Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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975
FXUS64 KMAF 282011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  87  49  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  94  54  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  88  46  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  94  56  78  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  91  50  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  52  75  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  86  46  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   40  83  41  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  91  49  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  91  52  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    46  91  53  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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