Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 092227

527 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014


See Aviation Discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Southerly return flow
will begin veering overnight as a 45+kt llj develops north of
KMAF, in response to an approaching cold front, w/sfc flow
expected to be out of the NW by the end of the forecast period.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 7-9 kft agl.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014/


Warm temperatures have returned after a pleasant last few days. It
looks like one more hot day tomorrow before cooler temps and better
rain chances arrive.

Our area remains under a stubborn upper level ridge, albeit much
weaker than it has been over the past couple of weeks. A sfc low was
strengthening this afternoon over SE CO with a sfc trough extending
south across the TX Panhandle and W TX. A thermal ridge has
developed along and east of this same axis leading to the above
normal temperatures across the region this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are possible along the trough axis over SE NM, the
western Permian Basin and the Guadalupe Mnts this afternoon, but
coverage will be isolated at best.

A shortwave crossing the Plains this afternoon will send a front
south, reaching the northern Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon. This
will have a large affect on high temperatures. Behind the front,
temperatures may actually level off or fall slightly, while ahead of
the front we are looking at near record highs! Later shifts will
continue to refine the forecast, but for now will keep the front
just north of the central Basin at peak heating. Compressional
heating ahead of the boundary may allow Midland Intl Airport to
near its record high for Sept 10 of 101 set back in 2000. We may
see isolated convection develop during the afternoon in the Davis
and Glass Mnts and then across the Permian Basin along the cold
front by evening. By Thursday the front settles along the I-10
corridor with showers and storms forming along and north of the
boundary by afternoon. Heavy rain will be a possibility with these
storms as we remain under weak flow aloft and moisture pools along
the front. Temperatures Thursday will cool significantly behind
this first front with highs likely 15-20 degrees lower than what
we will see tomorrow.

Attention then turns to a strong early Fall cold front expected to
arrive Friday. A forceful shortwave trough will dig into the Central
Plains Thursday with unseasonably cold air behind it. Snow is even
expected with this system across the Northern Rockies! We won`t get
cold enough for snow, but this front will send a shock to the
system. High temperatures will likely occur early in the day
Friday and then fall behind the front which is expected to reach
the northern Basin by morning. CAA and strong northerly winds along
with scattered showers will make for a rather chilly Friday
afternoon. Will need to monitor for possible high winds with the
front at Guadalupe Pass as the pressure gradient tightens.
Saturday looks cool and mostly cloudy before temperatures begin to
warm early next week.






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