Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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273
FXUS64 KMAF 272235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings suggest a cu field developing by late Fri morning
everywhere but KMAF, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Best chances for
convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an
upper-lvl trough enters SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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