Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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113
FXUS64 KMAF 282306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through 04z for most
terminals. There may be some isolated MVFR conditions in the
heavier storm cores; otherwise, VFR conditions are mostly
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become variable this
evening, with some gusts near the storms, and will mostly be out
of the east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
024
FXUS64 KMAF 281841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  90  69  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  93  67  95  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71 101  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  95  69  97  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  83  66  87  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       66  88  65  92  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  85  56  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  94  69  96  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      72  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72  96  68  98  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/29
944
FXUS64 KMAF 281724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. May see some
afternoon storms especially near CNM and HOB. Wind will remain
southerly at most locations.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
133
FXUS64 KMAF 281128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mid level cumulus
will develop this afternoon with -SHRA/TS possible at most TAF
sites though only confident to make mention at CNM and HOB at this
time. Convection will be more isolated south and east of New
Mexico. TS will dissipate by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
979
FXUS64 KMAF 280827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  96  70  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  70  94  65  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  72 100  72  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  70  94  69  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  88  66  /  20  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                       91  66  90  64  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                       89  59  85  57  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  71  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      96  72  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                       100  69  97  68  /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12
254
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this TAF period. A trough will cause TS to develop
mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z.
TS could develop farther south but will leave out of other TAF
sites for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
273
FXUS64 KMAF 272235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings suggest a cu field developing by late Fri morning
everywhere but KMAF, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Best chances for
convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an
upper-lvl trough enters SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
417
FXUS64 KMAF 272108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  97  70  96  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                      73 102  72 100  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  99  70  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  89  66  88  /  10  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                       67  92  66  91  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                       57  89  59  86  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  71  98  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  72  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72 100  69  99  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70
904
FXUS64 KMAF 271739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
864
FXUS64 KMAF 271043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
590
FXUS64 KMAF 270810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
641
FXUS64 KMAF 270429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

Area radars show convection has developed along a boundary
sinking south thru the lwr Trans Pecos, and we`ll do an update to
account for this. We`ll also update other parameters as necessary
based on current obs and short-term models. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low order
PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains after
00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look for a
quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, and
light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
321
FXUS64 KMAF 270025
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection has developed along a boundary
sinking south thru the lwr Trans Pecos, and we`ll do an update to
account for this. We`ll also update other parameters as necessary
based on current obs and short-term models. Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low
order PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
after 00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look
for a quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear
skies, and light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  96  72  97  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    66  95  69  96  /  10   0  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 101  73 102  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  98  72  98  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  67  89  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       64  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                       57  88  58  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  72  99  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  97  73  98  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        71 100  72 101  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44
799
FXUS64 KMAF 262344
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low
order PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
after 00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look
for a quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear
skies, and light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
870
FXUS64 KMAF 261926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low
order PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
after 00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look
for a quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear
skies, and light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  96  72  97  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  69  96  /  10   0  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      73 101  73 102  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  98  72  98  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  67  89  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                       67  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                       57  88  58  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        70  99  72  99  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  97  73  98  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        71 100  72 101  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70
137
FXUS64 KMAF 261726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VRF conditions will prevail the next 24 hours with southeasterly
winds generally between at 5-10 kts. A few scattered
thunderstorms possible for the higher terrain areas, but expected
to stay away from all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Looks like a couple of quiet weather days through Thursday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure dominates. The possible
exception will be the Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains during the
afternoon and evenings due to upslope flow amidst intense heating
of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue to be
above normal this afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

For Friday a weak boundary is forecast to track southeast from
New Mexico and stall near a Snyder to Midland to Valentine line
by Friday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms look
possible northwest of this line Friday afternoon and Friday night
where cooler air aloft will reside. Any Activity does not look to
be very expansive with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures
should remain well above normal Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look mainly quiet again as the boundary
weakens. There still could be some isolated diurnal storms
in and near the mountains with marginally unstable upslope flow
in place.

Next Monday through Wednesday looks dry due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level disturbance from south Texas. Temperatures early
next week are expected to be slightly above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
173
FXUS64 KMAF 261043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals during the
next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which develop this afternoon and
evening will likely stay south and west of all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Looks like a couple of quiet weather days through Thursday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure dominates. The possible
exception will be the Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains during the
afternoon and evenings due to upslope flow amidst intense heating
of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue to be
above normal this afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

For Friday a weak boundary is forecast to track southeast from
New Mexico and stall near a Snyder to Midland to Valentine line
by Friday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms look
possible northwest of this line Friday afternoon and Friday night
where cooler air aloft will reside. Any Activity does not look to
be very expansive with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures
should remain well above normal Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look mainly quiet again as the boundary
weakens. There still could be some isolated diurnal storms
in and near the mountains with marginally unstable upslope flow
in place.

Next Monday through Wednesday looks dry due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level disturbance from south Texas. Temperatures early
next week are expected to be slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  71  97  73  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    96  66  95  69  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     102  72 101  73  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  97  72  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  66  89  69  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       94  66  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       90  58  89  59  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  70  98  72  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                      97  71  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                       100  71 100  72  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
671
FXUS64 KMAF 260815
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
315 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a couple of quiet weather days through Thursday as an
upper level ridge of high pressure dominates. The possible
exception will be the Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains during the
afternoon and evenings due to upslope flow amidst intense heating
of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue to be
above normal this afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

For Friday a weak boundary is forecast to track southeast from
New Mexico and stall near a Snyder to Midland to Valentine line
by Friday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms look
possible northwest of this line Friday afternoon and Friday night
where cooler air aloft will reside. Any Activity does not look to
be very expansive with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures
should remain well above normal Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look mainly quiet again as the boundary
weakens. There still could be some isolated diurnal storms
in and near the mountains with marginally unstable upslope flow
in place.

Next Monday through Wednesday looks dry due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level disturbance from south Texas. Temperatures early
next week are expected to be slightly above normal.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  71  97  73  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    96  66  95  69  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     102  72 101  73  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  97  72  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  66  89  69  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       94  66  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       90  58  89  59  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  70  98  72  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                      97  71  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                       100  71 100  72  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
376
FXUS64 KMAF 260452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cluster of thunderstorms moving southwestward over the Permian
Basin should continue to weaken, so will monitor to see whether to
add TSRA to KMAF.  Gusty northeasterly winds will spread across KMAF
ahead of the convection, but winds should die down within an hour or
so.  Otherwise, southeasterly surface winds around 10kt will
accompany VFR conditions areawide during the next 24 hours.  It
appears isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will likely not
affect any area terminals.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
698
FXUS64 KMAF 260254
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show a cluster of cells moving SW thru the Wrn Low
Rolling Plains. This should diminish short of Midland. We`ve done
an update to expand areal coverage in the grids to account for
this.  Updates have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms have remained east of area TAF sites, and are
expected to gradually diminish through the evening. Aside from
perhaps a weak outflow boundary or two affecting KFST or KMAF,
no impacts are expected from these storms. VFR conditions with
generally light southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  73  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  67  95  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      73 101  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       68  93  67  93  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       58  89  59  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  96  71  98  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      72  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                        72  99  72 100  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44
839
FXUS64 KMAF 252331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms have remained east of area TAF sites, and are
expected to gradually diminish through the evening. Aside from
perhaps a weak outflow boundary or two affecting KFST or KMAF,
no impacts are expected from these storms. VFR conditions with
generally light southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
324
FXUS64 KMAF 251947
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  73  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  67  95  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      73 101  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       68  93  67  93  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       58  89  59  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  96  71  98  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      72  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                        72  99  72 100  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/70
273
FXUS64 KMAF 251721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast wind this TAF period. Isolated
TS will develop this afternoon mainly near MAF and FST, however
coverage will not be great enough to place TS in any FM groups at
this time and will handle with AMD as needed.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

Intense heating along a Weak surface boundary near the Pecos
River will be the focus for potential thunderstorm development
this afternoon and this evening. Looking for the best chance
across the eastern Permian Basin where low level convergence and
moisture will be maximized. More isolated activity is expected
across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the mountains due
to a marginally unstable upslope flow regime. Expecting activity
to die this evening with loss of heating.

Beyond today looking for above normal temperatures and mainly
quiet weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Did mention isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening in portions of the
mountains and or southeast New Mexico Plains these days in upslope
flow.

For Friday and Saturday another weak boundary could trigger
isolated thunderstorms across the northern Permian Basin and
the mountains. Any Activity does not look to be very expansive
with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures should remain
well above normal these days.

For Sunday and next Monday north to northeasterly flow aloft
is expected to prevail around the upper ridge that is forecast
to reside in the Rockies and western high plains. Another weak
surface boundary and upslope flow could generate some isolated
convection in portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
but will not mention this far out. Will continue to monitor. High
temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees but still remain
above normal these days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
360
FXUS64 KMAF 251044
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms
will be possible, especially this afternoon, but probabilities are
too low to include in the current issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

Intense heating along a Weak surface boundary near the Pecos
River will be the focus for potential thunderstorm development
this afternoon and this evening. Looking for the best chance
across the eastern Permian Basin where low level convergence and
moisture will be maximized. More isolated activity is expected
across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the mountains due
to a marginally unstable upslope flow regime. Expecting activity
to die this evening with loss of heating.

Beyond today looking for above normal temperatures and mainly
quiet weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Did mention isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening in portions of the
mountains and or southeast New Mexico Plains these days in upslope
flow.

For Friday and Saturday another weak boundary could trigger
isolated thunderstorms across the northern Permian Basin and
the mountains. Any Activity does not look to be very expansive
with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures should remain
well above normal these days.

For Sunday and next Monday north to northeasterly flow aloft
is expected to prevail around the upper ridge that is forecast
to reside in the Rockies and western high plains. Another weak
surface boundary and upslope flow could generate some isolated
convection in portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
but will not mention this far out. Will continue to monitor. High
temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees but still remain
above normal these days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  71  96  72  /  30  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    94  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      99  73 101  73  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  71  95  71  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  67  90  67  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       92  68  91  68  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  88  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        94  71  95  71  /  20  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                      94  72  95  73  /  20  20   0   0
WINK TX                        96  73  97  72  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
382
FXUS64 KMAF 250828
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Intense heating along a Weak surface boundary near the Pecos
River will be the focus for potential thunderstorm development
this afternoon and this evening. Looking for the best chance
across the eastern Permian Basin where low level convergence and
moisture will be maximized. More isolated activity is expected
across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the mountains due
to a marginally unstable upslope flow regime. Expecting activity
to die this evening with loss of heating.

Beyond today looking for above normal temperatures and mainly
quiet weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Did mention isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening in portions of the
mountains and or southeast New Mexico Plains these days in upslope
flow.

For Friday and Saturday another weak boundary could trigger
isolated thunderstorms across the northern Permian Basin and
the mountains. Any Activity does not look to be very expansive
with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures should remain
well above normal these days.

For Sunday and next Monday north to northeasterly flow aloft
is expected to prevail around the upper ridge that is forecast
to reside in the Rockies and western high plains. Another weak
surface boundary and upslope flow could generate some isolated
convection in portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
but will not mention this far out. Will continue to monitor. High
temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees but still remain
above normal these days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  71  96  72  /  30  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    94  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      99  73 101  73  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  71  95  71  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  67  90  67  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       92  68  91  68  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  88  60  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        94  71  95  71  /  20  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                      94  72  95  73  /  20  20   0   0
WINK TX                        96  73  97  72  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
768
FXUS64 KMAF 250502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through tonight, and Tuesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible, especially Tuesday afternoon, but
probabilities are too low to include in the current issuance.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
164
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...As of 6:00 PM CDT Monday...there are mainly scattered
thunderstorms along and south of I-20 this early evening. The
storms are in a weak steering regime...mostly oriented along old
outflow boundaries. As of now...do not think any of the Aviation
sites will be affected by storms. One cell is southwest of KPEQ
and is weakening as it moves NNW. Another cell is south of KINK
and is moving very slowly. Will continue to monitor.

Strobin
&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33
428
FXUS64 KMAF 241926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite shows an enhanced cumulus field
developing along the remnants of the cold front that moved into
the CWA yesterday. Isolated storms are developing in the southern
Permian Basin but most of the activity will be in the Davis
Mountains where moisture and orographics will combine for the
greatest instability. The hi-res models handled yesterday pretty
well so have confidence in precipitation in the higher elevations
today and have adjusted PoPs up accordingly. Cell motion will be
slow so there will be a chance for localized flash flooding from
these storms. Convective activity will not last long into the
evening as the boundary layer quickly stabilizes, the only
exceptions would be isolated outflow boundary interactions.

An upper high will build over eastern New Mexico the remainder of
the week, causing temperatures to increase and decreasing rain
chances. Decreased temperatures slightly tomorrow due to the
cooling effects of recent rains but the ground should be dry by
Wednesday sending high temperatures back well above normal for
this time of year.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  95  71  97  /  10  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  94  70  96  /  30  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      73  97  73  99  /  10  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               69  95  71  96  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  86  68  89  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                       67  92  69  93  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       61  88  62  89  /  20   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        70  94  71  97  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                      71  94  72  96  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                        71  96  73  98  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10
674
FXUS64 KMAF 241830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 24/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through 25/18Z.
Beginning to see signs of convective development over the Davis
Mountains south across the Marfa Plateau and much of Brewster
County. Isolated TSRA is possible just about anywhere today, but
confidence is sufficiently low to preclude mention of TSRA at any
one terminal. Shortly after sunset, isolated thunderstorm
development will wane, leaving the area with a bit of convective
debris aloft and light and variable winds at the surface.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Latest mesoanalysis suggests an area of convergence and fronto-
genesis along I-10 roughly centered around KFST. In addition,
surface theta analyses indicate something resembling a baroclinic
zone extending from the Davis Mountains east-northeastward to
north central Texas. We do see a weak core west of SH 118 south
of Kent and MOGR CU over much of southwest TX extending northeast
into the southern Permian Basin.

There`s plenty of moisture around with surface Tds in the lower
60s, with localized higher amounts where it rained yesterday.
Precipitable water values are running around 1.5. There`s a bit of
instability to be had, but mid level lapse rates are anemic and
wind shear is pretty much nonexistent. As a result, low-level cold
pools will play a critical role in secondary CI and upscale
growth. The last series of HRRR runs are optimistic about
scattered TSRA across the southern Permian Basin while the NSSL
WRF and TTU WRF are less optimistic. Right now I`m leaning more
toward the less optimistic side, but wouldn`t be surprised to see
CI somewhere in the southern Basin by 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
994
FXUS64 KMAF 241121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
036
FXUS64 KMAF 240900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  73  95  72  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                    89  70  94  71  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      97  75  97  75  /  20   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  70  96  70  /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              84  68  88  68  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                       88  69  92  68  /  20  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       87  57  85  57  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        92  73  95  72  /  20  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      91  72  95  73  /  20  10  10   0
WINK TX                        93  72  96  73  /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44
821
FXUS64 KMAF 240516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A few lingering
showers may persist for a little bit longer at MAF. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will be light and somewhat variable during the overnight
hours and will generally be from the east to southeast Monday
during the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Have updated the forecast to increase PoPs across the Permian
Basin and far southeast New Mexico through this evening based on
current radar trends and latest high-resolution model data. Have
also included mention of heavy rainfall, with the greatest
likelihood across the central Permian Basin, especially in areas
where a combination of slow storm motion and cell training occurs.
Heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding problems.
Updated products out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

Current observations show the cold front is right about where it
was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to
Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into
southeast New Mexico. A broken line of convection is now
developing along the front from Colorado City to Odessa. The fine
resolution models are showing this convection, along with storms
developing in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, increasing in
coverage and providing decent rainfall amounts across the area
through midnight tonight before diminishing. The more course
resolution models (40km and greater) do not show as much coverage
or precipitation amounts which provided some uncertainty in this
forecast package. Obs show a local maximum of dewpoints along the
front better depicted by the more unstable hi-res models so
hopefully we will continue to see an expansion in precip coverage.
The main factor potentially limiting convection will be the
increase in cloud cover decreasing insolation and counteracting
the destabilizing effects of the surface moisture.

Storms will diminish later tonight but more will develop tomorrow
afternoon along the remnants of the lifting front. Convection will
be much more isolated due to less wind and moisture convergence.
The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we
are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New
Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will steadily climb through
the week to well above normal levels and rain chances will greatly
diminish.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
428
FXUS64 KMAF 232354
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
654 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...

Have updated the forecast to increase PoPs across the Permian
Basin and far southeast New Mexico through this evening based on
current radar trends and latest high-resolution model data. Have
also included mention of heavy rainfall, with the greatest
likelihood across the central Permian Basin, especially in areas
where a combination of slow storm motion and cell training occurs.
Heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding problems.
Updated products out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue until at least 24/05Z, and will carry
TSRA, MVFR visibility, and variable, gusty winds at most area
terminals during this time.  Lower ceilings could form, but think
these will be in the low VFR range. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
through Monday thereafter.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

Current observations show the cold front is right about where it
was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to
Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into
southeast New Mexico. A broken line of convection is now
developing along the front from Colorado City to Odessa. The fine
resolution models are showing this convection, along with storms
developing in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, increasing in
coverage and providing decent rainfall amounts across the area
through midnight tonight before diminishing. The more course
resolution models (40km and greater) do not show as much coverage
or precipitation amounts which provided some uncertainty in this
forecast package. Obs show a local maximum of dewpoints along the
front better depicted by the more unstable hi-res models so
hopefully we will continue to see an expansion in precip coverage.
The main factor potentially limiting convection will be the
increase in cloud cover decreasing insolation and counteracting
the destabilizing effects of the surface moisture.

Storms will diminish later tonight but more will develop tomorrow
afternoon along the remnants of the lifting front. Convection will
be much more isolated due to less wind and moisture convergence.
The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we
are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New
Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will steadily climb through
the week to well above normal levels and rain chances will greatly
diminish.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  91  72  96  /  50  20  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    67  91  68  93  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      74  97  73  96  /  10  20   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  94  70  94  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  67  84  /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       65  87  67  92  /  40  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       62  87  61  86  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  92  70  95  /  50  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      69  91  71  95  /  50  20  10  10
WINK TX                        70  95  71  96  /  50  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
951
FXUS64 KMAF 232253
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue until at least 24/05Z, and will carry
TSRA, MVFR visibility, and variable, gusty winds at most area
terminals during this time.  Lower ceilings could form, but think
these will be in the low VFR range. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
through Monday thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

Current observations show the cold front is right about where it
was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to
Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into
southeast New Mexico. A broken line of convection is now
developing along the front from Colorado City to Odessa. The fine
resolution models are showing this convection, along with storms
developing in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, increasing in
coverage and providing decent rainfall amounts across the area
through midnight tonight before diminishing. The more course
resolution models (40km and greater) do not show as much coverage
or precipitation amounts which provided some uncertainty in this
forecast package. Obs show a local maximum of dewpoints along the
front better depicted by the more unstable hi-res models so
hopefully we will continue to see an expansion in precip coverage.
The main factor potentially limiting convection will be the
increase in cloud cover decreasing insolation and counteracting
the destabilizing effects of the surface moisture.

Storms will diminish later tonight but more will develop tomorrow
afternoon along the remnants of the lifting front. Convection will
be much more isolated due to less wind and moisture convergence.
The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we
are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New
Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will steadily climb through
the week to well above normal levels and rain chances will greatly
diminish.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  91  72  96  /  30  20  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    67  91  68  93  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      74  97  73  96  /  10  20   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  94  70  94  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  67  84  /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       65  87  67  92  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       62  87  61  86  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  92  70  95  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      69  91  71  95  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                        70  95  71  96  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10
480
FXUS64 KMAF 231940
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Current observations show the cold front is right about where it
was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to
Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into
southeast New Mexico. A broken line of convection is now developng
along the front from Colorado City to Odessa. The fine resolution
models are showing this convection, along with storms developing
in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, increasing in coverage and
providing decent rainfall amounts across the area through midnight
tonight before diminishing. The more course resolution models
(40km and greater) do not show as much coverage or precipitation
amounts which provided some uncertainty in this forecast package.
Obs show a local maximum of dewpoints along the front better
depicted by the more unstable hi-res models so hopefully we will
continue to see an expansion in precip coverage. The main factor
potentially limiting convection will be the increase in cloud
cover decreasing insolation and counteracting the destabilizing
effects of the surface moisture.

Storms will diminish later tonight but more will develop tomorrow
afternoon along the remnants of the lifting front. Convection will
be much more isolated due to less wind and moisture convergence.
The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we
are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New
Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will steadily climb through
the week to well above normal levels and rain chances will greatly
diminish.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  91  72  96  /  30  20  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    67  91  68  93  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      74  97  73  96  /  10  20   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  94  70  94  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  67  84  /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       65  87  67  92  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       62  87  61  86  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  92  70  95  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      69  91  71  95  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                        70  95  71  96  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10
847
FXUS64 KMAF 231755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 23/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will for the most part prevail across all area
terminals through 24/18Z. A quasi-stationary cold front
(presently extending from about 20 S KGDP - KINK - Lamesa) will
serve as the focus for scattered TSRA this afternoon, with
coverage extending into the evening as moist upglide commences
above this front after sunset. As such, have gone pessimistic at
KCNM, KHOB, and KINK where TEMPOs are warranted. MVFR visibility in
TSRA and wind gusts to 40 kts are possible at these locales.
Storms are firing over the Davis Mountains and may eventually
impact KFST during the late afternoon hours, with similar MVFR
visibility and wind gusts to 40 kts (maybe more here, depending on
how much heating occurs over the Pecos River valley). At this time
we don`t see a strong enough signal at KPEQ to introduce TEMPO
TSRA here, but will monitor. Less of a chance at KMAF, although a
few of the past HRRR runs indicate some spotty -SHRA/TSRA in the
late afternoon/evening hours over the Permian Basin. Bears watch.

Conditions will gradually improve around midnight local time, with
a lot of convective debris overhead. There are indications that
moist upslope on the east side of the Guadalupes/Delawares will
produce MVFR to IFR conditions toward daybreak Monday. Have kept
VFR conditions at KCNM and KPEQ and will await further data.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the area
especially for CNM and HOB. Light and variable winds will come
around to the north beginning this morning as a cold front moves
into the area around 15z. The strongest winds appear to be at CNM
and winds are expected to shift to the east this afternoon. Winds
will likely be variable with some gusts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending across the srn CONUS,
from SoCal to the Florida.  To the north, a trough was ejecting into
nrn MN.  Closer to home, sfc obs and area radars show a cold front
moving thru the Texas Panhandle, trailing the trough.  This feature
looks much weaker/shallower than last week`s front, w/only modest
pressure rises along the front.  Models differ somewhat on how far
it makes it into the FA, w/the NAM bringing it into mid-CWA, whereas
the GFS and ECMWF stall it a little further north.  Going w/the NAM,
it looks as though the front will stall diurnally this afternoon,
before retreating north just a little overnight as a 25-30kt LLJ
develops. This will be the main focus for convection, w/best chances
over SE NM along the front this afternoon.  If the GFS pans out, SE
NM could see significant rainfall.

Otherwise, thicknesses should bottom out Monday, but temps will
remain above-normal Monday afternoon before the ridge intensifies
over the SW CONUS later in the week, pushing temps once more into
the upper 90s most locations.  Unfortunately, models keep the theta-
e ridge to the west, affording little chances of rain in the
extended.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
852
FXUS64 KMAF 231126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the area
especially for CNM and HOB. Light and variable winds will come
around to the north beginning this morning as a cold front moves
into the area around 15z. The strongest winds appear to be at CNM
and winds are expected to shift to the east this afternoon. Winds
will likely be variable with some gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending across the srn CONUS,
from SoCal to the Florida.  To the north, a trough was ejecting into
nrn MN.  Closer to home, sfc obs and area radars show a cold front
moving thru the Texas Panhandle, trailing the trough.  This feature
looks much weaker/shallower than last week`s front, w/only modest
pressure rises along the front.  Models differ somewhat on how far
it makes it into the FA, w/the NAM bringing it into mid-CWA, whereas
the GFS and ECMWF stall it a little further north.  Going w/the NAM,
it looks as though the front will stall diurnally this afternoon,
before retreating north just a little overnight as a 25-30kt LLJ
develops. This will be the main focus for convection, w/best chances
over SE NM along the front this afternoon.  If the GFS pans out, SE
NM could see significant rainfall.

Otherwise, thicknesses should bottom out Monday, but temps will
remain above-normal Monday afternoon before the ridge intensifies
over the SW CONUS later in the week, pushing temps once more into
the upper 90s most locations.  Unfortunately, models keep the theta-
e ridge to the west, affording little chances of rain in the
extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
672
FXUS64 KMAF 230915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
415 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending across the srn CONUS,
from SoCal to the Florida.  To the north, a trough was ejecting into
nrn MN.  Closer to home, sfc obs and area radars show a cold front
moving thru the Texas Panhandle, trailing the trough.  This feature
looks much weaker/shallower than last week`s front, w/only modest
pressure rises along the front.  Models differ somewhat on how far
it makes it into the FA, w/the NAM bringing it into mid-CWA, whereas
the GFS and ECMWF stall it a little further north.  Going w/the NAM,
it looks as though the front will stall diurnally this afternoon,
before retreating north just a little overnight as a 25-30kt LLJ
develops. This will be the main focus for convection, w/best chances
over SE NM along the front this afternoon.  If the GFS pans out, SE
NM could see significant rainfall.

Otherwise, thicknesses should bottom out Monday, but temps will
remain above-normal Monday afternoon before the ridge intensifies
over the SW CONUS later in the week, pushing temps once more into
the upper 90s most locations.  Unfortunately, models keep the theta-
e ridge to the west, affording little chances of rain in the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  70  93  71  /  20  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    92  68  92  69  /  50  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     101  73 100  72  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  71  95  69  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  65  86  68  /  40  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                       87  64  88  67  /  40  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  84  61  /  20  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  71  94  70  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      97  72  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                       100  72  96  71  /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44
755
FXUS64 KMAF 230527
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the area but did
not include TSRA at this time due to uncertainty about location
and timing. Winds will mostly be out of the south overnight before
a cold front moves into the area beginning around 15z. The
strongest winds appear to be at CNM and winds are expected to
shift to the east in the afternoon. Winds will likely be variable
with some gusts.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

Thunderstorms are again developing in the Davis Mountains this
afternoon. The main difference between yesterday and today will be
the lack of convective development or movement into southeastern
New Mexico or the Permian Basin. Storms will diminish later this
evening as the loss of insolation increases boundary layer
stability.

Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern
Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20
corridor by the afternoon. Cooling from cold air advection will be
limited to southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin, with more modest cooling due to increased cloud coverage
farther south and east. The highest rain chances will be along the
front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely
scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels
for this forecast.

The front will lift north and undergo frontolysis beginning Monday
as an upper level high builds back over west Texas. This will end
rain chances for most areas though cannot rule out isolated
afternoon storms in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures will
once again climb into the upper 90s most locations but should
remain below 100 except in the valleys of the Pecos River and Rio
Grande.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
695
FXUS64 KMAF 222259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions at all area terminals through tonight and
Sunday.  Thunderstorms may affect the westernmost terminals this
evening, but probabilities are too low to include in the forecast.
A cold front will move south into the region Sunday morning.  KCNM
and KHOB will be affected most with gusty northerly winds before
the front slows to a halt by late Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

Thunderstorms are again developing in the Davis Mountains this
afternoon. The main difference between yesterday and today will be
the lack of convective development or movement into southeastern
New Mexico or the Permian Basin. Storms will diminish later this
evening as the loss of insolation increases boundary layer
stability.

Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern
Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20
corridor by the afternoon. Cooling from cold air advection will be
limited to southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin, with more modest cooling due to increased cloud coverage
farther south and east. The highest rain chances will be along the
front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely
scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels
for this forecast.

The front will lift north and undergo frontolysis beginning Monday
as an upper level high builds back over west Texas. This will end
rain chances for most areas though cannot rule out isolated
afternoon storms in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures will
once again climb into the upper 90s most locations but should
remain below 100 except in the valleys of the Pecos River and Rio
Grande.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  96  71  94  /  10  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                    70  91  67  94  /  30  40  30  10
DRYDEN TX                      75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  98  71  95  /  10  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  82  65  87  /  30  40  30  10
HOBBS NM                       69  89  66  90  /  20  40  30  20
MARFA TX                       62  90  60  88  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75  97  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                      75  95  70  94  /  10  30  30  20
WINK TX                        75  99  72  98  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10
437
FXUS64 KMAF 221929
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
229 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are again developing in the Davis Mountains this
afternoon. The main difference between yesterday and today will be
the lack of convective development or movement into southeastern
New Mexico or the Permian Basin. Storms will diminish later this
evening as the loss of insolation increases boundary layer
stability.

Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern
Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20
corridor by the afternoon. Cooling from cold air advection will be
limited to southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin, with more modest cooling due to increased cloud coverage
farther south and east. The highest rain chances will be along the
front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely
scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels
for this forecast.

The front will lift north and undergo frontolysis beginning Monday
as an upper level high builds back over west Texas. This will end
rain chances for most areas though cannot rule out isolated
afternoon storms in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures will
once again climb into the upper 90s most locations but should
remain below 100 except in the valleys of the Pecos River and Rio
Grande.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  96  71  94  /  10  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                    70  91  67  94  /  30  40  30  10
DRYDEN TX                      75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  98  71  95  /  10  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  82  65  87  /  30  40  30  10
HOBBS NM                       69  89  66  90  /  20  40  30  20
MARFA TX                       62  90  60  88  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75  97  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                      75  95  70  94  /  10  30  30  20
WINK TX                        75  99  72  98  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10
971
FXUS64 KMAF 221805
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through
23/18Z. A couple of flies in the ointment as there exists a
slight chance (maybe one in four) of TSRA affecting KFST between
22Z and 02Z, KPEQ and KINK from 23Z to 03Z, and KCNM and KHOB from
00Z to 03Z. KMAF looks to miss out this time. With large surface
T/Td spreads and high cloud bases, gusty winds and frequent
lightning INVOF any TSRA is likely. However, right now our
confidence is sufficiently low to include TSRA in these TAFs until
the convective initiation and trends are better defined.

Toward daybreak Sunday, a decent cold front looks to enter
southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin of west
Texas. How far south will the boundary go...and with it a wind
shift to the north or northeast and an uptick in speed...is
another question. Feel confident it will pass through KCNM, KHOB,
KINK, and KPEQ to some degree. However the front might stall north
of KMAF and not get to KFST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Area radars show earlier convection has all but died out, w/only a
few -shra left in the area. A few low clouds could develop near
KMAF near sunrise, but buffer soundings keep them VFR. Otherwise,
today looks similar to Friday, w/cu bases 4.5-9 kft agl and more
convection possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, a few remaining showers are moving across the area.
Temperatures are staying on the warm side this morning with mostly
cloudy skies overhead. Expect high temperatures today to be in the
upper 90s and triple digits for most of the area. There is an
upper trough over the Northern Plains which is helping to suppress
the upper ridge over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across mainly the higher
terrain and surrounding plains. Good CAPE values will be across
the area and an area of enhanced omega will be over the higher
terrain, so some of the storms that develop this afternoon and
evening could be strong.

As the upper trough over the Northern Plains moves eastward, it
will send a cold front southward towards the CWA on Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across the higher
terrain, and storm chances will increase across southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin as the front approaches. Temperatures
on Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today. The
front does not appear to be very strong but it will result in
temperatures cooling to around normal values on Monday. Rain
chances will taper off Monday and Monday night as the upper ridge
once again begins to build over the region. Temperatures will warm
up after Monday into the mid to upper 90s across the Permian
Basin. Conditions will be mostly dry mid to late next week with
the upper ridge building over the western half of the conus.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
703
FXUS64 KMAF 221000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show earlier convection has all but died out, w/only a
few -shra left in the area. A few low clouds could develop near
KMAF near sunrise, but buffer soundings keep them VFR. Otherwise,
today looks similar to Friday, w/cu bases 4.5-9 kft agl and more
convection possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, a few remaining showers are moving across the area.
Temperatures are staying on the warm side this morning with mostly
cloudy skies overhead. Expect high temperatures today to be in the
upper 90s and triple digits for most of the area. There is an
upper trough over the Northern Plains which is helping to suppress
the upper ridge over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across mainly the higher
terrain and surrounding plains. Good CAPE values will be across
the area and an area of enhanced omega will be over the higher
terrain, so some of the storms that develop this afternoon and
evening could be strong.

As the upper trough over the Northern Plains moves eastward, it
will send a cold front southward towards the CWA on Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across the higher
terrain, and storm chances will increase across southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin as the front approaches. Temperatures
on Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today. The
front does not appear to be very strong but it will result in
temperatures cooling to around normal values on Monday. Rain
chances will taper off Monday and Monday night as the upper ridge
once again begins to build over the region. Temperatures will warm
up after Monday into the mid to upper 90s across the Permian
Basin. Conditions will be mostly dry mid to late next week with
the upper ridge building over the western half of the conus.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
713
FXUS64 KMAF 220937
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
437 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, a few remaining showers are moving across the area.
Temperatures are staying on the warm side this morning with mostly
cloudy skies overhead. Expect high temperatures today to be in the
upper 90s and triple digits for most of the area. There is an
upper trough over the Northern Plains which is helping to suppress
the upper ridge over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across mainly the higher
terrain and surrounding plains. Good CAPE values will be across
the area and an area of enhanced omega will be over the higher
terrain, so some of the storms that develop this afternoon and
evening could be strong.

As the upper trough over the Northern Plains moves eastward, it
will send a cold front southward towards the CWA on Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible across the higher
terrain, and storm chances will increase across southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin as the front approaches. Temperatures
on Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today. The
front does not appear to be very strong but it will result in
temperatures cooling to around normal values on Monday. Rain
chances will taper off Monday and Monday night as the upper ridge
once again begins to build over the region. Temperatures will warm
up after Monday into the mid to upper 90s across the Permian
Basin. Conditions will be mostly dry mid to late next week with
the upper ridge building over the western half of the conus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  74  94  69  /  10  10  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                   100  71  87  67  /  20  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  75  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              101  73  97  70  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              95  66  82  65  /  20  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       98  69  85  65  /  20  30  40  30
MARFA TX                       90  63  87  62  /  40  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  74  96  68  /  10  10  20  30
ODESSA TX                      99  75  95  68  /  20  10  30  30
WINK TX                       103  74  98  70  /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80
723
FXUS64 KMAF 220512
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show a line of convection extending from the South
Plains to the Diablo Plateau, courtesy of an upper trough moving
thru Texas. This activity is slowly diminishing w/cooling, and the
LLJ is much weaker tonight, so only terminal affected should be
KHOB. A few low clouds could develop near KMAF near sunrise, but
buffer soundings keep them VFR. Otherwise, Saturday looks similar
to Friday, w/cu bases 5-8 kft agl and more convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 858 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

UPDATE...
Increasing chance of thunderstorms over the Permian Basin,
particularly northwestern parts.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-evening, a complex of thunderstorms was pushing out of
southeast New Mexico and the southern plains into the northern
Permian Basin. Some of these storms have produced damaging wind
gusts. Moderate instability and shear exist in advance of this
system as it pushes southeast ahead of a weak shortwave. Aided by
mid-evening low level jet, storms should be sustained through late
evening and possibly beyond midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Will carry VFR conditions at all area terminals, for the most part.
Thunderstorms will be possible overnight, but probabilities are not
very high for any given location.  For now, will include TSRA at
KFST, and update accordingly at the rest of the terminals.  Gusty
winds of 30 to 40kt will be possible with any storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

Current satellite shows cumulus forming in the Davis Mountains but
the radar shows there is little vertical development at this time.
Continued surface heating will cause isolated to widely scattered
TS to form later this afternoon and evening with perhaps some
isolated storms developing along a weak surface trough in
southeastern New Mexico. Models are showing a convective complex
rolling south out of the panhandle and south plains tonight which
may affect the northern Permian Basin before dissipating,
therefore have the highest PoPs tonight from the Davis Mountains
north into southeast New Mexico and east towards Snyder with lower
Pops to the south and east.

An upper ridge will begin to reassert itself tomorrow with highs
near 100 for most locations. Fortunately we are beginning to get
into that time of year when amplifying ridges to our west dislodge
cooler air from the north and send a cold front our way and that
will happen Sunday into Monday with cooler temperatures expected
as well as an increase in rain chances, especially along the
frontal boundary. Then, in a manner often seen during the past
month, the upper ridge will drift slight east ending rain chances
by the middle of next week and sending highs back above normal for
the latter half of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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