Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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829
FXUS64 KMAF 261049
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility could affect KCNM, KHOB and perhaps
KPEQ and KINK through 26/14Z.  However, more high clouds may
spread over these terminals and limit low cloud/fog development.
Farther east, KFST and KMAF appear in line for showers, if not a
thunderstorm, this morning.  Expect VFR conditions at all area
terminals this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could affect terminals
again this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  71  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       86  66  88  68 /  40  20  30  20
Dryden                         91  71  92  72 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  87  67  89  68 /  40  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  81  64 /  50  20  30  20
Hobbs                          83  64  86  65 /  30  20  20  20
Marfa                          80  60  81  61 /  60  30  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         87  69  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           88  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29

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