Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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723
FXUS64 KMAF 161556
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
956 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs across southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin today into this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing a light band of precipitation north of
Lamesa approaching the northern Permian Basin. Model soundings are
showing a mid level warm layer above 0C which is responsible for
reports out of Lubbock of freezing rain/drizzle and sleet. Areas
further north are seeing snow where the warm layer has eroded and
deep layer lift is present. Cannot rule out advisory level ice and
snow accumulations from Hobbs to Snyder, but the moisture is very
shallow right now and lift is weak so precip amounts the next
several hours will likely be very light. Later today we get a
brief shot of stronger lift but colder air filtering in will
change the p-type to snow and am not sure we will get an inch so
will not issue an advisory at this time. Will handle any winter
weather issues with social media posts for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

A cold front is moving into the area with winds becoming gusty out
of the north to northeast behind the front.  Low clouds are also
moving in behind the front with low ceilings reaching MAF very
shortly.  There is a chance of light rain and snow this afternoon
with possible reduction in visibilities.  The precipitation and low
ceilings should clear out of the area around 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A complicated scenario is in store for the first period, as an upper
lvl trough which WV currently places near the Four Corners digs SE
and moves thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon.
Ahead of this feature, as noted in sfc analysis and on area radars,
a cold front is moving thru the region.  Fropa at KMAF was at around
0830Z...2-3 hours ahead of what models were forecasting 24 hours
ago.  As the upper trough nears the area later today, models develop
precip ahead of this feature this afternoon, w/precip type being
very dependent on CAA.  Main concerns will be the nrn Permian Basin
and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  Forecast NAM soundings start out cold,
but w/the column saturated only in the PBL...too warm for ice to be
present.  Min temps in the saturated layer are cold enough for
FZRA...but the cold layer looks just thick enough (~750m) to favor
IP over FZRA.  As the afternoon progresses, deeper CAA arrives,
saturating the column up enough for a transition to -SN.  QPFs keep
snow accumulations under an inch, but slippery roadways and reduced
vsbys may be a concern, and will be addressed in the HWO.  Frequent
updates will be possible, as a degree or two difference in the
soundings and reality will call for a different precip type.

Otherwise, a hard freeze follows overnight, but temps begin warming
Monday as the sfc ridge slides east and return flow resumes Monday
afternoon.  This AMS is not as potent as the last, and temps should
rebound to near-normal by Thursday afternoon as NW flow aloft
transitions to zonal.  A weak front is forecast to stall out in the
nrn zones Wednesday afternoon, but looks to have a negligible effect
on temps.  A stronger front arrives Thursday night, w/the ECMWF/CMC
coming in much stronger than the GFS/DGEX.  For now, the consensus
seems to be to keep temps near normal and grids mostly dry into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  26  39  24  /  40  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              38  27  43  27  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                40  25  44  29  /  60  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  32  49  28  /   0  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  26  47  27  /  10  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  21  41  28  /  60  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  23  41  25  /  50  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   62  19  48  16  /  20  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  24  42  24  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  25  42  24  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    42  28  46  24  /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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