Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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351
FXUS64 KMAF 282259
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
459 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest NAM buffer
soundings put fropa at KHOB at around 14Z...and KPEQ at 18Z,
w/gusty post-frontal conditions the rest of the day. Cigs behind
the front should have bases 6 kft agl or higher.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Models continue to show the next upper level low moving into
northwestern Mexico by the weekend bringing widespread
precipitation to our area. Rainfall will develop around the Van
Horn area late Thursday and spread east Friday into Saturday.
Vertical sounding profiles still show temperatures too warm for
snow for most areas, with the best chances for snow being in the
Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwestern
Permian Basin. There is some disagreement between guidance and raw
model data forecast dewpoints and temperatures which could affect
the precipitation type. Guidance suggests temperatures will be cold
enough to support snow for roughly all areas north of I-20 while
the raw data is too warm for snow. Given the large amount of
precipitation it may be difficult for dewpoints to drop low enough
for evaporative cooling to lower the temperatures so this forecast
continues with mostly rain. Models have backed off slightly on QPF
amounts, but PWATs double the norm for this time of year mean some
locations could receive in excess of an inch of rain. An upper low
in January 2013 brought over an inch of rain and some flooding to
Midland so it is definitely possible. The warm temperatures and
wet ground will make it difficult for any snow that falls to
accumulate, but one to two inches would not be out of the
question, especially in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains.

The moisture will push off to the east on Sunday bringing an end
to the rain while the upper low slowly meanders into central
Mexico. A modest ridge will develop over the western U.S. keeping
us in northwesterly flow and allowing for only a slow warm up
early next week with highs reaching near normal by Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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