Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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198
FXUS64 KMAF 281738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will move into Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
after 09z. This will result in a surface wind shift to the
north. Surface winds behind the front will be breezy. Increasing
high level cloudiness is expected. However, VFR conditions are
expected area wide through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another mild day is in store for southeast New Mexico and west Texas
today.  As a matter of fact, it`ll be pretty warm with temperatures
rising nearly 20 degrees above normal and challenging record highs.
This will occur as a surface trough strengthens over the southern
U.S. Plains and into the region ahead of a cold front.  Enjoy today
since temperatures will drop back to around normal levels Thursday,
especially north of Interstate 10.  Behind the front Thursday night,
gap winds in the Guadalupes may rise to at least 35 to 45 mph, so
will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now.  The
forecast will turn wet thereafter as a highly amplified upper trough
currently off the California coast heads east.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, and as the associated surface
ridge settles south into the area Thursday night, we should see rain
begin to break out over the western half of the forecast area.  This
will occur as low level easterly upslope flow combines with deep
layer lift ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and the approach of
the RRQ of a 90kt h25 jet.  Eastward progress of the rain may be a
little slow through the day Friday, but should become widespread
over the entire area Friday night as the above features move
overhead.  Therefore, have tempered rain chances a little over the
eastern CWA Friday, but increased PoPs areawide Friday night.  Some
wintry precipitation could mix in late Thursday night, Friday and
Friday night.  Forecast soundings indicate precipitation could
change to sleet or snow around 6kft in the Guadalupes, if not
northern Lea County.  Did not go with much accumulation since
temperatures through the atmospheric column are only marginally
conducive for some bursts of sleet and/or snow, heights/thicknesses
ahead of the upper trough are not very low and lastly surface
temperatures are just not very cold.  Later shifts will have to
monitor for any changes in any, or all, of the above.  For now, will
make a mention of a mix possible in these areas.  There could be
some localized, but minor flooding problems Friday and Friday night
as pwats rise to around 1 inch, or 2 s.d. above normal.  The best
moisture will head east on Saturday, and take the better rain
chances with it.

An elongated, positively tilted ua trough will extend over the
region by Saturday night.  An upper low will calve from this ua
trough and sink well south over Mexico.  There may be some light
precipitation over the area on Saturday night and Sunday as another
cold front moves south into the area.  The only shot at wintry
precipitation appears to be the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of
southeast New Mexico again.  Since moisture will be a little more
scarce, do not think there will be any appreciable accumulations.
Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through early next
week, but it appears near to above normal readings will be possible
Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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