Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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085
FXUS64 KMAF 041112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  50  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           87  52  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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