Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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558
FXUS64 KMAF 300818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
318 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging looks to develop overhead today and with modest
southwest winds returning at the surface, a considerable warmup is
expected today with highs generally in the 80s. Southwest flow will
quickly develop Friday just ahead of our next storm system.
Southwest winds will increase at the surface as this system
approaches and high temperatures look to push 90 across many areas.
High winds are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and a High Wind
Watch remains for this area. In addition, could see sustained winds
reach Advisory criteria across the adjacent plains of Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas. Otherwise, critically low dew points and
gusty winds Friday may cause some problems for fire weather through
the afternoon hours. Please see the fire weather discussion below
for more details.

As southwest winds dominate the region today and tomorrow, don`t see
much in the way for moisture return. However, there may be a brief
window for a bit of moisture to creep into the far eastern zones
Friday evening as the dryline moves west ever so slightly. We could
have some weak upper forcing available from the approaching upper
low so there may be potential for one or two late night
thunderstorms. For now, confidence is too low to mention in the
forecast but will continue to monitor the possibility. Saturday
morning, a Pacific front will quickly sweep east through the region,
shunting any moisture to the east and bringing slightly cooler air
to the CWA. Sunday will be cooler still as a cold front pushes south
late Saturday night. A few models show a little bit of moisture
returning across eastern zones ahead of the front with precip
developing as the front moves through Sunday.

Beyond this weekend, southwest winds are quick to return at the
surface under a brief period of upper ridging. As a result, warm and
dry conditions can be expected. Otherwise, another upper low looks
to swing through the Central Plains Tuesday bringing windy
conditions back to the region Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
One upper level low leaves and another approaches causing the fire
weather threat to increase once again. Strong winds ahead of the
low will cause Critical fire weather conditions in the Guadalupe
Mountains today which will spread east on Friday afternoon. Have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains today
into a Red Flag Warning and expanded the Fire Weather Watch on
Friday east to encompass Dawson, Gaines, and Andrews counties.
Winds will diminish some on Saturday as the low moves overhead,
decreasing the fire weather threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  53  88  54 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       84  50  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 73  52  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  37  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  53  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         82  53  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           84  50  89  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/27