Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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357
FXUS64 KMAF 211122
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to include fog into the Upper Trans Pecos and northwest
Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture continues to spread northwestward into the area
this morning, with patchy fog resulting due to lowering temperature/
dewpoint spread.  A few locations will have visibility drop to 1/4
mile, but this dense fog will not be widespread enough for a Dense
Fog Advisory.  Will update the forecast to add fog further west into
the Upper Trans Pecos, and northwestward into the northwest Permian
Basin.  Think the fog/low cloud deck will begin to lift around
21/16Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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264
FXUS64 KMAF 211106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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293
FXUS64 KMAF 210953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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541
FXUS64 KMAF 210442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1032 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and variable tonight into tomorrow morning
before coming around to the south to southeast Friday afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings and visibilities around 12z
for MAF but do not have much confidence in this so took it out of
the TAF for now.  Low ceilings and visibilities will again be
possible areawide beginning around 03z Saturday as low-level
moisture increases.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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722
FXUS64 KMAF 202315
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and somewhat variable through the overnight
period into tomorrow morning.  South to southeast winds will prevail
Friday afternoon.  There is a slight chance of low ceilings and
visibilities for MAF during the overnight period into Friday
morning.  Added in a TEMPO group for now but the time of low
ceilings/visibilities may need to be earlier based on some of the
model data.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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411
FXUS64 KMAF 202053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  68  48  66  /   0  10  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              41  69  53  67  /   0  10  60  70
CARLSBAD NM                35  71  43  71  /   0   0  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  71  53  75  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           44  73  49  71  /   0   0  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  66  43  60  /   0   0  30  10
HOBBS NM                   34  67  44  66  /   0   0  30  30
MARFA TX                   30  68  34  63  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  70  52  67  /   0  10  50  50
ODESSA TX                  39  69  52  68  /   0  10  50  50
WINK TX                    39  73  47  71  /   0   0  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/84

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451
FXUS64 KMAF 201730
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1130 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Surface trough over the area will result in a W to SW wind
for local TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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772
FXUS64 KMAF 201107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings over west central Texas should stay east of all west
Texas terminals this morning.  Therefore, VFR conditions will
prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  36  68  45  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  40  68  50  /   0   0  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                68  34  69  41  /   0   0   0  30
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  73  53  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  43  73  48  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  42  66  40  /   0   0   0  30
HOBBS NM                   67  33  66  42  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   67  29  68  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  37  70  48  /   0   0   0  50
ODESSA TX                  69  39  70  48  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    72  39  73  46  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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250
FXUS64 KMAF 201014
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  36  68  45  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  40  68  50  /   0   0  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                68  34  69  41  /   0   0   0  30
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  73  53  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  43  73  48  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  42  66  40  /   0   0   0  30
HOBBS NM                   67  33  66  42  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   67  29  68  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  37  70  48  /   0   0   0  50
ODESSA TX                  69  39  70  48  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    72  39  73  46  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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265
FXUS64 KMAF 200413
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1013 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/light S-SW sfc flow.
NAM Buffer soundings still persistent in developing a VLIFR stratus
deck at KPEQ for a few hours around sunrise but, absent this in any
other models, we`ll leave things SCT attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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115
FXUS64 KMAF 192231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/sfc flow veering
slightly to SW most terminals. NAM Buffer soundings develop a
VLIFR stratus deck at KPEQ for a few hours around sunrise, but
this is absent in other models, so we won`t take the bait attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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066
FXUS64 KMAF 192052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  69  36  65  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  70  40  65  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                33  68  36  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  74  43  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  63  42  63  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  67  33  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  67  30  65  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  70  37  67  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  69  39  67  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    35  72  39  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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893
FXUS64 KMAF 191658
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1058 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Quiescent and dry conditions will prevail the next couple of days as
the flow aloft over the region becomes more zonal, and the cold
airmass over the area exits eastward under this regime.  Think the
gradual warmup will continue today, but be tempered somewhat by an
increase in high clouds.  However on Thursday, less cloud cover will
conspire with a developing surface trough developing south into the
area to vault temperatures a few degrees above normal, so have
tended readings toward the warmer guidance.  A weak cold front could
ease southward into the area Thursday night/Friday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west, but think increasing cloud cover
will have more of an effect on high temps Friday afternoon than the
front.  Regardless of whether the front enters the forecast area or
not, it appears low level moisture will begin to increase over the
area Friday and Friday night.

As the aforementioned upper trough moves over the region Friday
night, expect convection to break out, but mainly over the
northeastern half or so of the forecast area.  Instability will be
limited, but still think there could be a few storms capable of
producing hail as mid level lapse rates will be 7.5 to 8 C/Km.
Therefore, will continue to mention gusty winds, hail and frequent
lightning strikes in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  Precipitation
should shift east of the region Saturday morning, but will keep
chance PoPs going Saturday morning over extreme eastern portions of
the Permian Basin.

Temperatures will be a little milder than normal on Saturday and
Sunday morning, while high temperatures will be seasonal.  That is,
until another cold front moves through the area Sunday night
Monday.  Expect temperatures to remain a little below normal through
mid next week.  Rain chance will be negligible through the extended
forecast after Saturday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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224
FXUS64 KMAF 191121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies.  Winds will generally less than 10 knots through the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Quiescent and dry conditions will prevail the next couple of days as
the flow aloft over the region becomes more zonal, and the cold
airmass over the area exits eastward under this regime.  Think the
gradual warmup will continue today, but be tempered somewhat by an
increase in high clouds.  However on Thursday, less cloud cover will
conspire with a developing surface trough developing south into the
area to vault temperatures a few degrees above normal, so have
tended readings toward the warmer guidance.  A weak cold front could
ease southward into the area Thursday night/Friday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west, but think increasing cloud cover
will have more of an effect on high temps Friday afternoon than the
front.  Regardless of whether the front enters the forecast area or
not, it appears low level moisture will begin to increase over the
area Friday and Friday night.

As the aforementioned upper trough moves over the region Friday
night, expect convection to break out, but mainly over the
northeastern half or so of the forecast area.  Instability will be
limited, but still think there could be a few storms capable of
producing hail as mid level lapse rates will be 7.5 to 8 C/Km.
Therefore, will continue to mention gusty winds, hail and frequent
lightning strikes in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  Precipitation
should shift east of the region Saturday morning, but will keep
chance PoPs going Saturday morning over extreme eastern portions of
the Permian Basin.

Temperatures will be a little milder than normal on Saturday and
Sunday morning, while high temperatures will be seasonal.  That is,
until another cold front moves through the area Sunday night
Monday.  Expect temperatures to remain a little below normal through
mid next week.  Rain chance will be negligible through the extended
forecast after Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  35  69  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              64  39  71  41  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  32  68  35  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  40  69  47  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  42  75  43  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  38  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  30  67  32  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   61  25  67  31  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  38  71  39  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  62  39  70  39  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    65  34  73  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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789
FXUS64 KMAF 190916
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Quiescent and dry conditions will prevail the next couple of days as
the flow aloft over the region becomes more zonal, and the cold
airmass over the area exits eastward under this regime.  Think the
gradual warmup will continue today, but be tempered somewhat by an
increase in high clouds.  However on Thursday, less cloud cover will
conspire with a developing surface trough developing south into the
area to vault temperatures a few degrees above normal, so have
tended readings toward the warmer guidance.  A weak cold front could
ease southward into the area Thursday night/Friday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west, but think increasing cloud cover
will have more of an effect on high temps Friday afternoon than the
front.  Regardless of whether the front enters the forecast area or
not, it appears low level moisture will begin to increase over the
area Friday and Friday night.

As the aforementioned upper trough moves over the region Friday
night, expect convection to break out, but mainly over the
northeastern half or so of the forecast area.  Instability will be
limited, but still think there could be a few storms capable of
producing hail as mid level lapse rates will be 7.5 to 8 C/Km.
Therefore, will continue to mention gusty winds, hail and frequent
lightning strikes in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  Precipitation
should shift east of the region Saturday morning, but will keep
chance PoPs going Saturday morning over extreme eastern portions of
the Permian Basin.

Temperatures will be a little milder than normal on Saturday and
Sunday morning, while high temperatures will be seasonal.  That is,
until another cold front moves through the area Sunday night
Monday.  Expect temperatures to remain a little below normal through
mid next week.  Rain chance will be negligible through the extended
forecast after Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  35  69  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              64  39  71  41  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  32  68  35  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  40  69  47  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  42  75  43  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  38  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  30  67  32  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   61  25  67  31  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  38  71  39  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  62  39  70  39  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    65  34  73  39  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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034
FXUS64 KMAF 190347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
947 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light SW-W sfc flow
will back to the south after sunset Wednesday. A few high clouds
will be possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The slow warming trend this week looks to continue for the next
couple of days. Northwest flow aloft will persist over the region
through Wednesday, though as the high amplitude ridge over the
western CONUS gradually weakens under the influence of several
shortwaves, a transition to more zonal flow will occur. Under the
zonal flow, Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast,
with high temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to low 70s, near
to slight above normal area-wide.

A shallow shortwave is progged to skirt just north of the area
Thursday night, with little fanfare for our region, as much of the
energy will remain focused over the northern Panhandle. Friday night
and Saturday, however, look to be a different story. On Friday, a
trough will dig south through the Rockies as it moves toward our
area, and ahead of this feature, the region will see a return to
southerly flow, and thus, increased moisture return.  Modest 500mb
height falls will accompany the trough as it moves through the area
on Friday night and Saturday, and given model soundings continue to
indicate elevated instability (generally above 700mb) as well as
fairly steep lapse rates, convection will be possible.  However, the
extent of shower/thunderstorm activity will be highly dependent on
how much moisture return can be achieved prior to the trough
swinging through, and currently it looks like the best moisture
return will be to the east, with greatest potential for
thunderstorms for our area over the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern
Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. Another limiting
factor would be a lack of diurnal destabilization, as the trough
currently looks to move through the area late Friday night and
during the first half of the day Saturday. If the trough slows down,
more widespread activity would be possible.

Beyond Saturday, the forecast will be dry, and mainly focused on
temperatures. A front accompanying the aforementioned trough will
help drop temperatures a few degrees on Saturday and Sunday, tough
most locations will still be in the 60s, with upper 50s possible
over higher terrain. Sunday night, a second, stronger cold front
will drop through the region, with below normal high temperatures in
the 50s expected both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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168
FXUS64 KMAF 182142
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
342 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The slow warming trend this week looks to continue for the next
couple of days. Northwest flow aloft will persist over the region
through Wednesday, though as the high amplitude ridge over the
western CONUS gradually weakens under the influence of several
shortwaves, a transition to more zonal flow will occur. Under the
zonal flow, Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast,
with high temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to low 70s, near
to slight above normal area-wide.

A shallow shortwave is progged to skirt just north of the area
Thursday night, with little fanfare for our region, as much of the
energy will remain focused over the northern Panhandle. Friday night
and Saturday, however, look to be a different story. On Friday, a
trough will dig south through the Rockies as it moves toward our
area, and ahead of this feature, the region will see a return to
southerly flow, and thus, increased moisture return.  Modest 500mb
height falls will accompany the trough as it moves through the area
on Friday night and Saturday, and given model soundings continue to
indicate elevated instability (generally above 700mb) as well as
fairly steep lapse rates, convection will be possible.  However, the
extent of shower/thunderstorm activity will be highly dependent on
how much moisture return can be achieved prior to the trough
swinging through, and currently it looks like the best moisture
return will be to the east, with greatest potential for
thunderstorms for our area over the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern
Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. Another limiting
factor would be a lack of diurnal destabilization, as the trough
currently looks to move through the area late Friday night and
during the first half of the day Saturday. If the trough slows down,
more widespread activity would be possible.

Beyond Saturday, the forecast will be dry, and mainly focused on
temperatures. A front accompanying the aforementioned trough will
help drop temperatures a few degrees on Saturday and Sunday, tough
most locations will still be in the 60s, with upper 50s possible
over higher terrain. Sunday night, a second, stronger cold front
will drop through the region, with below normal high temperatures in
the 50s expected both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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089
FXUS64 KMAF 182059
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
259 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The slow warming trend this week looks to continue for the next
couple of days. Northwest flow aloft will persist over the region
through Wednesday, though as the high amplitude ridge over the
western CONUS gradually weakens under the influence of several
shortwaves, a transition to more zonal flow will occur. Under the
zonal flow, Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast,
with high temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to low 70s, near
to slight above normal area-wide.

A shallow shortwave is progged to skirt just north of the area
Thursday night, with little fanfare for our region, as much of the
energy will remain focused over the northern Panhandle. Friday night
and Saturday, however, look to be a different story. On Friday, a
trough will dig south through the Rockies as it moves toward our
area, and ahead of this feature, the region will see a return to
southerly flow, and thus, increased moisture return.  Modest 500mb
height falls will accompany the trough as it moves through the area
on Friday night and Saturday, and given model soundings continue to
indicate elevated instability (generally above 700mb) as well as
fairly steep lapse rates, convection will be possible.  However, the
extent of shower/thunderstorm activity will be highly dependent on
how much moisture return can be achieved prior to the trough
swinging through, and currently it looks like the best moisture
return will be to the east, with greatest potential for
thunderstorms for our area over the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern
Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. Another limiting
factor would be a lack of diurnal destabilization, as the trough
currently looks to move through the area late Friday night and
during the first half of the day Saturday. If the trough slows down,
more widespread activity would be possible.

Beyond Saturday, the forecast will be dry, and mainly focused on
temperatures. A front accompanying the aforementioned trough will
help drop temperatures a few degrees on Saturday and Sunday, tough
most locations will still be in the 60s, with upper 50s possible
over higher terrain. Sunday night, a second, stronger cold front
will drop through the region, with below normal high temperatures in
the 50s expected both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 31  59  35  67  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              33  63  38  69  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                25  59  31  68  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  64  39  69  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  68  41  73  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  57  37  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   27  57  33  64  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   21  62  27  65  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  62  37  67  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  34  61  38  68  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    30  64  34  71  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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838
FXUS64 KMAF 181708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1108 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light south winds this TAF period at all sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail over the region today as a
broad upper trough over the eastern ConUS slowly shifts eastward.
Meanwhile out west, a series of shortwave troughs will flatten the
upper ridge currently over the western ConUS.  We`ll stay under
northwest flow aloft through mid week, with only a minor shortwave
trough not causing much fanfare as it passes by to the north of the
area.  Temperatures will gradually warm under this regime, and top
out slightly above normal Thursday.

A more significant shortwave trough will head toward the region, and
amplify sufficiently for rain chances to be included in the forecast
for Friday night and Saturday.  Low level moisture will increase
ahead of this trough, and considering it will move over the region,
thunderstorms will be possible at least Friday night.  If current
trends continue, hail will be possible with any storms Friday night
due to modest elevated instability, steep lapse rates of 7.5 to 8
C/Km and plenty of shear.  For now, will make a mention of
thunderstorms Friday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will push through the area with this upper trough, but
this will be a more maritime polar airmass.  That is, temperatures
will definitely not be as cold as the last couple of cold fronts.
If anything, lows Saturday and Sunday will be seasonal, while highs
those days will be at or above normal.  Then again, it could be
pretty windy Saturday and Sunday, which will make it feel a little
cooler.  By Monday, it will be less windy but high temperatures will
be below normal as another cold front moves into the area.  The
forecast will remain dry through the rest of the extended as west/
northwest flow aloft prevails over the region at the base of a
broad ua trough over central/eastern ConUS.  This could also
result in fairly strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains,
especially Saturday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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204
FXUS64 KMAF 181102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly
clear skies. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less with some
gusts possible today at KMAF.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail over the region today as a
broad upper trough over the eastern ConUS slowly shifts eastward.
Meanwhile out west, a series of shortwave troughs will flatten the
upper ridge currently over the western ConUS.  We`ll stay under
northwest flow aloft through mid week, with only a minor shortwave
trough not causing much fanfare as it passes by to the north of the
area.  Temperatures will gradually warm under this regime, and top
out slightly above normal Thursday.

A more significant shortwave trough will head toward the region, and
amplify sufficiently for rain chances to be included in the forecast
for Friday night and Saturday.  Low level moisture will increase
ahead of this trough, and considering it will move over the region,
thunderstorms will be possible at least Friday night.  If current
trends continue, hail will be possible with any storms Friday night
due to modest elevated instability, steep lapse rates of 7.5 to 8
C/Km and plenty of shear.  For now, will make a mention of
thunderstorms Friday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will push through the area with this upper trough, but
this will be a more maritime polar airmass.  That is, temperatures
will definitely not be as cold as the last couple of cold fronts.
If anything, lows Saturday and Sunday will be seasonal, while highs
those days will be at or above normal.  Then again, it could be
pretty windy Saturday and Sunday, which will make it feel a little
cooler.  By Monday, it will be less windy but high temperatures will
be below normal as another cold front moves into the area.  The
forecast will remain dry through the rest of the extended as west/
northwest flow aloft prevails over the region at the base of a
broad ua trough over central/eastern ConUS.  This could also
result in fairly strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains,
especially Saturday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  29  61  34  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  33  62  36  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                53  22  62  31  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  33  65  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  36  65  37  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  31  58  29  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   47  25  58  31  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   50  21  63  27  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  32  63  37  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  50  33  62  36  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    53  29  64  33  /   0   0   0   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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410
FXUS64 KMAF 180939
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
339 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail over the region today as a
broad upper trough over the eastern ConUS slowly shifts eastward.
Meanwhile out west, a series of shortwave troughs will flatten the
upper ridge currently over the western ConUS.  We`ll stay under
northwest flow aloft through mid week, with only a minor shortwave
trough not causing much fanfare as it passes by to the north of the
area.  Temperatures will gradually warm under this regime, and top
out slightly above normal Thursday.

A more significant shortwave trough will head toward the region, and
amplify sufficiently for rain chances to be included in the forecast
for Friday night and Saturday.  Low level moisture will increase
ahead of this trough, and considering it will move over the region,
thunderstorms will be possible at least Friday night.  If current
trends continue, hail will be possible with any storms Friday night
due to modest elevated instability, steep lapse rates of 7.5 to 8
C/Km and plenty of shear.  For now, will make a mention of
thunderstorms Friday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will push through the area with this upper trough, but
this will be a more maritime polar airmass.  That is, temperatures
will definitely not be as cold as the last couple of cold fronts.
If anything, lows Saturday and Sunday will be seasonal, while highs
those days will be at or above normal.  Then again, it could be
pretty windy Saturday and Sunday, which will make it feel a little
cooler.  By Monday, it will be less windy but high temperatures will
be below normal as another cold front moves into the area.  The
forecast will remain dry through the rest of the extended as west/
northwest flow aloft prevails over the region at the base of a
broad ua trough over central/eastern ConUS.  This could also
result in fairly strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains,
especially Saturday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  29  61  34  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  33  62  36  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                53  22  62  31  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  33  65  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  36  65  37  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  31  58  29  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   47  25  58  31  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   50  21  63  27  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  32  63  37  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  50  33  62  36  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    53  29  64  33  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67

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400
FXUS64 KMAF 180516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1116 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue as high clouds decrease from west to
east. Wind will be light overnight and generally out of the
south... picking up slightly during the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with increasing high clouds. Light wind will tend toward the
south as surface ridge slides east.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite photos from this morning showed a band of snow
extending from central Culberson County, east along the southern
Ector and Midland County lines. Other areas of snow were along
I-20 east of Colorado City, near Andrews, and of course northern
Lea County and extreme northern Eddy County which may have seen
amounts exceed one inch. Clear skies though have made short work
of the snow as it all appears to have melted all but a few shaded
and drifted areas.

Increasingly zonal flow will keep skies clear for the next
several days and allow for temperatures to warm back to near
normal by late in the week. A weak upper trough will move across
the area Thursday but a stronger one will develop and move east
along the U.S./Mexico border arriving on Saturday. It is this
trough that will be the one to watch with models developing
showers and storms across the eastern Permian Basin and western
low rolling plains Friday night into Saturday. The trajectory from
this low will be west to east from southern California into Texas
so it will not bring much if any cooler air as it passes east. The
next shot of significantly colder air may not arrive until next
Monday when a ridge redevelops over the west coast and a central
plains trough deepens bringing a stronger front.

Hennig

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 25  49  30  59  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              24  50  31  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  53  28  63  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  29  56  31  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           27  56  35  67  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          26  47  33  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   23  49  27  57  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  50  26  62  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    23  49  30  61  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  24  51  31  61  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    25  56  29  63  /   0   0   0   0

&&



.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/10

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891
FXUS64 KMAF 172328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with increasing high clouds. Light wind will tend toward the
south as surface ridge slides east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite photos from this morning showed a band of snow
extending from central Culberson County, east along the southern
Ector and Midland County lines. Other areas of snow were along
I-20 east of Colorado City, near Andrews, and of course northern
Lea County and extreme northern Eddy County which may have seen
amounts exceed one inch. Clear skies though have made short work
of the snow as it all appears to have melted all but a few shaded
and drifted areas.

Increasingly zonal flow will keep skies clear for the next
several days and allow for temperatures to warm back to near
normal by late in the week. A weak upper trough will move across
the area Thursday but a stronger one will develop and move east
along the U.S./Mexico border arriving on Saturday. It is this
trough that will be the one to watch with models developing
showers and storms across the eastern Permian Basin and western
low rolling plains Friday night into Saturday. The trajectory from
this low will be west to east from southern California into Texas
so it will not bring much if any cooler air as it passes east. The
next shot of significantly colder air may not arrive until next
Monday when a ridge redevelops over the west coast and a central
plains trough deepens bringing a stronger front.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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783
FXUS64 KMAF 172036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite photos from this morning showed a band of snow
extending from central Culberson County, east along the southern
Ector and Midland County lines. Other areas of snow were along
I-20 east of Colorado City, near Andrews, and of course northern
Lea County and extreme northern Eddy County which may have seen
amounts exceed one inch. Clear skies though have made short work
of the snow as it all appears to have melted all but a few shaded
and drifted areas.

Increasingly zonal flow will keep skies clear for the next
several days and allow for temperatures to warm back to near
normal by late in the week. A weak upper trough will move across
the area Thursday but a stronger one will develop and move east
along the U.S./Mexico border arriving on Saturday. It is this
trough that will be the one to watch with models developing
showers and storms across the eastern Permian Basin and western
low rolling plains Friday night into Saturday. The trajectory from
this low will be west to east from southern California into Texas
so it will not bring much if any cooler air as it passes east. The
next shot of significantly colder air may not arrive until next
Monday when a ridge redevelops over the west coast and a central
plains trough deepens bringing a stronger front.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 25  49  30  59  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              24  50  31  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  53  28  63  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  29  56  31  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           27  56  35  67  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          26  47  33  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   23  49  27  57  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  50  26  62  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    23  49  30  61  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  24  51  31  61  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    25  56  29  63  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/10

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882
FXUS64 KMAF 171725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1125 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail area-wide, with only some cirrus
possible tonight. Light and variable winds will become
southeasterly this afternoon, and are expected to remain below
10KT through the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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185
FXUS64 KMAF 171100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
remain light and change from the northwest to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A relatively quiet period of weather is in store for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this week, dominated mainly by an upper lvl
ridge set to move in from the west.

Yesterday`s cold front brrrrought a modified Arctic AMS into the
region, as noted by current temps in the teens along the nrn tier
zones.  Like the previous Arctic AMS, this one was somewhat colder
than anticipated, and current forecast soundings/H85 temp fields
suggest generally staying toward the lower end of guidance in the
short term.  As the sfc ridge slides east later today, winds will
veer to SE by late afternoon and CAA will cease.  However, return
flow will be light, and temps slow to warm under NW flow aloft.  As
noted above, an upper lvl ridge is forecast to develop over the west
coast, but a Pacific trough is set to dampen this feature as it
moves inland, w/the net result of just transitioning NW flow aloft
to zonal.  Thus, temps should not climb back to normal until
Thursday afternoon.  Thursday, the aforementioned Pac trough will
pass thru the area, greatly diminished, and drop a cold front into
the area Thursday night.  The GFS/ECMWF are faster w/the
trough/front than the DGEX/CMC, but this is a rather moot point, as
this will be a dry event, and the front weak.  Temps should drop
just a few degrees Friday, and rebound Saturday.

Meanwhile, a second, deeper Pac trough follows the first, and
arrives Saturday.  Models don`t advertise much of a cold front
w/this feature, but hint at developing a weak dryline over the ern
zones, for a slight chance of convection along the eastern
periphery.  Otherwise, grids stay dry, and temps
near-normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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765
FXUS64 KMAF 170945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A relatively quiet period of weather is in store for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this week, dominated mainly by an upper lvl
ridge set to move in from the west.

Yesterday`s cold front brrrrought a modified Arctic AMS into the
region, as noted by current temps in the teens along the nrn tier
zones.  Like the previous Arctic AMS, this one was somewhat colder
than anticipated, and current forecast soundings/H85 temp fields
suggest generally staying toward the lower end of guidance in the
short term.  As the sfc ridge slides east later today, winds will
veer to SE by late afternoon and CAA will cease.  However, return
flow will be light, and temps slow to warm under NW flow aloft.  As
noted above, an upper lvl ridge is forecast to develop over the west
coast, but a Pacific trough is set to dampen this feature as it
moves inland, w/the net result of just transitioning NW flow aloft
to zonal.  Thus, temps should not climb back to normal until
Thursday afternoon.  Thursday, the aforementioned Pac trough will
pass thru the area, greatly diminished, and drop a cold front into
the area Thursday night.  The GFS/ECMWF are faster w/the
trough/front than the DGEX/CMC, but this is a rather moot point, as
this will be a dry event, and the front weak.  Temps should drop
just a few degrees Friday, and rebound Saturday.

Meanwhile, a second, deeper Pac trough follows the first, and
arrives Saturday.  Models don`t advertise much of a cold front
w/this feature, but hint at developing a weak dryline over the ern
zones, for a slight chance of convection along the eastern
periphery.  Otherwise, grids stay dry, and temps
near-normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  24  49  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  23  52  31  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  23  51  27  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  49  27  51  30  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           46  25  56  36  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          38  24  48  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  20  50  24  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  19  52  24  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  22  49  28  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  41  24  48  32  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  22  53  25  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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690
FXUS64 KMAF 170514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1111 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all terminals. Light northerly winds tonight
will veer to the southeast by Monday afternoon, remaining aob 10kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

UPDATE...
Updating to remove snow.

DISCUSSION...
Updating first period grids/forecast as most of the snow has
moved out of the area. Highest reports were around 1/2 inch at
Queen and near Jal. Went ahead and removed mention of snow tonight
as threat of measurable precipitation winding down... but could be
a few very light flurries before morning. Updated products on
their way.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Latest radar shows bands of light to moderate snow from the Davis
Mountains north into southeastern New Mexico and east into the
Permian Basin. Most of the precipitation is being reported as snow
though there may be some sleet mixed in initially especially in
any convective bands. The shallow nature of the moisture near the
surface is also allowing for some light freezing drizzle to
develop in a few areas though ice accumulation is not expected
from this. Expecting near 1 inch amounts in northern Lea County
and possibly higher amounts in the highest elevations of the
Guadalupe Mountains, but most areas will see a dusting to one half
of an inch. The very cold temperatures are creating a dry snow
which is blowing around some and could create drifts well above
the average snowfall that is expected.

The upper trough creating the wintry precip will move east across
the area tonight, pushing the snow out of the area by midnight.
Decreasing isentropic lift will also cause the precip to diminish
with time so PoPs will be decreasing with time as well as from
west to east. Beginning tomorrow, the highly amplified west coast
ridge that has brought us this frigid air will break down allowing
the pattern to become more zonal. A series of upper troughs will
then move out of the eastern Pacific, across the desert southwest
and into the south plains. The strongest will arrive late in the
week pushing another cold front into the area. The lack of an
amplified pattern will limit the amount of cold air behind the
front so do not expect temperatures as cold as currently seen.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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456
FXUS64 KMAF 170236
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
836 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Updating to remove snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updating first period grids/forecast as most of the snow has
moved out of the area. Highest reports were around 1/2 inch at
Queen and near Jal. Went ahead and removed mention of snow tonight
as threat of measurable precipitation winding down... but could be
a few very light flurries before morning. Updated products on
their way.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be SN and low
cigs/vis affecting terminals in the short term. Currently have
strong northerly winds across the board, behind a cold front that
has moved south of all terminals. Winds are expected to decrease
over the next several hour as surface high pressure settles into the
region tonight. Generally have MVFR cloud deck affecting terminals
but should start to see improvements this evening from west to east.
Otherwise, a few areas of SN (and lowered vis) remain across
portions of west Texas but current thinking is that all activity
will move east of terminals by 03Z. Will amend with any adjustment
needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Latest radar shows bands of light to moderate snow from the Davis
Mountains north into southeastern New Mexico and east into the
Permian Basin. Most of the precipitation is being reported as snow
though there may be some sleet mixed in initially especially in
any convective bands. The shallow nature of the moisture near the
surface is also allowing for some light freezing drizzle to
develop in a few areas though ice accumulation is not expected
from this. Expecting near 1 inch amounts in northern Lea County
and possibly higher amounts in the highest elevations of the
Guadalupe Mountains, but most areas will see a dusting to one half
of an inch. The very cold temperatures are creating a dry snow
which is blowing around some and could create drifts well above
the average snowfall that is expected.

The upper trough creating the wintry precip will move east across
the area tonight, pushing the snow out of the area by midnight.
Decreasing isentropic lift will also cause the precip to diminish
with time so PoPs will be decreasing with time as well as from
west to east. Beginning tomorrow, the highly amplified west coast
ridge that has brought us this frigid air will break down allowing
the pattern to become more zonal. A series of upper troughs will
then move out of the eastern Pacific, across the desert southwest
and into the south plains. The strongest will arrive late in the
week pushing another cold front into the area. The lack of an
amplified pattern will limit the amount of cold air behind the
front so do not expect temperatures as cold as currently seen.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 24  40  25  47  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              24  42  25  48  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  43  26  49  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  31  47  29  50  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           25  44  28  51  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          22  39  27  48  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   21  41  24  47  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  43  23  49  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    22  42  24  48  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  23  42  25  48  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    25  44  26  50  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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356
FXUS64 KMAF 162331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
531 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be SN and low
cigs/vis affecting terminals in the short term. Currently have
strong northerly winds across the board, behind a cold front that
has moved south of all terminals. Winds are expected to decrease
over the next several hour as surface high pressure settles into the
region tonight. Generally have MVFR cloud deck affecting terminals
but should start to see improvements this evening from west to east.
Otherwise, a few areas of SN (and lowered vis) remain across
portions of west Texas but current thinking is that all activity
will move east of terminals by 03Z. Will amend with any adjustment
needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Latest radar shows bands of light to moderate snow from the Davis
Mountains north into southeastern New Mexico and east into the
Permian Basin. Most of the precipitation is being reported as snow
though there may be some sleet mixed in initially especially in
any convective bands. The shallow nature of the moisture near the
surface is also allowing for some light freezing drizzle to
develop in a few areas though ice accumulation is not expected
from this. Expecting near 1 inch amounts in northern Lea County
and possibly higher amounts in the highest elevations of the
Guadalupe Mountains, but most areas will see a dusting to one half
of an inch. The very cold temperatures are creating a dry snow
which is blowing around some and could create drifts well above
the average snowfall that is expected.

The upper trough creating the wintry precip will move east across
the area tonight, pushing the snow out of the area by midnight.
Decreasing isentropic lift will also cause the precip to diminish
with time so PoPs will be decreasing with time as well as from
west to east. Beginning tomorrow, the highly amplified west coast
ridge that has brought us this frigid air will break down allowing
the pattern to become more zonal. A series of upper troughs will
then move out of the eastern Pacific, across the desert southwest
and into the south plains. The strongest will arrive late in the
week pushing another cold front into the area. The lack of an
amplified pattern will limit the amount of cold air behind the
front so do not expect temperatures as cold as currently seen.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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341
FXUS64 KMAF 162046
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Latest radar shows bands of light to moderate snow from the Davis
Mountains north into southeastern New Mexico and east into the
Permian Basin. Most of the precipitation is being reported as snow
though there may be some sleet mixed in initially especially in
any convective bands. The shallow nature of the moisture near the
surface is also allowing for some light freezing drizzle to
develop in a few areas though ice accumulation is not expected
from this. Expecting near 1 inch amounts in northern Lea County
and possibly higher amounts in the highest elevations of the
Guadalupe Mountains, but most areas will see a dusting to one half
of an inch. The very cold temperatures are creating a dry snow
which is blowing around some and could create drifts well above
the average snowfall that is expected.

The upper trough creating the wintry precip will move east across
the area tonight, pushing the snow out of the area by midnight.
Decreasing isentropic lift will also cause the precip to diminish
with time so PoPs will be decreasing with time as well as from
west to east. Beginning tomorrow, the highly amplified west coast
ridge that has brought us this frigid air will break down allowing
the pattern to become more zonal. A series of upper troughs will
then move out of the eastern Pacific, across the desert southwest
and into the south plains. The strongest will arrive late in the
week pushing another cold front into the area. The lack of an
amplified pattern will limit the amount of cold air behind the
front so do not expect temperatures as cold as currently seen.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 24  40  25  47  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              24  42  25  48  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                23  43  26  49  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  31  47  29  50  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           25  44  28  51  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          22  39  27  48  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   21  41  24  47  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  43  23  49  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    22  42  24  48  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  23  42  25  48  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    25  44  26  50  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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807
FXUS64 KMAF 161713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1113 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
MVFR or lower cigs have filled in behind a strong cold front.
Gusty northerly winds will continue into the evening before
decreasing overnight. An area of snow continues to move east out
of New Mexico and should affect all terminals except KPEQ and
KFST this afternoon. Lower visibilities and light icing can be
expected. VFR conditions are expected to return later tonight.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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723
FXUS64 KMAF 161556
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
956 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs across southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin today into this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing a light band of precipitation north of
Lamesa approaching the northern Permian Basin. Model soundings are
showing a mid level warm layer above 0C which is responsible for
reports out of Lubbock of freezing rain/drizzle and sleet. Areas
further north are seeing snow where the warm layer has eroded and
deep layer lift is present. Cannot rule out advisory level ice and
snow accumulations from Hobbs to Snyder, but the moisture is very
shallow right now and lift is weak so precip amounts the next
several hours will likely be very light. Later today we get a
brief shot of stronger lift but colder air filtering in will
change the p-type to snow and am not sure we will get an inch so
will not issue an advisory at this time. Will handle any winter
weather issues with social media posts for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

A cold front is moving into the area with winds becoming gusty out
of the north to northeast behind the front.  Low clouds are also
moving in behind the front with low ceilings reaching MAF very
shortly.  There is a chance of light rain and snow this afternoon
with possible reduction in visibilities.  The precipitation and low
ceilings should clear out of the area around 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A complicated scenario is in store for the first period, as an upper
lvl trough which WV currently places near the Four Corners digs SE
and moves thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon.
Ahead of this feature, as noted in sfc analysis and on area radars,
a cold front is moving thru the region.  Fropa at KMAF was at around
0830Z...2-3 hours ahead of what models were forecasting 24 hours
ago.  As the upper trough nears the area later today, models develop
precip ahead of this feature this afternoon, w/precip type being
very dependent on CAA.  Main concerns will be the nrn Permian Basin
and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  Forecast NAM soundings start out cold,
but w/the column saturated only in the PBL...too warm for ice to be
present.  Min temps in the saturated layer are cold enough for
FZRA...but the cold layer looks just thick enough (~750m) to favor
IP over FZRA.  As the afternoon progresses, deeper CAA arrives,
saturating the column up enough for a transition to -SN.  QPFs keep
snow accumulations under an inch, but slippery roadways and reduced
vsbys may be a concern, and will be addressed in the HWO.  Frequent
updates will be possible, as a degree or two difference in the
soundings and reality will call for a different precip type.

Otherwise, a hard freeze follows overnight, but temps begin warming
Monday as the sfc ridge slides east and return flow resumes Monday
afternoon.  This AMS is not as potent as the last, and temps should
rebound to near-normal by Thursday afternoon as NW flow aloft
transitions to zonal.  A weak front is forecast to stall out in the
nrn zones Wednesday afternoon, but looks to have a negligible effect
on temps.  A stronger front arrives Thursday night, w/the ECMWF/CMC
coming in much stronger than the GFS/DGEX.  For now, the consensus
seems to be to keep temps near normal and grids mostly dry into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  26  39  24  /  40  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              38  27  43  27  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                40  25  44  29  /  60  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  32  49  28  /   0  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  26  47  27  /  10  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  21  41  28  /  60  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  23  41  25  /  50  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   62  19  48  16  /  20  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  24  42  24  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  25  42  24  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    42  28  46  24  /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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342
FXUS64 KMAF 161123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front is moving into the area with winds becoming gusty out
of the north to northeast behind the front.  Low clouds are also
moving in behind the front with low ceilings reaching MAF very
shortly.  There is a chance of light rain and snow this afternoon
with possible reduction in visibilities.  The precipitation and low
ceilings should clear out of the area around 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A complicated scenario is in store for the first period, as an upper
lvl trough which WV currently places near the Four Corners digs SE
and moves thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon.
Ahead of this feature, as noted in sfc analysis and on area radars,
a cold front is moving thru the region.  Fropa at KMAF was at around
0830Z...2-3 hours ahead of what models were forecasting 24 hours
ago.  As the upper trough nears the area later today, models develop
precip ahead of this feature this afternoon, w/precip type being
very dependent on CAA.  Main concerns will be the nrn Permian Basin
and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  Forecast NAM soundings start out cold,
but w/the column saturated only in the PBL...too warm for ice to be
present.  Min temps in the saturated layer are cold enough for
FZRA...but the cold layer looks just thick enough (~750m) to favor
IP over FZRA.  As the afternoon progresses, deeper CAA arrives,
saturating the column up enough for a transition to -SN.  QPFs keep
snow accumulations under an inch, but slippery roadways and reduced
vsbys may be a concern, and will be addressed in the HWO.  Frequent
updates will be possible, as a degree or two difference in the
soundings and reality will call for a different precip type.

Otherwise, a hard freeze follows overnight, but temps begin warming
Monday as the sfc ridge slides east and return flow resumes Monday
afternoon.  This AMS is not as potent as the last, and temps should
rebound to near-normal by Thursday afternoon as NW flow aloft
transitions to zonal.  A weak front is forecast to stall out in the
nrn zones Wednesday afternoon, but looks to have a negligible effect
on temps.  A stronger front arrives Thursday night, w/the ECMWF/CMC
coming in much stronger than the GFS/DGEX.  For now, the consensus
seems to be to keep temps near normal and grids mostly dry into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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543
FXUS64 KMAF 161025
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
425 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A complicated scenario is in store for the first period, as an upper
lvl trough which WV currently places near the Four Corners digs SE
and moves thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon.
Ahead of this feature, as noted in sfc analysis and on area radars,
a cold front is moving thru the region.  Fropa at KMAF was at around
0830Z...2-3 hours ahead of what models were forecasting 24 hours
ago.  As the upper trough nears the area later today, models develop
precip ahead of this feature this afternoon, w/precip type being
very dependent on CAA.  Main concerns will be the nrn Permian Basin
and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  Forecast NAM soundings start out cold,
but w/the column saturated only in the PBL...too warm for ice to be
present.  Min temps in the saturated layer are cold enough for
FZRA...but the cold layer looks just thick enough (~750m) to favor
IP over FZRA.  As the afternoon progresses, deeper CAA arrives,
saturating the column up enough for a transition to -SN.  QPFs keep
snow accumulations under an inch, but slippery roadways and reduced
vsbys may be a concern, and will be addressed in the HWO.  Frequent
updates will be possible, as a degree or two difference in the
soundings and reality will call for a different precip type.

Otherwise, a hard freeze follows overnight, but temps begin warming
Monday as the sfc ridge slides east and return flow resumes Monday
afternoon.  This AMS is not as potent as the last, and temps should
rebound to near-normal by Thursday afternoon as NW flow aloft
transitions to zonal.  A weak front is forecast to stall out in the
nrn zones Wednesday afternoon, but looks to have a negligible effect
on temps.  A stronger front arrives Thursday night, w/the ECMWF/CMC
coming in much stronger than the GFS/DGEX.  For now, the consensus
seems to be to keep temps near normal and grids mostly dry into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  26  39  24  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  27  43  27  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                40  25  44  29  /  50   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  32  49  28  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  26  47  27  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  21  41  28  /  60   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  23  41  25  /  30   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   62  19  48  16  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  24  42  24  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  25  42  24  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    42  28  46  24  /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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939
FXUS64 KMAF 160456
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1056 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main focus currently is a cold front just south of Lubbock, which
is continuing its trek southward. It is expected to reach KCNM and
KHOB around 08Z, KMAF and KINK around 09Z, KPEQ around 10Z, and
KFST around 13Z. Low-end MVFR ceilings will gradually fill in
behind the front, with winds becoming gusty from the north. A shot
of wintry precipitation across the northern half of the area is
possible Sunday afternoon, with greatest confidence for -RA/-SN to
affect KCNM and KHOB, though have also included TEMPOS at KINK and
KMAF between 20Z and 00Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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157
FXUS64 KMAF 152351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A complex forecast this TAF period. Wind gusts will diminish
this evening ahead of a cold front, which will move across the
area late tonight/early Sunday, impacting SE New Mexico TAF sites
around 10Z and reaching KFST by around 15Z. Gusty north winds are
expected in the wake of the front, with ceilings decreasing to
low-end MVFR across much of the area, lagging the front by a few
hours. A disturbance moving through the region Sunday could
generate some -RA/-SN over the northern half of the area, thus
have introduced mention for KHOB and KCNM where confidence is
greatest for this to occur. Otherwise, expect north winds and low
ceilings to persist through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have been much warmer today than seen recently, but
the pleasant weather will be short lived as another strong cold
front moves through the area tomorrow morning. There will be more
moisture associated with this front so there will be a chance for
wintry precipitation. Looking at vertical profiles for tomorrow,
it appears most of the moisture will be concentrated below 700mb,
with limited moisture above. This shallow moisture combined with
temperatures in dendritic growth zone of -5 to -8C are not
conducive for much accumulating snow. Additionally most of the
lift associated with precip generation will be weak along the
elevated front favoring mostly flurry type snow fall tomorrow with
some accumulations up to an inch from northern Lea County across
the extreme northern Permian Basin. There will be an elevated warm
layer above freezing, but it will be located above where most
precip generation will occur. Therefore the main precip type will
be snow where surface temperatures are cold enough and rain where
the surface warm layer remains. Do not anticipate much if any
sleet or freezing rain. Any precip will shift south along with the
leading edge of the surface front and will become all snow Sunday
night. Orographic lift may also allow for some light snow in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains though the elevated warm layer will
limit amounts.

Winds at Guadalupe Pass today have been near high wind criteria
but will handle this with social media posts as it is too
localized and marginal for a warning. The same holds for tomorrow
when an east gap wind will develop at GDP with sustained northeast
winds approaching 35kts, but again it appears too marginal and
brief to issue a watch or warning at this time. The surface high
settles in Monday but clearing skies will allow for some warming.
A transition to zonal upper flow will continue the warming trend
through the remainder of the week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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921
FXUS64 KMAF 152050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have been much warmer today than seen recently, but
the pleasant weather will be short lived as another strong cold
front moves through the area tomorrow morning. There will be more
moisture associated with this front so there will be a chance for
wintry precipitation. Looking at vertical profiles for tomorrow,
it appears most of the moisture will be concentrated below 700mb,
with limited moisture above. This shallow moisture combined with
temperatures in dendritic growth zone of -5 to -8C are not
conducive for much accumulating snow. Additionally most of the
lift associated with precip generation will be weak along the
elevated front favoring mostly flurry type snow fall tomorrow with
some accumulations up to an inch from northern Lea County across
the extreme northern Permian Basin. There will be an elevated warm
layer above freezing, but it will be located above where most
precip generation will occur. Therefore the main precip type will
be snow where surface temperatures are cold enough and rain where
the surface warm layer remains. Do not anticipate much if any
sleet or freezing rain. Any precip will shift south along with the
leading edge of the surface front and will become all snow Sunday
night. Orographic lift may also allow for some light snow in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains though the elevated warm layer will
limit amounts.

Winds at Guadalupe Pass today have been near high wind criteria
but will handle this with social media posts as it is too
localized and marginal for a warning. The same holds for tomorrow
when an east gap wind will develop at GDP with sustained northeast
winds approaching 35kts, but again it appears too marginal and
brief to issue a watch or warning at this time. The surface high
settles in Monday but clearing skies will allow for some warming.
A transition to zonal upper flow will continue the warming trend
through the remainder of the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  36  23  42  /   0  30  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              31  36  24  42  /   0  20  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                38  44  24  45  /   0  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  40  60  32  48  /   0   0  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  50  26  44  /   0  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  50  23  42  /   0  50  20   0
HOBBS NM                   29  34  21  44  /   0  40  10   0
MARFA TX                   36  60  24  43  /   0  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  39  22  43  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  32  39  24  43  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    36  45  24  46  /   0  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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952
FXUS64 KMAF 151718
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish after sunset this evening. A strong cold front will
arrive early in the morning reaching KHOB and KMAF around 10Z with
MVFR cigs or lower filling in behind the front. Light snow is
possible by the afternoon...but will likely occur after this TAF period

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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725
FXUS64 KMAF 151005
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
405 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail most of the forecast period. A cold front
will enter the region near the end of the forecast period...w/latest
buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KHOB at around 09z. Post-frontal
stratus should develop...but only at KMAF before the forecast period
runs out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough will begin to move over the central conus today with
a portion of the trough lagging behind.  Temperatures are expected
to warm up even further this afternoon to near normal as surface
winds shift toward south and west and 850 mb temps warm.  A cold
front associated with the upper trough over the Upper Midwest is
expected to push into the area Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Lift
will increase over the area as the upper trough moves overhead so
there will be a slight chance of precipitation across southeast New
Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin
Sunday afternoon.  Expect the precipitation to be in the form of a
rain/snow mix since temperatures will be dropping through the
afternoon to near freezing.  The precipitation will shift further
south into the CWA Sunday night into Monday morning and change over
to all snow as temperatures drop to below freezing for a good
portion of the area.  Not much accumulation is expected.
Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday as a result of the surface
ridge to the east of the area.  The precipitation is expected to be
over with by Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the region will be on the backside of the upper trough
and surface winds will shift to the south.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Tuesday as a result of this wind shift.  The surface
ridge will move well to the east on Wednesday and a surface trough
is expected to develop.  This will contribute to a good warm up on
Wednesday afternoon.  Additional warming is expected on Thursday as
the surface trough across the area strengthens.  The upper air
pattern between the GFS and ECMWF starts to diverge on Friday but
generally expect conditions to remain dry into next Saturday.  A
cold front appears to move into the area late next week bringing
temperatures down a little.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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887
FXUS64 KMAF 151002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
401 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough will begin to move over the central conus today with
a portion of the trough lagging behind.  Temperatures are expected
to warm up even further this afternoon to near normal as surface
winds shift toward south and west and 850 mb temps warm.  A cold
front associated with the upper trough over the Upper Midwest is
expected to push into the area Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Lift
will increase over the area as the upper trough moves overhead so
there will be a slight chance of precipitation across southeast New
Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin
Sunday afternoon.  Expect the precipitation to be in the form of a
rain/snow mix since temperatures will be dropping through the
afternoon to near freezing.  The precipitation will shift further
south into the CWA Sunday night into Monday morning and change over
to all snow as temperatures drop to below freezing for a good
portion of the area.  Not much accumulation is expected.
Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday as a result of the surface
ridge to the east of the area.  The precipitation is expected to be
over with by Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the region will be on the backside of the upper trough
and surface winds will shift to the south.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Tuesday as a result of this wind shift.  The surface
ridge will move well to the east on Wednesday and a surface trough
is expected to develop.  This will contribute to a good warm up on
Wednesday afternoon.  Additional warming is expected on Thursday as
the surface trough across the area strengthens.  The upper air
pattern between the GFS and ECMWF starts to diverge on Friday but
generally expect conditions to remain dry into next Saturday.  A
cold front appears to move into the area late next week bringing
temperatures down a little.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  32  38  25  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              69  32  36  25  /   0   0  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  39  43  25  /   0   0  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  43  60  33  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  44  48  28  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  41  47  26  /   0  10  30  20
HOBBS NM                   67  28  36  24  /   0   0  40  20
MARFA TX                   68  38  61  24  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  33  40  25  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  68  35  40  25  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    73  37  44  28  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80

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969
FXUS64 KMAF 150458
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1058 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals. SE winds tonight expected to increase
from the west by Saturday afternoon. Latest forecast guidance has
come in weaker with the wind speeds for tomorrow so went ahead and
pulled mention of gusts from all but PEQ. Kept sustained speeds near
12kt. Otherwise, a cold front is expected to move into northern
portions of the region just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions are
expected to persist at all terminals. SE winds across the board this
evening but slightly elevated in speed at MAF and CNM. Speeds should
decrease shortly after sunset. Winds will then increase to near 12kt
sustained (with a few gusts possible) from the west by Saturday
afternoon as surface low pressure strengthens just north of the
area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A bit of a roller coaster ride is in store for temperatures across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas the next few days, not to
mention the potential for a little wintry precipitation Sunday
afternoon and night.  Nearly zonal flow aloft will prevail through
Saturday which will begin to shove the arctic airmass eastward
today, and promote  a surface trough developing/strengthening
southward into the region Saturday.  This will result in low
temperatures tonight remaining below normal, but not quite as cold
as previous mornings.  In addition, temperatures will jump to near
or above normal levels Saturday afternoon as downslope southwesterly
winds prevail, and aid the expulsion of the arctic airmass.

However, a shortwave trough over the Pac Northwest today will drop
rapidly southeastward and affect the region Sunday and Sunday
night.  Portions of this same upper trough will shear eastward
across the northern Rockies and northern U.S. Plains through
Saturday night and send a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the
region Sunday morning.  As the rest of the shortwave trough shears
southeastward over the region, expect precipitation to break out
over southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains Sunday
afternoon, then spread east, southeastward over the Permian Basin
Sunday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation will
begin as snow over the Guadalupe Mountains, and across northern
portions of Lea County Sunday afternoon with a mix of rain or snow
further south.  Will keep PoPs mainly over these areas through
Sunday afternoon, with little accumulation of snow expected.  As the
precipitation spreads east southeastward Sunday night, it appears
most will fall as light snow.  The RRQ of a 120kt h25 jet over the
region will provide additional lift and cooling through the column.
Current progs are varying in how deep the shortwave trough will be
as it passes overhead, but all do not display much moisture to work
with, so for now will keep precipitation amounts light, on the order
of an inch or less of snow accumulation.  Will keep PoPs going these
periods, make a mention of light snowfall accumulations Sunday night
and have later shifts monitor for any change.

Thereafter, there will be a slow warming trend through the week as
upper ridging begins to spread over the region.  There could be
another shortwave trough moving over the region mid to late next
week.  This trough will flatten a highly amplified ua ridge over the
western ConUS, which was one of the main factors transporting arctic
air southward the last several days.  In other words, with the
passage of this ua trough, we will not see frigid air invading the
central U.S, or southeast New Mexico and west Texas through next
weekend.  It does appear the extended forecast will remain dry
though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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021
FXUS64 KMAF 142317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
517 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions are
expected to persist at all terminals. SE winds across the board this
evening but slightly elevated in speed at MAF and CNM. Speeds should
decrease shortly after sunset. Winds will then increase to near 12kt
sustained (with a few gusts possible) from the west by Saturday
afternoon as surface low pressure strengthens just north of the
area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A bit of a roller coaster ride is in store for temperatures across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas the next few days, not to
mention the potential for a little wintry precipitation Sunday
afternoon and night.  Nearly zonal flow aloft will prevail through
Saturday which will begin to shove the arctic airmass eastward
today, and promote  a surface trough developing/strengthening
southward into the region Saturday.  This will result in low
temperatures tonight remaining below normal, but not quite as cold
as previous mornings.  In addition, temperatures will jump to near
or above normal levels Saturday afternoon as downslope southwesterly
winds prevail, and aid the expulsion of the arctic airmass.

However, a shortwave trough over the Pac Northwest today will drop
rapidly southeastward and affect the region Sunday and Sunday
night.  Portions of this same upper trough will shear eastward
across the northern Rockies and northern U.S. Plains through
Saturday night and send a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the
region Sunday morning.  As the rest of the shortwave trough shears
southeastward over the region, expect precipitation to break out
over southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains Sunday
afternoon, then spread east, southeastward over the Permian Basin
Sunday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation will
begin as snow over the Guadalupe Mountains, and across northern
portions of Lea County Sunday afternoon with a mix of rain or snow
further south.  Will keep PoPs mainly over these areas through
Sunday afternoon, with little accumulation of snow expected.  As the
precipitation spreads east southeastward Sunday night, it appears
most will fall as light snow.  The RRQ of a 120kt h25 jet over the
region will provide additional lift and cooling through the column.
Current progs are varying in how deep the shortwave trough will be
as it passes overhead, but all do not display much moisture to work
with, so for now will keep precipitation amounts light, on the order
of an inch or less of snow accumulation.  Will keep PoPs going these
periods, make a mention of light snowfall accumulations Sunday night
and have later shifts monitor for any change.

Thereafter, there will be a slow warming trend through the week as
upper ridging begins to spread over the region.  There could be
another shortwave trough moving over the region mid to late next
week.  This trough will flatten a highly amplified ua ridge over the
western ConUS, which was one of the main factors transporting arctic
air southward the last several days.  In other words, with the
passage of this ua trough, we will not see frigid air invading the
central U.S, or southeast New Mexico and west Texas through next
weekend.  It does appear the extended forecast will remain dry
though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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346
FXUS64 KMAF 141948
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
148 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A bit of a roller coaster ride is in store for temperatures across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas the next few days, not to
mention the potential for a little wintry precipitation Sunday
afternoon and night.  Nearly zonal flow aloft will prevail through
Saturday which will begin to shove the arctic airmass eastward
today, and promote  a surface trough developing/strengthening
southward into the region Saturday.  This will result in low
temperatures tonight remaining below normal, but not quite as cold
as previous mornings.  In addition, temperatures will jump to near
or above normal levels Saturday afternoon as downslope southwesterly
winds prevail, and aid the expulsion of the arctic airmass.

However, a shortwave trough over the Pac Northwest today will drop
rapidly southeastward and affect the region Sunday and Sunday
night.  Portions of this same upper trough will shear eastward
across the northern Rockies and northern U.S. Plains through
Saturday night and send a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the
region Sunday morning.  As the rest of the shortwave trough shears
southeastward over the region, expect precipitation to break out
over southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains Sunday
afternoon, then spread east, southeastward over the Permian Basin
Sunday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation will
begin as snow over the Guadalupe Mountains, and across northern
portions of Lea County Sunday afternoon with a mix of rain or snow
further south.  Will keep PoPs mainly over these areas through
Sunday afternoon, with little accumulation of snow expected.  As the
precipitation spreads east southeastward Sunday night, it appears
most will fall as light snow.  The RRQ of a 120kt h25 jet over the
region will provide additional lift and cooling through the column.
Current progs are varying in how deep the shortwave trough will be
as it passes overhead, but all do not display much moisture to work
with, so for now will keep precipitation amounts light, on the order
of an inch or less of snow accumulation.  Will keep PoPs going these
periods, make a mention of light snowfall accumulations Sunday night
and have later shifts monitor for any change.

Thereafter, there will be a slow warming trend through the week as
upper ridging begins to spread over the region.  There could be
another shortwave trough moving over the region mid to late next
week.  This trough will flatten a highly amplified ua ridge over the
western ConUS, which was one of the main factors transporting arctic
air southward the last several days.  In other words, with the
passage of this ua trough, we will not see frigid air invading the
central U.S, or southeast New Mexico and west Texas through next
weekend.  It does appear the extended forecast will remain dry
though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  69  32  38  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              32  69  32  36  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                35  72  39  43  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  31  62  43  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  74  44  48  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  64  41  47  /   0   0  10  20
HOBBS NM                   32  67  28  39  /  10   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   31  68  38  61  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  68  33  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  32  67  35  40  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    33  73  37  44  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/67

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027
FXUS64 KMAF 141712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are cold again this morning across the area with most
places below freezing.  A Freeze Warning is currently in effect for
the Presidio Valley as temperatures there drop to the freezing
point.  Everywhere else in the CWA has already experienced a hard
freeze so the Presidio Valley is the only location in the Freeze
Warning.  Cloud cover over the Western Low Rolling Plains is helping
to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer although still below the
freezing point.  Surface winds will shift toward the southeast this
afternoon with the area under mostly zonal flow aloft as another
upper trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.  850 mb temperatures
will increase by a good amount today so expect high temperatures to
be 10+ degrees warmer than yesterday.

On Saturday, the upper trough will move closer to the central conus
with a portion of the trough lagging behind.  Temperatures are
expected to warm up even further Saturday afternoon to near normal
as surface winds shift toward south and west and 850 mb temps warm.
A cold front associated with the upper trough over the Upper Midwest
is expected to push into the area Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Lift will increase over the area as the upper trough moves overhead
so there will be a slight chance of precipitation across portions of
southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin Sunday
afternoon.  Expect most of the precipitation to be in the form of
rain since temperatures will mostly be above freezing.  The
precipitation will shift further south into the CWA Sunday night
into Monday morning and possibly change over to snow as temperatures
drop to below freezing for a good portion of the area.  Not much
accumulation is expected.  Temperatures will remain chilly on Monday
as a result of the surface ridge to the east of the area.  The
precipitation is expected to be over with by Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the region will be on the backside of the upper trough
and surface winds will shift to the south.  Temperatures will warm
slightly on Tuesday as a result of this wind shift.  The surface
ridge will move well to the east on Wednesday and a surface trough
is expected to develop.  This will contribute to a good warm up on
Wednesday afternoon.  Additional warming is expected on Thursday as
the surface trough across the area strengthens.  The upper air
pattern between the GFS and ECMWF starts to diverge on Friday but
generally expect conditions to remain dry into next Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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