Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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852
FXUS64 KMAF 231653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through this evening.  Low
cloud and fog may develop at some, if not all, terminals by 24/12Z.
Since mid and high cloud appear fairly widespread, and would temper
fog and low cloud development, and it is late in the forecast
period, will not make a mention in this issuance.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014/

For the first time in over a week, the KMAF WSR-88D is in clear
air mode, w/closest precip being -SHRA in SW NM. KMAF 00Z RAOB
came in w/a PWAT of 1.31", the lowest in 10 days, w/models keeping
this downward drying trend going under broad, weak upper ridging
to the west. w/the exception of the NAM, models continue tapering
off precip activity today, confining it to the
Sacramentos/Guadalupes and adjacent plains. W/this in mind, we`ve
decided to scale the FFA back to Eddy County and the Guadalupes,
where the bulk of lingering convection is expected, and extend it
thru this evening. QPF doesn`t look all that impressive, but
w/saturated soils and consequent low FFG values, it won`t take
much to aggravate current flood concerns there. River gages show
the Pecos and tributaries in NM continue slowly receding,
including Dark Canyon. Further downstream however, Red Bluff
Reservoir remains a concern at 100% capacity. W/estimated inflows
of 22K cfs, flooding downstream to I-20 remains a concern, w/the
gage at Orla (ORLT2) on the uptick again. Further down the river,
debris appears to be making readings unrepresentative at the Pecos
gage (PCST2), and NWS meteorologists will be onsite later today to
survey conditions there. In the meantime, areal FLWs will continue
to cover this event.

Otherwise, temps will rebound little, if at all, through the
weekend.  MOS numbers try to warm things up too quickly, perhaps not
considering saturated soils.  W/expected extensive cloud cover,
we`ll continue w/a narrower diurnal spread, staying on the cooler
side of highs, and the warmer end of lows.  By midweek, models bring
a weak, inverted upper trough into central Texas, and this will help
keep a lid on temps as well.  It is not until Sunday afternoon that
forecast soundings and H85 temp trends suggest abv-normal temps
return to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/44

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