Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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240
FXUS64 KMAF 121742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Intensifying surface low pressure over western Kansas and the
Oklahoma Panhandle will result in breezy to windy southwest flow
at TAF sites over southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. Upper
level disturbances moving into the area from Mexico will continue
to provided associated high cloudiness. VFR conditions will
persist through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
More warm and dry weather today, with a canopy of high clouds still
parading across the area ahead of Sunday`s system (currently
located over California). Critical fire weather concerns continue
primarily across Southeast New Mexico and its bordering Texas
counties today, with potentially widespread critical conditions on
Sunday. For more information, please see the fire weather
discussion below. Similar to yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for
most of the area. A sharpening lee surface trough this afternoon
will allow the dry line to mix to the eastern edges of the CWA,
roughly along a Snyder-Big Lake-Sanderson line. While convective
development is possible along and east of the dry line (where
better moisture resides), the cap remains strong with around
100-200 j/kg CIN and have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for these areas.

Models are also attempting to develop showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Mexico as a subtle
shortwave trough traverses Chihuahua. The NAM, GFS, and RUC all
develop QPF this afternoon and evening from Culberson County into
the Marfa Plateau as a result of this activity moving northeast.
Forecast soundings do indicate top down moistening across
southwest Texas, but still maintain rather large surface
temperature-dew point spreads (30-40 degrees). If anything
actually does make it into Texas (and confidence is not high that
it will), a very dry sub cloud layer makes virga with localized
gusty winds and occasional lightning seem the more likely outcome.

The more noticeable effect of the sharpening surface trough will be
an increase in surface winds today, with gusty southwest winds 15-25
MPH across lower elevations and higher speeds across higher terrain.
Expect windy conditions again Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses
the region, with height falls across the area producing slightly
cooler temperatures. As this trough swings across the area, it will send a
rather potent cold front through the area Sunday night. Expect the
front to push through the entire area by midday Monday.

A very tight pressure gradient (5 mb/50 miles) associated with
this front will produce possible wind advisory criteria (winds
25-35 MPH) behind the front mainly north of I-20. Given a
favorable northeast direction with these winds, a high wind
warning may also be needed for the Guadalupe Mountains (including
Guadalupe Pass). Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds
along and behind the front. Strongest winds look to materialize
between 10Z and 18Z on Monday morning. A secondary wave will dive south
Monday afternoon and, despite sufficient lift, the air over the
forecast area looks too moisture starved (PWATs around 0.3 in over
the northern Permian Basin) to support any of the precip models
are generating over the northern portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures will also be much colder behind Sunday`s front with the
potential for a late season freeze on Tuesday morning in the
mountains and northern Permian Basin. Areas along and north of I-20
will need to continue to monitor the forecast for issuance of any
freeze watches or warnings. Shortwave ridging builds across Texas
and New Mexico by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm back to
near seasonal normals. The ECMWF and GFS are indicating a more
active pattern again heading into next weekend, but this far out
have different solutions. Kept the forecast dry into next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting another day of very dry air over much of the region with
minimum RH below 15 percent west of a dryline.  As a surface low
moves over the Panhandle today should reach or exceed 20ft winds of
20 mph across SE NM... Guadalupe Mtns... Van Horn region... portions
of the Upper Trans Pecos and NW Permian Basin.  Will update the Red
Flag Warning to include all of these locations.  A few thunderstorms
possible this afternoon/evening across the Marfa Plateau... these
could be dry storms.  Very dry air will spread across all of the
region Sunday as a west wind sweeps across the area.  Minimum RH 10
percent or less.  As the pressure gradient tightens 20ft winds will
exceed 20 mph over much of the area.  Will continue the Fire Weather
Watch Sunday for all of W TX and SE NM.  A strong cold front will
blow through the area Sunday night ending fire weather concerns for
a few days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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