Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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515
FXUS64 KMAF 011732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours as most terminals will
continue to see VFR flight conditions. Currently have a 3-4kft cloud
deck over the region along with gusty NE winds thanks to a strong
cold front that moved through early this morning. FST is the only
terminal reporting MVFR cigs but should return to VFR by mid
afternoon. Could see brief periods of light rain today but not
widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAF. Thunder may be
possible later this afternoon particularly near FST however
confidence is too low attm to include mention. Otherwise, winds will
continue to diminish through the afternoon.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49

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