Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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718
FXUS64 KMAF 181732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions for the rest of the afternoon with S to SE winds
around 5-15 mph and a few higher gusts. Lightning could occur at
some sites, but not confident enough to mention any TS and will
choose to amend if needed. MVFR/IFR conditions will return to most
TAF sites overnight around 06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An area of rainfall has persisted across the Stockton Plateau and
Big Bend Area overnight, corresponding with continued moisture
return and enhanced lift under a midlevel trough. Most of the area
today, with the exception of higher terrain to the west, will see
dewpoints well into the 60s, with temperatures expected to range
from around 80 degrees to around 90 degrees, several degrees
cooler than yesterday due to increased moisture and cloudcover.
Given the continued presence of the midlevel trough and ample low
and midlevel moisture, thunderstorm chances will expand
northwestward this afternoon, with the best chance of storms
roughly along and east of a line extending from near Hobbs to
north of Van Horn. Precipitable water values this afternoon will
climb to around 1 inch west to around 2 inches across southeastern
zones, which is roughly 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year per GEFS and NAEFS anomalies. Thus, the
primary threat with storms today and into tonight will be locally
heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flash flooding.
Flooding concerns will increase over areas that have received
recent rainfall, as well as any locations where cell training
occurs. While a few storms may become strong, shear is minimal,
thus severe weather is not expected.

A lull in precipitation is expected for much of the area on Friday
as the instability axis shifts to the east, focusing rain
chances over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures Friday will also rebound several degrees, but should
still remain below normal. Model guidance has come into better
agreement regarding the front that is expected to move through the
area this weekend, with solutions indicating the front will move
into the northern Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico Plains
by early Saturday afternoon, and progress south of the Pecos
River by Saturday evening. Thunderstorm chances will increase with
the front as moisture will remain entrenched over the area, with
locally heavy rainfall continuing to be the primary concern.
Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler, with highs
Sunday only expected to be in the 70s and 80s. The cooler weather
looks to stick around through midweek next week, with only a slow
moderation in temperatures expected. Rain chances will also linger
into next week, supported by subtle disturbances in the
southwesterly flow aloft as well as a weak low and associated
subtle vorticity maxima progged to move north across eastern zones
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  71  89 /  30  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       66  94  69  90 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         72  89  72  92 /  50  40  20  40
Fort Stockton                  67  89  69  92 /  30  20  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  89  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          65  90  65  86 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          57  84  58  86 /  30  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Odessa                         70  91  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Wink                           69  95  72  92 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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