Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
048
FXUS64 KMAF 261845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Summer mid/upper level circulation continues to be dominated by
the presence of the subtropical ridge. Today the ridge is to the
north and easterly mid/upper level flow is evident on 12Z MAF
sounding and water vapor imagery. Water vapor indicates that the
mid level theta-e ridge axis is well to the w with even drier
mid/upper level air moving w into the Trans Pecos region. The
subtropical ridge will develop farther e into Tue resulting in
modest height falls. So Monday will be probably be the last of the
hottest days experienced lately and Monday`s temps will only be a
degree or 2 cooler than today. Through thickess/layer temp
considerations (hypsometric) a decreasing trend is evident,
especially as seen time series of said thickess/layer temps into
next Fri. It will still be hot, just not as hot. NAEFS/GEFS
ensemble depiction of cooling is seen in the decrease of 7h temps
from the 3rd +standard deviation to normal to +1. Finally, MOS
guidance depicts this as well. Even though temps cool some we
don`t expect any precip across the PB thru at least Thur, low
order slight chance/chance PoPs will be confined to the
mtns/adjacent plains. The subtropical ridge will build w-nw by
late in the week/weekend which may result in a brief up tick in
PoPs across n-nw PB then. Looking at the 6-10/8-14 day 5h height
anomalies there`s an indication of broad mid level ridge axis
slightly to the w suggesting more dry wx is likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  99  74  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    74 102  73 100  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                      76 101  79  99  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 100  74  99  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  93  69  92  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                       70  98  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       64  92  63  90  /  20  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74 100  74  99  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      76  99  75  98  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                        76 104  74 102  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.