Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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349
FXUS64 KMAF 181917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A cutoff low over Colorado will translate eastward today, open up
on Sunday, then eject northeastward through the Midwest Monday as
it becomes entrained in the northern jet stream.  Westerly flow
aloft over the region today will transition to northwesterly and
weaken as a result.  Aside from any residual thunderstorms over the
Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry
through Sunday as moist low level air will be shunted eastward.  A
cold front will also drop into the area Sunday and keep temperatures
seasonal, but there does not appear to be enough moisture for any
precipitation.  A surface ridge will drop into the area Sunday
night, but move quickly eastward Monday due to persistent northwest
flow aloft.  There may be enough moisture return Monday afternoon
for a few thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains, with any convection
spreading into the Lower Trans Pecos Monday night on the return
moisture axis.  There does not appear to be much support for
convection in the mid levels from any passing shortwave trough, so
PoPs will be low.

Into the extended, a split flow regime aloft will develop with a
southern stream shortwave trough gradually progressing eastward
across the Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico through mid next week,
and into the area late next week.  A dryline will set up over the
area Tuesday with diurnal fluctuations occurring thereafter through
weeks end.  As temperatures warm above normal, will include a
slight chance of thunderstorms most days from Tuesday through
Friday.  The PoPs will be low these days until we get a little
closer to those time frames due to a variety of solutions on the
locations of the dryline, discrete shortwave troughs ejecting over
the region ahead of the ua trough, and the eventual passage of the
trough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will be dry today with most places across the CWA
experiencing minimum RH values of 15 percent or less.  Winds will
pick up this afternoon across the area with southeast New Mexico and
the Guadalupe Mountains experiencing winds of at least 20 mph.  Due
to these conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico through early this
evening.  Winds will decrease around sunset and RH values will
increase with a cold front moving into the area Sunday morning, so
fire weather concerns will end after this evening.  Low RH values
will be along and south of the Pecos River Sunday afternoon but wind
speeds will be much lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  75  46  75  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  78  52  76  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                49  77  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  87  58  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  80  50  76  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  73  44  73  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   47  72  43  74  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   40  73  41  75  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  78  51  75  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  78  48  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    49  80  49  78  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/67

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