  /  90  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  48  37  51  /  90  90  20  20
ODESSA TX                  38  51  39  53  /  90  80  20  20
WINK TX                    42  54  38  57  /  90  70  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/49

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064
FXUS64 KMAF 301800
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

While a mix of low-end VFR/high-end MVFR conditions will continue
through this evening with passing light rain showers at area TAF
sites, expect conditions to deteriorate overnight as a strong
storm system brings widespread moderate rain to the area
tonight through Saturday. Ceilings and visibilities will drop
through the night, with IFR conditions possible by early Saturday
morning. With temperatures expected to remain above freezing,
frozen precipitation is not currently expected. Winds will
maintain an easterly component through the forecast period, and
should remain below 15kt.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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448
FXUS64 KMAF 301112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions areawide initially this morning, but think
MVFR ceilings will materialize at KCNM, KPEQ and KFST as the column
moistens with more precipitation spreading northeastward over the
region.  Snow and sleet could mix in with the precipitation at KCNM
and KHOB, but expect visibility to reduce only to MVFR levels.
Surface temperatures will not be freezing, so icing will be
limited.  Think all terminals will see ceilings and visibility go
down, but mostly after 31/06Z.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015/

The stage is still set for another round of unsettled weather
today through at least Saturday night. Cooler air is currently
oozing southwest through southeast New Mexico and west Texas. In
the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently near
Baja will very slowly move southeast and then east- northeast
across Mexico the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong
large scale forcing will produce a high probability of widespread
precipitation beginning today through Saturday night. Also, as
this upper low moves toward the region, the northern stream will
continue to supply cool low level air. Forecast soundings indicate
the potential for a few inches of snow and sleet today across the
Guadalupe Mountains with a mix bag of much lighter rain, snow,
sleet across the southeast New Mexico Plains. Will continue the
Winter Weather Advisory today for the Guadalupe Mountains but
increase snow and sleet amounts up to 4 inches per latest model
soundings and radar trends. Will continue a chance of rain across
west Texas today.

For tonight and Saturday have continued high pops all areas
as the southern stream system continues to produce strong large
scale forcing ahead of the upper low. Forecast soundings indicate
some warming in the low to mid levels so the precipitation should
be mainly in the form of rain tonight and Saturday. The exception
appears to be across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and
extreme northern Lea county New Mexico tonight where some of the
guidance is indicating that some cooler low level air could
persist and produce a mixture of rain and sleet. The day shift
will need to monitor the Guadalupe Mountains tonight concerning
this sleet potential.

By Saturday night and Sunday the upper level trough axis between
the northern and southern stream is expected to approach the area
with the upper low sinking southeast and weakening through Mexico.
The better forcing will diminish and shift to areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas and precipitation chances will be
on the decrease. In addition by these time periods, the lower
levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the
precipitation to fall in liquid form all areas.

By Sunday night through next Tuesday the upper level low pressure
system is forecast to continue to weaken and move east-northeast
across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south of the
forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be cool Monday but
should warm to above normal values by Tuesday as a surface lee
trough/low forms behind the upper low.

Generally near to above normal temperatures and no precipitation
is expected next Wednesday through Friday in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  37  47  37  /  40  90  80  20
BIG SPRING TX              44  38  46  41  /  20  90  90  20
CARLSBAD NM                39  36  50  35  /  80  90  70  20
DRYDEN TX                  51  46  56  43  /  20  80  70  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  41  55  41  /  40  90  70  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  33  46  36  /  80  90  70  20
HOBBS NM                   41  34  49  35  /  70  90  80  20
MARFA TX                   48  37  57  34  /  40  90  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  38  48  37  /  30  90  90  20
ODESSA TX                  45  38  51  39  /  30  90  80  20
WINK TX                    51  42  54  38  /  50  90  70  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67

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017
FXUS64 KMAF 301043
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The stage is still set for another round of unsettled weather
today through at least Saturday night. Cooler air is currently
oozing southwest through southeast New Mexico and west Texas. In
the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently near
Baja will very slowly move southeast and then east-northeast
across Mexico the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong
large scale forcing will produce a high probability of widespread
precipitation beginning today through Saturday night. Also, as
this upper low moves toward the region, the northern stream will
continue to supply cool low level air. Forecast soundings
indicate the potential for a few inches of snow and sleet today
across the Guadalupe Mountains with a mix bag of much lighter
rain, snow, sleet across the southeast New Mexico Plains. Will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory today for the Guadalupe
Mountains but increase snow and sleet amounts up to 4 inches per
latest model soundings and radar trends. Will continue a chance of
rain across west Texas today.

For tonight and Saturday have continued high pops all areas
as the southern stream system continues to produce strong large
scale forcing ahead of the upper low. Forecast soundings indicate
some warming in the low to mid levels so the precipitation should
be mainly in the form of rain tonight and Saturday. The exception
appears to be across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and
extreme northern Lea county New Mexico tonight where some of the
guidance is indicating that some cooler low level air could
persist and produce a mixture of rain and sleet. The day shift
will need to monitor the Guadalupe Mountains tonight concerning
this sleet potential.

By Saturday night and Sunday the upper level trough axis between
the northern and southern stream is expected to approach the area
with the upper low sinking southeast and weakening through Mexico.
The better forcing will diminish and shift to areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas and precipitation chances will be
on the decrease. In addition by these time periods, the lower
levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the
precipitation to fall in liquid form all areas.

By Sunday night through next Tuesday the upper level low pressure
system is forecast to continue to weaken and move east-northeast
across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south of the
forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be cool Monday but
should warm to above normal values by Tuesday as a surface lee
trough/low forms behind the upper low.

Generally near to above normal temperatures and no precipitation
is expected next Wednesday through Friday in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  37  47  37  /  40  90  80  20
BIG SPRING TX              44  38  46  41  /  20  90  90  20
CARLSBAD NM                39  36  50  35  /  80  90  70  20
DRYDEN TX                  51  46  56  43  /  20  80  70  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  41  55  41  /  40  90  70  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  33  46  36  /  80  90  70  20
HOBBS NM                   41  34  49  35  /  70  90  80  20
MARFA TX                   48  37  57  34  /  40  90  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  38  48  37  /  30  90  90  20
ODESSA TX                  45  38  51  39  /  30  90  80  20
WINK TX                    51  42  54  38  /  50  90  70  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67

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622
FXUS64 KMAF 300444
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1042 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will become easterly and remain fairly light.  Areas of rain
showers will continue through the day Friday.  Rain mixed with snow
and sleet will be possible after 12z Friday for CNM and HOB.  Low
ceilings will begin coming into the area between 14z and 18z.
Ceilings may worsen after 00z Saturday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement regarding the progression of
a southern stream upper low which will dominate sensible weather
across the region tonight through the upcoming weekend. Recent
water vapor imagery indicates a low pressure circulation currently
off the southwest California/Baja coast, which is progged to
eventually cut off and slowly sink south before progressing
eastward over the coming days. Deep southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the approaching system will allow for significant Pacific
moisture to overspread the area, with precipitable water values
from 0.80 to around 1.00 inch expected by Friday night,
approaching 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of
year. All that said, expectation is for precipitation to begin
from west to east late tonight, though some timing uncertainties
exist due to a dry layer below 750mb that will have to be overcome
before any precipitation reaches the ground. This system, unlike
the previous, is not accompanied by an Arctic intrusion. Thus,
temperatures should remain around or above freezing for the
duration, yielding a cold rain for all but the Guadalupe
Mountains, northern Lea, and northwestern Eddy counties in New
Mexico, where model soundings indicate probabilities for sleet to
mix in with the rain mainly from late tonight through Friday. The
aforementioned locations will likely see a mix of rain and sleet,
with the greatest chance for accumulating sleet and perhaps snow
in the Guadalupe Mountains, where up to 3 inches of accumulation
are possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Guadalupe Mountains from late tonight through Friday afternoon,
please see the appropriate product for details.

By Friday evening, widespread moderate rain is expected across the
area, which could become heavy at times. Locally heavy rainfall
could cause localized flooding problems overnight Friday night,
particularly in areas with poor drainage and traditional low water
crossings. As the closed upper low slowly drifts eastward across
northern Mexico on Saturday the axis of heaviest precipitation
will shift eastward toward central Texas. However, dynamic support
thanks to the nose/left exit region of a 85-90kt 300mb jet as
well as widespread 500mb height falls and increasing midlevel lapse
rates, mainly south and west of the Pecos River in Texas, support
the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms during the day
on Saturday. While the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
portions of southwest Texas for thunderstorms Saturday, no severe
weather is currently anticipated.

A cold front will move southward through the area on Sunday,
helping to push the greatest chance for continued rainfall to the
south, though the accompanying cooler air is not expected to last
very long. However, given ample moisture in place ahead of the
front, there is another chance of thunderstorms from the Trans
Pecos southward to the Big Bend Area during the day on Sunday.
Severe Weather is not anticipated with any storms that develop on
Sunday, though model soundings indicate CAPE values around 850
J/kg in the aforementioned areas, thus, gusty winds and perhaps
even some small hail could be possible.

Through the weekend, continued precipitation and ample cloudcover
will keep temperatures from varying too much, with highs from
around 40 to the mid 50s Friday through Sunday, and lows in the
low 30s to low 40s tonight through Saturday night, and then
dropping into the 20s to 30s behind the front Sunday night.

By Monday upper low will be well to the s and temperatures will
warm slightly, but still below normal. A more noticeable warming
trend will develop Tue when 85h thermal ridging develops and high
temps climb back into the 60s. Meanwhile another cold surge will
be plowing swd thru the nrn high plains arriving in W TX/SE NM
Wed. Blended data does look abit warm. Surface ridging surge again
Thur AM and Thur PM will probably be a little cooler than Wed PM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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028
FXUS64 KMAF 292331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will remain elevated and gusty out of the northeast until
around 06z when they will weaken and shift more toward the east.
Areas of light rain showers will be present lasting through the day
Friday.  Rain mixed with snow and sleet will be possible after 12z
Friday for CNM and HOB.  Low ceilings will begin coming into the
area between 14z and 18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement regarding the progression of
a southern stream upper low which will dominate sensible weather
across the region tonight through the upcoming weekend. Recent
water vapor imagery indicates a low pressure circulation currently
off the southwest California/Baja coast, which is progged to
eventually cut off and slowly sink south before progressing
eastward over the coming days. Deep southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the approaching system will allow for significant Pacific
moisture to overspread the area, with precipitable water values
from 0.80 to around 1.00 inch expected by Friday night,
approaching 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of
year. All that said, expectation is for precipitation to begin
from west to east late tonight, though some timing uncertainties
exist due to a dry layer below 750mb that will have to be overcome
before any precipitation reaches the ground. This system, unlike
the previous, is not accompanied by an Arctic intrusion. Thus,
temperatures should remain around or above freezing for the
duration, yielding a cold rain for all but the Guadalupe
Mountains, northern Lea, and northwestern Eddy counties in New
Mexico, where model soundings indicate probabilities for sleet to
mix in with the rain mainly from late tonight through Friday. The
aforementioned locations will likely see a mix of rain and sleet,
with the greatest chance for accumulating sleet and perhaps snow
in the Guadalupe Mountains, where up to 3 inches of accumulation
are possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Guadalupe Mountains from late tonight through Friday afternoon,
please see the appropriate product for details.

By Friday evening, widespread moderate rain is expected across the
area, which could become heavy at times. Locally heavy rainfall
could cause localized flooding problems overnight Friday night,
particularly in areas with poor drainage and traditional low water
crossings. As the closed upper low slowly drifts eastward across
northern Mexico on Saturday the axis of heaviest precipitation
will shift eastward toward central Texas. However, dynamic support
thanks to the nose/left exit region of a 85-90kt 300mb jet as
well as widespread 500mb height falls and increasing midlevel lapse
rates, mainly south and west of the Pecos River in Texas, support
the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms during the day
on Saturday. While the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
portions of southwest Texas for thunderstorms Saturday, no severe
weather is currently anticipated.

A cold front will move southward through the area on Sunday,
helping to push the greatest chance for continued rainfall to the
south, though the accompanying cooler air is not expected to last
very long. However, given ample moisture in place ahead of the
front, there is another chance of thunderstorms from the Trans
Pecos southward to the Big Bend Area during the day on Sunday.
Severe Weather is not anticipated with any storms that develop on
Sunday, though model soundings indicate CAPE values around 850
J/kg in the aforementioned areas, thus, gusty winds and perhaps
even some small hail could be possible.

Through the weekend, continued precipitation and ample cloudcover
will keep temperatures from varying too much, with highs from
around 40 to the mid 50s Friday through Sunday, and lows in the
low 30s to low 40s tonight through Saturday night, and then
dropping into the 20s to 30s behind the front Sunday night.

By Monday upper low will be well to the s and temperatures will
warm slightly, but still below normal. A more noticeable warming
trend will develop Tue when 85h thermal ridging develops and high
temps climb back into the 60s. Meanwhile another cold surge will
be plowing swd thru the nrn high plains arriving in W TX/SE NM
Wed. Blended data does look abit warm. Surface ridging surge again
Thur AM and Thur PM will probably be a little cooler than Wed PM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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290
FXUS64 KMAF 292131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
331 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement regarding the progression of
a southern stream upper low which will dominate sensible weather
across the region tonight through the upcoming weekend. Recent
water vapor imagery indicates a low pressure circulation currently
off the southwest California/Baja coast, which is progged to
eventually cut off and slowly sink south before progressing
eastward over the coming days. Deep southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the approaching system will allow for significant Pacific
moisture to overspread the area, with precipitable water values
from 0.80 to around 1.00 inch expected by Friday night,
approaching 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of
year. All that said, expectation is for precipitation to begin
from west to east late tonight, though some timing uncertainties
exist due to a dry layer below 750mb that will have to be overcome
before any precipitation reaches the ground. This system, unlike
the previous, is not accompanied by an Arctic intrusion. Thus,
temperatures should remain around or above freezing for the
duration, yielding a cold rain for all but the Guadalupe
Mountains, northern Lea, and northwestern Eddy counties in New
Mexico, where model soundings indicate probabilities for sleet to
mix in with the rain mainly from late tonight through Friday. The
aforementioned locations will likely see a mix of rain and sleet,
with the greatest chance for accumulating sleet and perhaps snow
in the Guadalupe Mountains, where up to 3 inches of accumulation
are possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Guadalupe Mountains from late tonight through Friday afternoon,
please see the appropriate product for details.

By Friday evening, widespread moderate rain is expected across the
area, which could become heavy at times. Locally heavy rainfall
could cause localized flooding problems overnight Friday night,
particularly in areas with poor drainage and traditional low water
crossings. As the closed upper low slowly drifts eastward across
northern Mexico on Saturday the axis of heaviest precipitation
will shift eastward toward central Texas. However, dynamic support
thanks to the nose/left exit region of a 85-90kt 300mb jet as
well as widespread 500mb height falls and increasing midlevel lapse
rates, mainly south and west of the Pecos River in Texas, support
the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms during the day
on Saturday. While the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
portions of southwest Texas for thunderstorms Saturday, no severe
weather is currently anticipated.

A cold front will move southward through the area on Sunday,
helping to push the greatest chance for continued rainfall to the
south, though the accompanying cooler air is not expected to last
very long. However, given ample moisture in place ahead of the
front, there is another chance of thunderstorms from the Trans
Pecos southward to the Big Bend Area during the day on Sunday.
Severe Weather is not anticipated with any storms that develop on
Sunday, though model soundings indicate CAPE values around 850
J/kg in the aforementioned areas, thus, gusty winds and perhaps
even some small hail could be possible.

Through the weekend, continued precipitation and ample cloudcover
will keep temperatures from varying too much, with highs from
around 40 to the mid 50s Friday through Sunday, and lows in the
low 30s to low 40s tonight through Saturday night, and then
dropping into the 20s to 30s behind the front Sunday night.

By Monday upper low will be well to the s and temperatures will
warm slightly, but still below normal. A more noticeable warming
trend will develop Tue when 85h thermal ridging develops and high
temps climb back into the 60s. Meanwhile another cold surge will
be plowing swd thru the nrn high plains arriving in W TX/SE NM
Wed. Blended data does look abit warm. Surface ridging surge again
Thur AM and Thur PM will probably be a little cooler than Wed PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  42  36  47  /  30  50  90  70
BIG SPRING TX              37  46  38  47  /  10  30  90  80
CARLSBAD NM                37  39  36  50  /  60  80  90  50
DRYDEN TX                  47  52  45  54  /  10  20  80  80
FORT STOCKTON TX           40  47  42  56  /  20  40  90  70
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  35  32  49  /  60  80  90  50
HOBBS NM                   35  39  33  45  /  40  70  90  60
MARFA TX                   35  46  33  55  /  30  40  90  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  46  38  50  /  20  40  90  80
ODESSA TX                  36  46  38  49  /  20  40  90  70
WINK TX                    41  46  40  53  /  40  60  90  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/84

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255
FXUS64 KMAF 291739 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1139 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
We have opted to go ahead and start the NPW for GDP Pass earlier
with winds increasing there in the last hr. Products will be
updated shortly for that.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty post-frontal NE winds will prevail today with G25-30kts most
sites, a little less farther s. Meanwhile clouds will increase thru
the day and into the night, but are not expected to fall below MVFR
before 12Z/Fri.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will push south through all area terminals through
29/18Z with gusty north to northeast winds in it`s wake.  Ceilings
and visibilities will stay VFR through the day, and even overnight
as surface winds gradually decrease.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

The stage is set for another round of unsettled weather beginning
tonight and continuing through at least Saturday night. A cold
front is currently sagging south through southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin. This front will continue to push south as an
upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley and east coast
today. Behind this front temperatures will get knocked back to
near normal values this afternoon. In addition, strong northeast
winds will channel through Guadalupe Pass behind this front
tonight and Friday morning and a High Wind Warning has been issued
for that area.

In the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently
along the west coast will close off and intensify and move slowly
southeast across the desert southwest and then east across Mexico
the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong large scale
forcing is expected to produce a high probability of widespread
precipitation beginning tonight through Saturday night. Also, as
this upper low moves toward the region the northern stream will
continue to supply colder low level air. Forecast soundings
indicate the potential for a mixed bag of rain, snow, sleet tonight
through Friday and or Saturday night across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains. Still
not sure how much snow accumulation will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains because the NAM model is showing a pronounced and
persistent mid level warm layer while the GFS model is not. If it
turns out that the warm layer is minimal, than a few inches of
snow and sleet could accumulate in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupes. Outside of that region, the best chance of any
accumulating snow will be across the northern third of Lea County
New Mexico tonight through Friday night, but less than 1 inch is
expected in a best case scenario at this time per a blend of
model soundings.

By Sunday the upper level trough axis is expected to approach the
area with the upper low sinking south and weakening through
Mexico. The better forcing will diminish and shift away from the
area as the upper low sinks south, so precipitation chances will
be on the decrease. In addition by this time period the lower
levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the
precipitation to fall as rain.

By Sunday night through next Wednesday the upper level low
pressure system is forecast to continue to weaken and move
across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south
of the forecast area. Temperatures will moderate to normal by
next Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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430
FXUS64 KMAF 291121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will push south through all area terminals through
29/18Z with gusty north to northeast winds in it`s wake.  Ceilings
and visibilities will stay VFR through the day, and even overnight
as surface winds gradually decrease.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

The stage is set for another round of unsettled weather beginning
tonight and continuing through at least Saturday night. A cold
front is currently sagging south through southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin. This front will continue to push south as an
upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley and east coast
today. Behind this front temperatures will get knocked back to
near normal values this afternoon. In addition, strong northeast
winds will channel through Guadalupe Pass behind this front
tonight and Friday morning and a High Wind Warning has been issued
for that area.

In the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently
along the west coast will close off and intensify and move slowly
southeast across the desert southwest and then east across Mexico
the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong large scale
forcing is expected to produce a high probability of widespread
precipitation beginning tonight through Saturday night. Also, as
this upper low moves toward the region the northern stream will
continue to supply colder low level air. Forecast soundings
indicate the potential for a mixed bag of rain, snow, sleet tonight
through Friday and or Saturday night across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains. Still
not sure how much snow accumulation will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains because the NAM model is showing a pronounced and
persistent mid level warm layer while the GFS model is not. If it
turns out that the warm layer is minimal, than a few inches of
snow and sleet could accumulate in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupes. Outside of that region, the best chance of any
accumulating snow will be across the northern third of Lea County
New Mexico tonight through Friday night, but less than 1 inch is
expected in a best case scenario at this time per a blend of
model soundings.

By Sunday the upper level trough axis is expected to approach the
area with the upper low sinking south and weakening through
Mexico. The better forcing will diminish and shift away from the
area as the upper low sinks south, so precipitation chances will
be on the decrease. In addition by this time period the lower
levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the
precipitation to fall as rain.

By Sunday night through next Wednesday the upper level low
pressure system is forecast to continue to weaken and move
across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south
of the forecast area. Temperatures will moderate to normal by
next Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  35  41  35  /   0  30  50  80
BIG SPRING TX              61  36  44  36  /   0  10  30  70
CARLSBAD NM                58  36  38  35  /  10  60  70  80
DRYDEN TX                  74  46  51  44  /   0  10  20  70
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  39  47  41  /   0  20  40  80
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  31  37  32  /  10  60  80  80
HOBBS NM                   56  33  38  35  /   0  40  70  80
MARFA TX                   63  37  48  37  /   0  30  40  80
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  36  43  37  /   0  20  40  80
ODESSA TX                  59  36  44  37  /   0  20  40  80
WINK TX                    63  39  46  38  /   0  40  60  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12

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988
FXUS64 KMAF 291052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
452 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The stage is set for another round of unsettled weather beginning
tonight and continuing through at least Saturday night. A cold
front is currently sagging south through southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin. This front will continue to push south as an
upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley and east coast
today. Behind this front temperatures will get knocked back to
near normal values this afternoon. In addition, strong northeast
winds will channel through Guadalupe Pass behind this front tonight
and Friday morning and a High Wind Warning has been issued for
that area.

In the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently
along the west coast will close off and intensify and move slowly
southeast across the desert southwest and then east across Mexico
the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong large scale
forcing is expected to produce a high probability of widespread
precipitation beginning tonight through Saturday night. Also, as
this upper low moves toward the region the northern stream will
continue to supply colder low level air. Forecast soundings
indicate the potential for a mix bag of rain, snow, sleet tonight
through Friday and or Saturday night across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains. Still
not sure how much snow accumulation will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains because the NAM model is showing a pronounced and
persistent mid level warm layer while the GFS model is not. If it
turns out that the warm layer is minimal, than a few inches of
snow and sleet could accumulate in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupes. Outside of that region, the best chance of any
accumulating snow will be across the northern third of Lea County
New Mexico tonight through Friday night, but less than 1 inch is
expected in a best case scenario at this time per a blend of
model soundings.

By Sunday the upper level trough axis is expected to approach the
area with the upper low sinking south and weakening through
Mexico. The better forcing will diminish and shift away from the
area as the upper low sinks south, so precipitation chances will
be on the decrease. In addition by this time period the lower
levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the
precipitation to fall as rain.

By Sunday night through next Wednesday the upper level low
pressure system is forecast to continue to weaken and move
across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south
of the forecast area. Temperatures will moderate to normal by
next Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  35  41  35  /   0  30  50  80
BIG SPRING TX              61  36  44  36  /   0  10  30  70
CARLSBAD NM                58  36  38  35  /  10  60  70  80
DRYDEN TX                  74  46  51  44  /   0  10  20  70
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  39  47  41  /   0  20  40  80
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  31  37  32  /  10  60  80  80
HOBBS NM                   56  33  38  35  /   0  40  70  80
MARFA TX                   63  37  48  37  /   0  30  40  80
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  36  43  37  /   0  20  40  80
ODESSA TX                  59  36  44  37  /   0  20  40  80
WINK TX                    63  39  46  38  /   0  40  60  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Friday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12

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258
FXUS64 KMAF 290353
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
953 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest NAM buffer soundings
put fropa at KHOB at around 12Z...and KCNM/KFST at 19Z, w/gusty
post-frontal conditions into the evening. Cigs behind the front
should have bases 5 kft agl or higher.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Models continue to show the next upper level low moving into
northwestern Mexico by the weekend bringing widespread
precipitation to our area. Rainfall will develop around the Van
Horn area late Thursday and spread east Friday into Saturday.
Vertical sounding profiles still show temperatures too warm for
snow for most areas, with the best chances for snow being in the
Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwestern
Permian Basin. There is some disagreement between guidance and raw
model data forecast dewpoints and temperatures which could affect
the precipitation type. Guidance suggests temperatures will be cold
enough to support snow for roughly all areas north of I-20 while
the raw data is too warm for snow. Given the large amount of
precipitation it may be difficult for dewpoints to drop low enough
for evaporative cooling to lower the temperatures so this forecast
continues with mostly rain. Models have backed off slightly on QPF
amounts, but PWATs double the norm for this time of year mean some
locations could receive in excess of an inch of rain. An upper low
in January 2013 brought over an inch of rain and some flooding to
Midland so it is definitely possible. The warm temperatures and
wet ground will make it difficult for any snow that falls to
accumulate, but one to two inches would not be out of the
question, especially in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains.

The moisture will push off to the east on Sunday bringing an end
to the rain while the upper low slowly meanders into central
Mexico. A modest ridge will develop over the western U.S. keeping
us in northwesterly flow and allowing for only a slow warm up
early next week with highs reaching near normal by Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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351
FXUS64 KMAF 282259
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
459 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest NAM buffer
soundings put fropa at KHOB at around 14Z...and KPEQ at 18Z,
w/gusty post-frontal conditions the rest of the day. Cigs behind
the front should have bases 6 kft agl or higher.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Models continue to show the next upper level low moving into
northwestern Mexico by the weekend bringing widespread
precipitation to our area. Rainfall will develop around the Van
Horn area late Thursday and spread east Friday into Saturday.
Vertical sounding profiles still show temperatures too warm for
snow for most areas, with the best chances for snow being in the
Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwestern
Permian Basin. There is some disagreement between guidance and raw
model data forecast dewpoints and temperatures which could affect
the precipitation type. Guidance suggests temperatures will be cold
enough to support snow for roughly all areas north of I-20 while
the raw data is too warm for snow. Given the large amount of
precipitation it may be difficult for dewpoints to drop low enough
for evaporative cooling to lower the temperatures so this forecast
continues with mostly rain. Models have backed off slightly on QPF
amounts, but PWATs double the norm for this time of year mean some
locations could receive in excess of an inch of rain. An upper low
in January 2013 brought over an inch of rain and some flooding to
Midland so it is definitely possible. The warm temperatures and
wet ground will make it difficult for any snow that falls to
accumulate, but one to two inches would not be out of the
question, especially in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains.

The moisture will push off to the east on Sunday bringing an end
to the rain while the upper low slowly meanders into central
Mexico. A modest ridge will develop over the western U.S. keeping
us in northwesterly flow and allowing for only a slow warm up
early next week with highs reaching near normal by Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 282031
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Models continue to show the next upper level low moving into
northwestern Mexico by the weekend bringing widespread
precipitation to our area. Rainfall will develop around the Van
Horn area late Thursday and spread east Friday into Saturday.
Vertical sounding profiles still show temperatures too warm for
snow for most areas, with the best chances for snow being in the
Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwestern
Permian Basin. There is some disagreement between guidance and raw
model data forecast dewpoints and temperatures which could affect
the precipitation type. Guidance suggests temperatures will be cold
enough to support snow for roughly all areas north of I-20 while
the raw data is too warm for snow. Given the large amount of
precipitation it may be difficult for dewpoints to drop low enough
for evaporative cooling to lower the temperatures so this forecast
continues with mostly rain. Models have backed off slightly on QPF
amounts, but PWATs double the norm for this time of year mean some
locations could receive in excess of an inch of rain. An upper low
in January 2013 brought over an inch of rain and some flooding to
Midland so it is definitely possible. The warm temperatures and
wet ground will make it difficult for any snow that falls to
accumulate, but one to two inches would not be out of the
question, especially in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains.

The moisture will push off to the east on Sunday bringing an end
to the rain while the upper low slowly meanders into central
Mexico. A modest ridge will develop over the western U.S. keeping
us in northwesterly flow and allowing for only a slow warm up
early next week with highs reaching near normal by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 43  58  35  43  /   0   0  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              46  60  36  47  /   0   0  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                41  58  36  41  /   0   0  50  60
DRYDEN TX                  48  71  46  52  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  64  39  48  /   0   0  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  53  31  38  /   0   0  50  60
HOBBS NM                   40  56  33  39  /   0   0  40  50
MARFA TX                   42  64  37  47  /   0   0  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  59  36  46  /   0   0  30  40
ODESSA TX                  45  60  36  46  /   0   0  30  40
WINK TX                    44  62  39  46  /   0   0  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10

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198
FXUS64 KMAF 281738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will move into Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
after 09z. This will result in a surface wind shift to the
north. Surface winds behind the front will be breezy. Increasing
high level cloudiness is expected. However, VFR conditions are
expected area wide through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another mild day is in store for southeast New Mexico and west Texas
today.  As a matter of fact, it`ll be pretty warm with temperatures
rising nearly 20 degrees above normal and challenging record highs.
This will occur as a surface trough strengthens over the southern
U.S. Plains and into the region ahead of a cold front.  Enjoy today
since temperatures will drop back to around normal levels Thursday,
especially north of Interstate 10.  Behind the front Thursday night,
gap winds in the Guadalupes may rise to at least 35 to 45 mph, so
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now.  The
forecast will turn wet thereafter as a highly amplified upper trough
currently off the California coast heads east.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, and as the associated surface
ridge settles south into the area Thursday night, we should see rain
begin to break out over the western half of the forecast area.  This
will occur as low level easterly upslope flow combines with deep
layer lift ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and the approach of
the RRQ of a 90kt h25 jet.  Eastward progress of the rain may be a
little slow through the day Friday, but should become widespread
over the entire area Friday night as the above features move
overhead.  Therefore, have tempered rain chances a little over the
eastern CWA Friday, but increased PoPs areawide Friday night.  Some
wintry precipitation could mix in late Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation could
change to sleet or snow around 6kft in the Guadalupes, if not
northern Lea County.  Did not go with much accumulation since
temperatures through the atmospheric column are only marginally
conducive for some bursts of sleet and/or snow, heights/thicknesses
ahead of the upper trough are not very low and lastly surface
temperatures are just not very cold.  Later shifts will have to
monitor for any changes in any, or all, of the above.  For now, will
make a mention of a mix possible in these areas.  There could be
some localized, but minor flooding problems Friday and Friday night
as pwats rise to around 1 inch, or 2 s.d. above normal.  The best
moisture will head east on Saturday, and take the better rain
chances with it.

An elongated, positively tilted ua trough will extend over the
region by Saturday night.  An upper low will calve from this ua
trough and sink well south over Mexico.  There may be some light
precipitation over the area on Saturday night and Sunday as another
cold front moves south into the area.  The only shot at wintry
precipitation appears to be the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
southeast New Mexico again.  Since moisture will be a little more
scarce, do not think there will be any appreciable accumulations.
Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through early next
week, but it appears near to above normal readings will be possible
Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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525
FXUS64 KMAF 281111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
511 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with some high clouds are expected the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots. A cold
front with a wind shift to the north and northeast is expected
late in the period across the northern terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another mild day is in store for southeast New Mexico and west Texas
today.  As a matter of fact, it`ll be pretty warm with temperatures
rising nearly 20 degrees above normal and challenging record highs.
This will occur as a surface trough strengthens over the southern
U.S. Plains and into the region ahead of a cold front.  Enjoy today
since temperatures will drop back to around normal levels Thursday,
especially north of Interstate 10.  Behind the front Thursday night,
gap winds in the Guadalupes may rise to at least 35 to 45 mph, so
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now.  The
forecast will turn wet thereafter as a highly amplified upper trough
currently off the California coast heads east.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, and as the associated surface
ridge settles south into the area Thursday night, we should see rain
begin to break out over the western half of the forecast area.  This
will occur as low level easterly upslope flow combines with deep
layer lift ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and the approach of
the RRQ of a 90kt h25 jet.  Eastward progress of the rain may be a
little slow through the day Friday, but should become widespread
over the entire area Friday night as the above features move
overhead.  Therefore, have tempered rain chances a little over the
eastern CWA Friday, but increased PoPs areawide Friday night.  Some
wintry precipitation could mix in late Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation could
change to sleet or snow around 6kft in the Guadalupes, if not
northern Lea County.  Did not go with much accumulation since
temperatures through the atmospheric column are only marginally
conducive for some bursts of sleet and/or snow, heights/thicknesses
ahead of the upper trough are not very low and lastly surface
temperatures are just not very cold.  Later shifts will have to
monitor for any changes in any, or all, of the above.  For now, will
make a mention of a mix possible in these areas.  There could be
some localized, but minor flooding problems Friday and Friday night
as pwats rise to around 1 inch, or 2 s.d. above normal.  The best
moisture will head east on Saturday, and take the better rain
chances with it.

An elongated, positively tilted ua trough will extend over the
region by Saturday night.  An upper low will calve from this ua
trough and sink well south over Mexico.  There may be some light
precipitation over the area on Saturday night and Sunday as another
cold front moves south into the area.  The only shot at wintry
precipitation appears to be the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
southeast New Mexico again.  Since moisture will be a little more
scarce, do not think there will be any appreciable accumulations.
Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through early next
week, but it appears near to above normal readings will be possible
Tuesday and beyond.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  43  58  39  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              79  46  60  38  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                78  43  57  39  /   0   0  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  81  52  74  49  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  45  60  42  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  44  52  34  /   0   0  10  60
HOBBS NM                   75  39  54  36  /   0   0  10  30
MARFA TX                   74  36  61  40  /   0   0  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  44  59  40  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  77  45  58  40  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    79  45  62  42  /   0   0   0  30

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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443
FXUS64 KMAF 280935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
335 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Another mild day is in store for southeast New Mexico and west Texas
today.  As a matter of fact, it`ll be pretty warm with temperatures
rising nearly 20 degrees above normal and challenging record highs.
This will occur as a surface trough strengthens over the southern
U.S. Plains and into the region ahead of a cold front.  Enjoy today
since temperatures will drop back to around normal levels Thursday,
especially north of Interstate 10.  Behind the front Thursday night,
gap winds in the Guadalupes may rise to at least 35 to 45 mph, so
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now.  The
forecast will turn wet thereafter as a highly amplified upper trough
currently off the California coast heads east.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, and as the associated surface
ridge settles south into the area Thursday night, we should see rain
begin to break out over the western half of the forecast area.  This
will occur as low level easterly upslope flow combines with deep
layer lift ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and the approach of
the RRQ of a 90kt h25 jet.  Eastward progress of the rain may be a
little slow through the day Friday, but should become widespread
over the entire area Friday night as the above features move
overhead.  Therefore, have tempered rain chances a little over the
eastern CWA Friday, but increased PoPs areawide Friday night.  Some
wintry precipitation could mix in late Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation could
change to sleet or snow around 6kft in the Guadalupes, if not
northern Lea County.  Did not go with much accumulation since
temperatures through the atmospheric column are only marginally
conducive for some bursts of sleet and/or snow, heights/thicknesses
ahead of the upper trough are not very low and lastly surface
temperatures are just not very cold.  Later shifts will have to
monitor for any changes in any, or all, of the above.  For now, will
make a mention of a mix possible in these areas.  There could be
some localized, but minor flooding problems Friday and Friday night
as pwats rise to around 1 inch, or 2 s.d. above normal.  The best
moisture will head east on Saturday, and take the better rain
chances with it.

An elongated, positively tilted ua trough will extend over the
region by Saturday night.  An upper low will calve from this ua
trough and sink well south over Mexico.  There may be some light
precipitation over the area on Saturday night and Sunday as another
cold front moves south into the area.  The only shot at wintry
precipitation appears to be the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
southeast New Mexico again.  Since moisture will be a little more
scarce, do not think there will be any appreciable accumulations.
Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through early next
week, but it appears near to above normal readings will be possible
Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  43  58  39  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              79  46  60  38  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                78  43  57  39  /   0   0  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  81  52  74  49  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  45  60  42  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  44  52  34  /   0   0  10  60
HOBBS NM                   75  39  54  36  /   0   0  10  30
MARFA TX                   74  36  61  40  /   0   0  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  44  59  40  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  77  45  58  40  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    79  45  62  42  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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796
FXUS64 KMAF 280347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
947 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 06z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Generally light
westerly sfc flow will continue, w/a few high clouds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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077
FXUS64 KMAF 272255
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
455 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light sfc flow will
veer slightly to W, w/a few high clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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268
FXUS64 KMAF 271949
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The main feature of interest is an upper low over the Western US.
The initial low looks to move off to the NE around the top of a
ridge over the center of the country... but a secondary low off the
coast develops into a deep trough by late Thursday as it moves
ashore and becoming cut off by Friday.  Still uncertainty in the
models as to if this low just spins across Mexico into next week or
kicks out.

Have cooled temps a few degrees tonight and warmed Wednesdays
readings.  An upper ridge over the area will result in another warm
day on Wednesday with a west wind at the surface.  A cold front
looks to blow through early Thursday with a fairly brisk fropa.  NE
wind will be chilly and veer around to the E by evening.  Should
have increasing mid and high clouds ahead of the low as Pacific
moisture flows into the region.

Precip chances start Thursday night out west and spread east across
the area Friday through Sunday.  Shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the low will provide plenty of lift.  Most of the precip should be
as rain as temps look too warm.  Snow mainly confined to the
Guadalupes.  Late Friday into Saturday looks to be the best chance
of precip.  Model soundings show PW in the Permian Basin pushing up
to close to an inch... could end up with good rainfall.  Actually
have had well above normal precipitation year to date and have
potential to get a good amount more.  Briefly discussed possibility
of a Flash Flood Watch but will hold off for now... will emphasis in
the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  77  40  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              42  79  43  56  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  76  38  56  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  49  79  47  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  80  45  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  67  41  49  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   37  75  39  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  74  37  62  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  78  41  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  77  41  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    38  79  40  58  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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041
FXUS64 KMAF 271721
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light westerly winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Mid and high cloud will decrease today as moisture at these levels
heads into an upper ridge axis over the region.  Pretty good heating
will occur across the forecast area with temperatures rising a good
10 to 15 degrees above normal.  The same appears to be on tap
Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the region, except highs
could be closer to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  A shortwave
trough will translate southeastward through the northern/central
U.S. Plains Wednesday, and send a cold front south into the area
Thursday.  We should see temperatures closer to seasonal norms,
especially as mid and high cloud begin to increase ahead of a sharp
upper trough off the California coast/Baja Peninsula.

A cool surface high will become entrenched over the forecast area
Thursday night while copious amounts of mid and upper level moisture
stream northeastward over the region ahead of the mentioned ua
trough.  A series of mid level shortwave troughs will move over the
region ahead of the ua trough, and along with the RRQ of a 90kt h25
jet, promote large scale ascent above the cool surface airmass.  No
instability is indicated above the boundary layer, and mid level
lapse rates are paltry, so do not think we will see any convection.
However, rain will become widespread over the area, then last
through the day Friday before tapering off somewhat Friday night/
Saturday morning as the best moisture shifts east of the area.
Models bring precipitable water values to near 1 inch across the
forecast area, which is 2 standard deviations above normal!
Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in 1 to 2 inches amounts in
a few locations, and could lead to minor flooding problems.
Although the air through the atmospheric column may be cold enough
to support some snowfall in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains Friday and Friday night, think the rainfall rates
will be great enough to overwhelm cooler surface temperatures and
keep readings above freezing.  Therefore, will carry only negligible
snowfall amounts in those areas.

The upper trough could linger over Mexico into early next week.
Models diverge on it`s movement so have cloven a path down the
middle.  This entails another cold front moving into the area
Sunday, along with a slight chance of mainly rain.  Will keep
temperatures near normal through the rest of the forecast period
and have little to no chance of precipitation after Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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915
FXUS64 KMAF 271115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
515 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under partly cloudy
skies. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Mid and high cloud will decrease today as moisture at these levels
heads into an upper ridge axis over the region.  Pretty good heating
will occur across the forecast area with temperatures rising a good
10 to 15 degrees above normal.  The same appears to be on tap
Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the region, except highs
could be closer to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  A shortwave
trough will translate southeastward through the northern/central
U.S. Plains Wednesday, and send a cold front south into the area
Thursday.  We should see temperatures closer to seasonal norms,
especially as mid and high cloud begin to increase ahead of a sharp
upper trough off the California coast/Baja Peninsula.

A cool surface high will become entrenched over the forecast area
Thursday night while copious amounts of mid and upper level moisture
stream northeastward over the region ahead of the mentioned ua
trough.  A series of mid level shortwave troughs will move over the
region ahead of the ua trough, and along with the RRQ of a 90kt h25
jet, promote large scale ascent above the cool surface airmass.  No
instability is indicated above the boundary layer, and mid level
lapse rates are paltry, so do not think we will see any convection.
However, rain will become widespread over the area, then last
through the day Friday before tapering off somewhat Friday night/
Saturday morning as the best moisture shifts east of the area.
Models bring precipitable water values to near 1 inch across the
forecast area, which is 2 standard deviations above normal!
Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in 1 to 2 inches amounts in
a few locations, and could lead to minor flooding problems.
Although the air through the atmospheric column may be cold enough
to support some snowfall in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains Friday and Friday night, think the rainfall rates
will be great enough to overwhelm cooler surface temperatures and
keep readings above freezing.  Therefore, will carry only negligible
snowfall amounts in those areas.

The upper trough could linger over Mexico into early next week.
Models diverge on it`s movement so have cloven a path down the
middle.  This entails another cold front moving into the area
Sunday, along with a slight chance of mainly rain.  Will keep
temperatures near normal through the rest of the forecast period
and have little to no chance of precipitation after Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  45  74  44  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              75  45  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  36  74  42  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77  50  79  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  48  78  48  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  47  65  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   70  41  72  41  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   67  35  71  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  46  75  45  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  71  46  74  45  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    73  35  77  44  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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001
FXUS64 KMAF 270942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
342 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Mid and high cloud will decrease today as moisture at these levels
heads into an upper ridge axis over the region.  Pretty good heating
will occur across the forecast area with temperatures rising a good
10 to 15 degrees above normal.  The same appears to be on tap
Wednesday as the upper ridge remains over the region, except highs
could be closer to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.  A shortwave
trough will translate southeastward through the northern/central
U.S. Plains Wednesday, and send a cold front south into the area
Thursday.  We should see temperatures closer to seasonal norms,
especially as mid and high cloud begin to increase ahead of a sharp
upper trough off the California coast/Baja Peninsula.

A cool surface high will become entrenched over the forecast area
Thursday night while copious amounts of mid and upper level moisture
stream northeastward over the region ahead of the mentioned ua
trough.  A series of mid level shortwave troughs will move over the
region ahead of the ua trough, and along with the RRQ of a 90kt h25
jet, promote large scale ascent above the cool surface airmass.  No
instability is indicated above the boundary layer, and mid level
lapse rates are paltry, so do not think we will see any convection.
However, rain will become widespread over the area, then last
through the day Friday before tapering off somewhat Friday night/
Saturday morning as the best moisture shifts east of the area.
Models bring precipitable water values to near 1 inch across the
forecast area, which is 2 standard deviations above normal!
Moderate to heavy rainfall could result in 1 to 2 inches amounts in
a few locations, and could lead to minor flooding problems.
Although the air through the atmospheric column may be cold enough
to support some snowfall in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains Friday and Friday night, think the rainfall rates
will be great enough to overwhelm cooler surface temperatures and
keep readings above freezing.  Therefore, will carry only negligible
snowfall amounts in those areas.

The upper trough could linger over Mexico into early next week.
Models diverge on it`s movement so have cloven a path down the
middle.  This entails another cold front moving into the area
Sunday, along with a slight chance of mainly rain.  Will keep
temperatures near normal through the rest of the forecast period
and have little to no chance of precipitation after Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  45  74  44  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              75  45  78  47  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  36  74  42  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77  50  79  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  48  78  48  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  47  65  45  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   70  41  72  41  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   67  35  71  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  46  75  45  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  71  46  74  45  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    73  35  77  44  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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746
FXUS64 KMAF 270508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1108 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours with VFR conditions
prevailing. Wly winds today turn more sly after 00Z/Tue, but still
less than 10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites. Light wly winds
thru night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.

Hennig

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  70  44  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  74  45  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                36  70  41  71  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  75  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  71  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  59  45  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  67  42  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  67  41  67  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  72  44  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  37  72  45  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  72  43  75  /   0   0   0   0


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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852
FXUS64 KMAF 262334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
534 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites. Light wly winds
thru night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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861
FXUS64 KMAF 262049
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  70  44  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  74  45  75  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                36  70  41  71  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  75  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  71  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  59  45  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  67  42  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  67  41  67  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  72  44  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  37  72  45  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  72  43  75  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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310
FXUS64 KMAF 261742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with copious amounts of high clouds expected. Wind will be
light and generally out of the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show another relatively warm night shaping up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in generally northwest flow, aided
by a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming a veil of high clouds
across the region in zonal flow aloft.  WV imagery shows the upper
cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is
exiting the MS Valley.  These two features have sandwiched a
highly-amped ridge over the area.  Baja ridge is still forecast to
shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the
ridge and sending it east.  As the trough moves north, isolated
-SHRA can`t be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley.
Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow
component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures
over the next few days.  By Wednesday afternoon, it`ll feel more
light mid May around here than late January, as afternoon highs top
out in the 70s.

Unfortunately, the shearing Baja trough is forecast to top the
ridge, and join forces w/a shortwave diving out of Canada, dropping
a cold front into the FA late Wednesday night.  This will knock
temps back down Thursday afternoon, although still abv normal.  As
this is taking place, another upper trough will reach the west
coast, and is forecast to close off over SoCal/SW AZ sometime
Friday.  This will set up West Texas/SE NM for a wet weekend, w/a
chance of -SHRA beginning as soon as Thursday night, exacerbated by
isentropic upglide beginning Friday, as the trough begins sending
shortwaves into the area in SW flow aloft.  A secondary cold front
is due in Friday night/Saturday to help things along, although the
GFS is a little faster w/fropa than the ECMWF.  Mid/hi-lvl moisture
from the west and easterly low-lvl moisture will saturate the column
by 00Z Saturday, w/the GFS developing PWATs over 1" by then...over 3
std devs abv normal and abv the 99th percentile for January.  Thus,
the potential for abundant rainfall persists.  Precip should remain
liquid Thu night/Fri, as the secondary front arrives Friday night at
the earliest.  Attm, forecast soundings for Fri night/Sat suggest a
mix will be possible only in the N and NW fringes of the FA.
Saturday night could see a changeover to -SN most areas, but
soundings dry out considerably from 00Z-12Z Sun, so accumulations
should be minimal.  Precip continues tapering off Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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382
FXUS64 KMAF 261106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.  Light and
somewhat variable winds are expected with mid and high level clouds
over the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show another relatively warm night shaping up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in generally northwest flow, aided
by a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming a veil of high clouds
across the region in zonal flow aloft.  WV imagery shows the upper
cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is
exiting the MS Valley.  These two features have sandwiched a
highly-amped ridge over the area.  Baja ridge is still forecast to
shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the
ridge and sending it east.  As the trough moves north, isolated
-SHRA can`t be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley.
Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow
component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures
over the next few days.  By Wednesday afternoon, it`ll feel more
light mid May around here than late January, as afternoon highs top
out in the 70s.

Unfortunately, the shearing Baja trough is forecast to top the
ridge, and join forces w/a shortwave diving out of Canada, dropping
a cold front into the FA late Wednesday night.  This will knock
temps back down Thursday afternoon, although still abv normal.  As
this is taking place, another upper trough will reach the west
coast, and is forecast to close off over SoCal/SW AZ sometime
Friday.  This will set up West Texas/SE NM for a wet weekend, w/a
chance of -SHRA beginning as soon as Thursday night, exacerbated by
isentropic upglide beginning Friday, as the trough begins sending
shortwaves into the area in SW flow aloft.  A secondary cold front
is due in Friday night/Saturday to help things along, although the
GFS is a little faster w/fropa than the ECMWF.  Mid/hi-lvl moisture
from the west and easterly low-lvl moisture will saturate the column
by 00Z Saturday, w/the GFS developing PWATs over 1" by then...over 3
std devs abv normal and abv the 99th percentile for January.  Thus,
the potential for abundant rainfall persists.  Precip should remain
liquid Thu night/Fri, as the secondary front arrives Friday night at
the earliest.  Attm, forecast soundings for Fri night/Sat suggest a
mix will be possible only in the N and NW fringes of the FA.
Saturday night could see a changeover to -SN most areas, but
soundings dry out considerably from 00Z-12Z Sun, so accumulations
should be minimal.  Precip continues tapering off Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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756
FXUS64 KMAF 261000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show another relatively warm night shaping up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, in generally northwest flow, aided
by a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming a veil of high clouds
across the region in zonal flow aloft.  WV imagery shows the upper
cut-off low west of Baja, while to the east, an upper trough is
exiting the MS Valley.  These two features have sandwiched a
highly-amped ridge over the area.  Baja ridge is still forecast to
shear out and rejoin the flow over the next few days, flattening the
ridge and sending it east.  As the trough moves north, isolated
-SHRA can`t be ruled out this evening over the Presidio Valley.
Otherwise, the ridge, combined w/a light westerly downslope flow
component, will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures
over the next few days.  By Wednesday afternoon, it`ll feel more
light mid May around here than late January, as afternoon highs top
out in the 70s.

Unfortunately, the shearing Baja trough is forecast to top the
ridge, and join forces w/a shortwave diving out of Canada, dropping
a cold front into the FA late Wednesday night.  This will knock
temps back down Thursday afternoon, although still abv normal.  As
this is taking place, another upper trough will reach the west
coast, and is forecast to close off over SoCal/SW AZ sometime
Friday.  This will set up West Texas/SE NM for a wet weekend, w/a
chance of -SHRA beginning as soon as Thursday night, exacerbated by
isentropic upglide beginning Friday, as the trough begins sending
shortwaves into the area in SW flow aloft.  A secondary cold front
is due in Friday night/Saturday to help things along, although the
GFS is a little faster w/fropa than the ECMWF.  Mid/hi-lvl moisture
from the west and easterly low-lvl moisture will saturate the column
by 00Z Saturday, w/the GFS developing PWATs over 1" by then...over 3
std devs abv normal and abv the 99th percentile for January.  Thus,
the potential for abundant rainfall persists.  Precip should remain
liquid Thu night/Fri, as the secondary front arrives Friday night at
the earliest.  Attm, forecast soundings for Fri night/Sat suggest a
mix will be possible only in the N and NW fringes of the FA.
Saturday night could see a changeover to -SN most areas, but
soundings dry out considerably from 00Z-12Z Sun, so accumulations
should be minimal.  Precip continues tapering off Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  37  72  43  /   0  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  37  73  44  /   0  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  36  68  42  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  45  73  50  /   0  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  40  74  47  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  46  65  49  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   66  36  71  43  /   0  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  35  68  38  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  38  71  44  /   0  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  68  38  71  44  /   0  10   0   0
WINK TX                    66  34  72  43  /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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411
FXUS64 KMAF 260507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1106 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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272
FXUS64 KMAF 252321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals with light/variable winds and mostly clear
skies in place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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090
FXUS64 KMAF 252034
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front moved through the area this morning but you wouldn`t
know it looking at the temperatures. Highs today will actually be
warmer than they were yesterday with a northerly wind shift the
only evidence of the frontal passage. The upper pattern early this
week will feature weak ridging/westerly flow which will continue
above normal highs into Wednesday.

Thursday is when we will see a major shift in the weather pattern
as an upper low digs into southern California creating a split jet
over the western CONUS. The northern stream will edge up into
western Canada and drop into the Central Plains pushing a cold
front into Texas on Thursday. This will provide some cooling, but
the southern stream will be the one to watch as it advects
moisture off the Pacific and brings a return of precipitation. The
GFS continues to be the most aggressive in not only the areal
extent of the rainfall, but also in duration and QPF though the
other models are definitely trending towards the wetter solution.
Have upped PoPs to "likely" for much of the area Friday night into
Saturday which is certainly a rarity for so far out in the
forecast but model consensus provides more confidence than usual
in this wet forecast. Precipitation is expected to start Thursday
night and continue all the way into Sunday thanks to a very slow
moving or perhaps even stationary upper low to our west.

The biggest uncertainty in this forecast is temperatures, as they
will be very close to the rain/sleet/snow cutoff. The split nature
of the upper pattern will prevent very cold air from filtering
south with 850-700mb temperatures anywhere from +2C to -3C. Much
of the cooling may come from evaporational processes which are
difficult to forecast a week out. Therefore will start the
p-type as rain into Friday mixing some snow in by Saturday and
Sunday. Since temperatures are so marginal for wintry precip, it
does not appear at this time there will be much opportunity for
significant accumulations but this will have to be closely
monitored over the next several days.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 34  69  37  70  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  71  38  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                30  64  36  73  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  70  42  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  69  41  75  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          35  62  41  61  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   32  68  36  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  65  37  65  /   0   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  69  37  71  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  69  38  71  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  68  35  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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608
FXUS64 KMAF 251728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue with northerly winds diminishing
through the day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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369
FXUS64 KMAF 251057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
continue shifting to the north this morning then to the northeast
this afternoon as a cold front comes through the area. Winds will
become light and variable this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer wx comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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073
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer ex comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  33  68  38  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  34  69  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  29  65  42  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  40  66  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  36  70  43  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  38  61  44  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   59  32  66  38  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  34  67  38  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  62  34  67  39  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    62  29  65  38  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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299
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc obs show a weak cold front to the north of the region, w/buffer
soundings bringing fropa to KMAF at around 10Z.  Otherwise, a
relatively warm night is on tap in modest westerly flow under a
fetch of high clouds streaming in from the west.  Further west, WV
imagery shows a massive cut-off low separated from upper-lvl flow
and parked off the coast of Baja.  In between this trough and NW
flow to the east, models develop a highly-amped ridge over West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico over the next few days.  This feature is
forecast to build east and flatten into midweek as the upper trough
shears out as it moves NE back into the jetstream.  As the trough
shears, it is forecast to send a shortwave thru the western zones
Monday night, for a slight chance of showers there.  Upper ridging
will allow for a brief respite from the cold temps of late.  By
Tuesday, temps will top out in the low 70s for much of the region,
making it feel more like early May than late January.

Unfortunately, this warmer wx comes to an end late Wednesday night
as the aforementioned upper trough dives into the MS Valley, and
drops a cold front into the region Thursday.  Temps should still
stay abv-normal Thursday afternoon, but drop blo normal Friday and
Saturday.  During this time, another trough will separate from the
flow off the west coast near Baja.  This feature is a little further
NE than the current one, and likely to result in increased chances
of precip for the FA as it sends shortwaves thru SW flow aloft
beginning late Thursday.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar
w/placement of the trough off the coast of Baja, while the DGEX
wants to take it to srn CA/AZ.  Models bring in considerable
mid/hi-lvl moisture from the SW, while return flow pumps sfc
dewpoints to near 40F by Friday night.  PWATs at KMAF increase to
over 1" by 00Z Saturday...over 3 std devs abv normal and abv the
99th percentile, so the potential to score some decent rainfall
will be there.  Attm, forecast soundings suggest precip will fall as
rain, as lower lvls stay abv freezing deep enough to melt any ice in
the column.  The only exception might be the extreme N/NW, which may
see a mix Friday night.  Chances for frozen precip look better
Saturday night, but that is beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  33  68  38  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  34  69  37  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  29  65  42  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  40  66  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  36  70  43  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  38  61  44  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   59  32  66  38  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  34  67  38  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  62  34  67  39  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    62  29  65  38  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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