Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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240
FXUS64 KMAF 260530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low clouds early morning and thunderstorms at different periods
through Sunday. Currently have persistent SE winds across most
locations with some light rain showing up on radar just east of HOB.
Hard to tell where the low clouds are developing tonight given the
extensive mid/high level cloud shield across the area. For now,
kept mention of MVFR at MAF at around 09Z and added mention of low
cigs at HOB around 11Z. Will continue to monitor trends and amend
if needed. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday during the
day however not exactly clear on when and where this activity will
develop so will keep mention out of the TAFs for now and make
adjustments later if needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  93  69  90 /  20  10   0  20
Carlsbad                       70  94  67  93 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         74  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  93  67  92 /  20  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  86  64  85 /  30  30  10  10
Hobbs                          66  91  67  90 /  30  20  10  20
Marfa                          62  87  61  85 /  30  40  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         71  94  71  92 /  20  20   0  10
Wink                           71  95  70  93 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/

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