Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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528
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southerly winds will affect all TAF sites through this
afternoon.  A low level jet will likely keep winds gusty through the
evening at all but Carlsbad and Pecos.  MVFR ceilings will develop
over central Texas overnight, but should stay east of all West Texas
TAF sites.  A cold front will move into the area Thursday morning,
but expect VFR conditions to prevail.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Temperatures this morning are much warmer than those from yesterday
with stronger winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High
temperatures this afternoon will warm up to near normal as a surface
trough develops across the area.  A broad upper level trough will
move over the Central/Northern Plains.  As this upper trough moves
to the north of the region, it will send a weak cold front through
the area on Thursday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

Another upper trough over southern California will approach the
region on Friday.  Low level moisture will increase across the area
beginning Friday morning resulting in a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the far eastern CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible areawide but most likely across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon as upper
level lift increases over the region.  As the upper trough
approaches and moves over the region on Saturday, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increases as upper level lift and
moisture increase.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values near 50 kts.

Thunderstorms will move out of the CWA on Sunday with temperatures
warming up as a surface trough strengthens across the area.  A
portion of the upper level trough may stay over the area and provide
enough lift for thunderstorms to develop on Monday but do not have
much confidence in this happening.  The models develop another upper
level trough that moves toward the region by the middle part of next
week.  Temperatures will remain above normal for next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05/80

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