Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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098
FXUS64 KMAF 231048
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Light fog and brief low cigs are possible across the Permian Basin
into SE NM this morning before dissipating just after sunrise. A
few storms are possible at KCNM this afternoon...otherwise VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

For the first time in over a week, the KMAF WSR-88D is in clear air
mode, w/closest precip being -SHRA in SW NM.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in
w/a PWAT of 1.31", the lowest in 10 days, w/models keeping this
downward drying trend going under broad, weak upper ridging to the
west.  w/the exception of the NAM, models continue tapering off
precip activity today, confining it to the Sacramentos/Guadalupes
and adjacent plains.  W/this in mind, we`ve decided to scale the FFA
back to Eddy County and the Guadalupes, where the bulk of lingering
convection is expected, and extend it thru this evening.  QPF
doesn`t look all that impressive, but w/saturated soils and
consequent low FFG values, it won`t take much to aggravate current
flood concerns there.  River gages show the Pecos and tributaries in
NM continue slowly receding, including Dark Canyon.  Further
downstream however, Red Bluff Reservoir remains a concern at 100%
capacity.  W/estimated inflows of 22K cfs, flooding downstream to
I-20 remains a concern, w/the gage at Orla (ORLT2) on the uptick
again.  Further down the river, debris appears to be making
readings unrepresentative at the Pecos gage (PCST2), and NWS
meteorologists will be onsite later today to survey conditions
there.  In the meantime, areal FLWs will continue to cover this
event.

Otherwise, temps will rebound little, if at all, through the
weekend.  MOS numbers try to warm things up too quickly, perhaps not
considering saturated soils.  W/expected extensive cloud cover,
we`ll continue w/a narrower diurnal spread, staying on the cooler
side of highs, and the warmer end of lows.  By midweek, models bring
a weak, inverted upper trough into central Texas, and this will help
keep a lid on temps as well.  It is not until Sunday afternoon that
forecast soundings and H85 temp trends suggest abv-normal temps
return to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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