Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 282045

245 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2014


WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved into central Texas, and
earlier fog/stratus has burned off, leaving CAVU conditions over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Sfc analysis shows a leeside
trough has developed on the Front Range, inducing SW flow this
afternoon, for a warmup of around 10F over yesterday`s temps.
Monday promises to be even warmer--just above normal--as flow aloft
quickly returns to SW as the next upper trough breaks out of British
Columbia and begins digging down the west coast.  Ahead of this
feature will be an Arctic ams originating in far NW Canada, w/models
bringing the cold front thru KMAF just after 00Z Tuesday.  Fropa in
the Guadalupes will likely reach high wind criteria, and we`ll
mention this in the HWO for now.

Low-lvl winds will begin veering after fropa, w/isentropic upglide
beginning over the NE zones sometime Tuesday morning.  The Western
Low Rolling Plains look to stay blo freezing throughout the day
Tuesday, w/forecast soundings suggesting freezing rain/drizzle,
spreading south overnight into Wednesday.  Moisture for this event
looks shallow, w/forecast soundings drying out above 750mb or so, so
no snow is expected.  Instead, soundings portray RA or FZRA,
transitioning over to IP at times, especially Wed/Wed night.  As is
typical, forecast soundings show the cold layer blo -6C right at
around 2500 feet...the transition zone betwixt freezing rain and
sleet.  What`s more, forecast soundings between models call for
different precip types, e.g., at 12Z Wednesday, the NAM calls for
sleet at KMAF, whereas the GFS is shallower w/the cold air, and
leaning more towards freezing rain.  For these reasons, confidence
is not high enough attm to specify one or the other, so we`ve
mentioned FRZA or IP Wed and Wed night most areas except the far
south, which should stay warm enough for rain.  Sfc flow veers back
to SE Thursday, pushing a weak warm front into the area, w/forecast
soundings suggesting a transition to rain sometime during the
afternoon.  The upper trough arrives Friday, w/models in pretty good
agreement placing it over SE NM by 00Z Saturday, w/the DGEX the only
outlier.  This will result in a chance of convection areawide
Friday, w/temps warm enough to rule out any wintry precip.  A
scouring west wind Friday afternoon will shunt all moisture and
precip east of the area, w/temps almost back to normal by

Of course, w/forecast soundings on the bubble between precip types,
everything remains very much in flux and subject to change.  Models
have underestimated cold snaps earlier this fall, so hopefully they
are are w/this one, as well, and New Year`s will see more IP than


ANDREWS TX                 30  57  27  29  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              30  60  29  31  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                31  56  29  32  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  34  61  38  46  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           33  63  30  37  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  52  25  27  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   28  52  26  34  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   22  56  27  43  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  60  26  31  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  30  58  27  34  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    29  61  30  37  /   0   0   0  20






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