Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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468
FXUS64 KMAF 262224
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds will
decouple after sunset, then pick up again late morning Wednesday,
although not near as strong. A few high clouds will be possible,
and convective temps too warm for a cu field.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

It has turned into a windy, warm afternoon as a dryline continues to
surge east of the region. The base of a large upper trough over CO
is currently brushing the northern half of the area. An area of lift
moving into the TX Panhandle is bringing a few clouds and virga to
the northern Permian Basin. This virga may help strong winds reach
the surface so don`t be surprised to see winds gust to 50 mph or
so under these showers. Strong mid level winds mixing down and
subsidence behind the area of lift is leading to very gusty
conditions across almost the entire region. Will leave the High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories as is as winds aren`t likely to
die down until after sunset. Critical fire weather also continues
as rh`s have dropped below 15 percent at most locations. See Fire
Wx discussion below.

The upper trough will only slowly move east across the Central
Plains through midweek. This will keep our area in west-northwest
flow aloft bringing slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday. A cold
front will move south across the Panhandle Wednesday night, but
likely not make it much past Lubbuck. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will dig near the Four Corners Thursday and transition our flow
aloft to the southwest. Thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern half of the area Thursday evening and overnight along and
east of a retreating dryline. Some of these storms may even be
severe as lapse rates steepen and a strong LLJ kicks in. This
upper trough will slowly lift into the Plains through the end of
the week with dry, windy conditions returning Friday and Saturday.
Expect near normal temperatures late this week into the early part
of the weekend before more changes come our way next week.

Models have been fairly consistent in digging yet another upper
trough to our west over the weekend. This system has the potential
to bring below normal temperatures and even some rain the to region
by the beginning of next week. Stay tuned as changes to the forecast
are likely over the next several days leading into this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across southeast New
Mexico and much of West Texas until sunset when winds subside.
Strong lift from an upper level low is causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop from northern Lea County
northward. Given very low dewpoints in the 20s, cloud bases will be
above 10K feet providing the potential for lightning starts and
gusty and erratic winds so this will have to be closely monitored
the next several hours.

The low causing the winds will move off to the east tonight, however
enough winds will remain over the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains that critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again on Wednesday where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Other
areas will see very low relative humidities but lower winds so there
may be an opportunity for prescribed burning. Another upper level
low will move across the area on Friday bringing the potential for
more critical fire weather conditions to southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  81  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  91  60  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  54  86  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          48  79  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  78  40  83 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         54  84  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           51  87  53  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

&&

$$

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