Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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011
FXUS64 KMAF 280911
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...Satl imagery shows the
monsoon in full bloom with convection in the Sierra Madre
Occidental along the Chihuahua/Sonora border and the Sonoran
Desert in Mexico. Satl imagery is also hinting at a subtle
circulation south of Big Bend along the Chihuahua/Coahuila border.
KMAF radar is showing scattered light showers along and south/
southwest of the Trans Pecos moving westward.

Models are in general agreement placing the subtropical ridge over
the four corners region. This will bring a deep layer easterly
flow to the area with the best chance of convection today along
the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis Mtns. The high resolution HRRR and
RAP13 models do bring convection into the Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin from the east/northeast early this aftn as a weak
vort max rotates in. Have kept slt chc pops today in the Plains.
With the clouds and possible convection temps will be several
degrees below normal.

Models are in general agreement in slowly building the ridge
south and east the remainder of the week and thru the weekend.
This will keep the majority...if not all...of the convection along
the Western and Southern Mtns with weak moist upslope flow and
intense heating. The H85 thermal ridge will also shift east into
NM and West TX. This will bring temps close to the century mark
over the weekend into early next week across the Permian Basin/
Low Rolling Plains...close to 105 in the Trans Pecos/Rio Grande
Valley...and the 90s in the mtns.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  92  71 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         93  74  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  65  85  66 /  40  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  67  92  67 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  85  60 /  50  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         90  70  93  71 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33

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