Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 310502

1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015


See 06z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/


WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and
mid-lvl LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable
for a hail threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.
We`ll put a mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for
this for Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the
area to the east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.






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