Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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441
FXUS64 KMAF 160512
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1109 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
light and variable overnight then become easterly to southeasterly
by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

UPDATE...

Temperatures are falling quickly over northern Lea Co and the
Marfa Plateau and are already near their forecasted lows. Have
updated to lower overnight temps a few degrees at these locations.
Also increased the cloud cover over the area as cirrus spreads
across the area from the west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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