Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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365
FXUS64 KMAF 241652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

PERSISTENCE RULES AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS WEST INTO THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW A
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD DEVELOPING, W/BASES 4.5-6 KFT AGL. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN OUT WEST, BUT CLR OF ANY
TERMINALS. A FEW HOURS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE ERN TERMINALS, GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER CU
FIELD SIMILAR TO TODAY`S BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST DURING
THE DAY.  THE CENTER OF RIDGE WILL REFORM BACK TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY NEAR 4 CORNERS REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST.  THIS LOOKS TO PUT
THE AREA INTO NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW CLIMB THROUGH FRIDAY AS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRIDGE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY SO IT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WIND COMES AROUND TO THE
EAST.  WARMER TEMPS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  A SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
UPSLOPE FLOW... AND GIVEN GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.  MODELS DEVELOP DECENT AMOUNTS OF QPF SO THOSE WHO SEE
STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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