Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 041116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

See aviation discussion below.


A large and strong upper level storm system across the western
half of the nation will generate periods of showers and
thunderstorms at a majority of the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals this afternoon through tonight. When there is
not precipitation, VFR conditions are expected. Mainly TEMPO MVFR
visibilities are expected at the majority of the terminals in
periodic showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/

Current water vapor imagery shows a large plume of moisture
streaming northeast out of the eastern Pacific over Mexico and
into eastern New Mexico and west Texas this morning. The GFS is
showing PWATs of 1.25-1.5 inches associated with this plume which
is very high for this time of year. This combined with an easterly
upsloping wind could cause widespread rainfall amounts of up to an
inch in the mountains with isolated amounts to 2 to 3 inches in a
short period of time. This is on top of rains that have already
fallen across much of the area west of the Pecos River so have
issued a Flash Flood Watch for today and tonight.

This rainfall is taking some attention away from a weak cold front
that has also slid into the Permian Basin and is currently near
the I-20 corridor. Air behind the front is about 10 degrees cooler
than ahead so it will be felt as it moves through though it is
really losing steam and may not make much more of a southward push
before stalling and eventually lifting back to the north.
Convergence along the front may add a little lift to enhance
rainfall the next 24 hours.

Rain chances diminish some Saturday as a weak upper ridge develops
but rain will redevelop beginning Tuesday but especially Wednesday
and Thursday as a large upper level low moves across the
southwestern U.S. and into the southern Plains. All models are in
good agreement that the low center will be near El Paso Thursday
morning which would be a very good location for producing
widespread precipitation across our area. The low could also get
cutoff from the steering flow and meander for a few days so this
time period will also have to be closely monitored for the
potential for flash flooding.



NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


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