Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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235
FXUS64 KMAF 281100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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