Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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878
FXUS64 KMAF 280938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
438 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will back today as return flow surges NW into West Texas.
Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline along the eastern fringes of
the CWA, and this should begin moving back into the area
w/strengthening flow, first thru KFST, then KMAF, then KINK/KPEQ.
Convective temps will be reached behind the dryline as it moves
NW, resulting in high-based cu 8-13 kft agl. A 40+kt LLJ is
forecast to develop near the end of the forecast period, ushering
in a stratus deck after 06Z. Buffer soundings suggest a few hours
of LIFR cigs at KFST, IFR at KHOB/KINK, and MVFR at KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Central Plains with another upper trough
developing just off the southern coast of California.  The area is
under westerly flow aloft with a dryline expected this afternoon
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.  There is a
chance of storms across this area beginning this afternoon.  Due to
good CAPE, bulk shear, and lapse rates, some of the storms today
could become strong to severe.  Upper lift is expected to increase
this evening into tonight, so strong to severe storms will be more
likely then.  Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be
slightly warmer than yesterday but still near normal values.

Rain and storm chances increase across the area on Sunday as the
dryline moves back toward the western Permian Basin.  Temperatures
are also expected to cool to slightly below normal with an increase
in moisture and cloud cover.  Similar to today, the storm parameters
look good but upper lift will be lacking until Sunday evening
allowing for another chance of strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.  Storm chances continue into Monday
with the dryline backed up to the Upper Trans Pecos.  Temperatures
are expected to be near normal for Monday with highs ranging from
the mid 80s to mid 90s across the CWA except the Big Bend and Rio
Grande Valley areas.  Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday
except the dryline will likely be further east into the Permian
Basin.  Precipitation chances increase for Wednesday as an upper
trough moves over the Midwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to cool into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Permian
Basin.  Temperatures will remain below normal into next weekend with
a chance of precipitation in the forecast every day through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       92  61  93  60 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         91  73  88  71 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  91  68 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 87  61  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          91  63  86  63 /   0  20  40  20
Marfa                          87  51  87  54 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Odessa                         93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Wink                           94  69  93  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44

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