Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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091
FXUS64 KMAF 041706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with gusty winds this afternoon decreasing by
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
952
FXUS64 KMAF 040526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
742
FXUS64 KMAF 031922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  90  72  93  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  97  69  95  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      73  95  75  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               69  95  70  96  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  67  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       64  90  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       54  88  57  89  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  92  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        71  97  72  96  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/67
909
FXUS64 KMAF 031718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Much like the last couple of
days, gusty SE winds expected through the afternoon then speeds
diminish this evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending up from Mexico... across TX... into the
Southern Plains states still in control of area wx.  Will have
increasing high clouds drifting over the area as Pacific moisture
gets pulled around the west side of the upper ridge.  An upper
trough will move ashore the NW coast today and dig down into the
Great Basin but will not dislodge the ridge... so warm and dry wx
will continue.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend
into next week.  Highs mostly in the 90s... lows mainly in the 60s
to lower 70s.  Locations along the Rio Grande may exceed 100 the
next few days.  GFS does show a cold front moving down into the area
next Thursday so some cooler temperatures are possible late next
week.

September is the wettest month of the year at MAF.  However only
had a few showers yesterday over the Guadalupes and west of Van
Horn.  Could see a few showers or storms over the Guadalupes
southward into the Marfa Plateau this afternoon and over the
higher elevations again Friday.  Low rain chances continue into next
week.  The best chance of rain looks to be with the front next Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
038
FXUS64 KMAF 031134
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southeast
winds could gust to 15-20KT this afternoon, with gusts diminishing
after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending up from Mexico... across TX... into the
Southern Plains states still in control of area wx.  Will have
increasing high clouds drifting over the area as Pacific moisture
gets pulled around the west side of the upper ridge.  An upper
trough will move ashore the NW coast today and dig down into the
Great Basin but will not dislodge the ridge... so warm and dry wx
will continue.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend
into next week.  Highs mostly in the 90s... lows mainly in the 60s
to lower 70s.  Locations along the Rio Grande may exceed 100 the
next few days.  GFS does show a cold front moving down into the area
next Thursday so some cooler temperatures are possible late next
week.

September is the wettest month of the year at MAF.  However only
had a few showers yesterday over the Guadalupes and west of Van
Horn.  Could see a few showers or storms over the Guadalupes
southward into the Marfa Plateau this afternoon and over the
higher elevations again Friday.  Low rain chances continue into next
week.  The best chance of rain looks to be with the front next Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
227
FXUS64 KMAF 030521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period, with gusts to 20KT possible Thursday afternoon
which will diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistence rules.  WV
imagery shows an upper trough along the upper Texas Gulf coast,
making an intrusion into a ridge otherwise centered over Texas.
Models take the trough south of Texas by late Thursday, and shear it
out, allowing the ridge to re-establish.  This will result in
gradually increasing thicknesses into next week, peaking sometime
around Monday.  Temps should stay above-normal thru the extended,
although forecast soundings and past model performance suggest
staying toward the lwr to mid range of MOS numbers.

As for rain, the theta-e ridge continues to lie NW of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, oriented SW-NE.  This will tend to favor the
higher terrain for chances of convection each day, as minor
disturbances move thru SW flow aloft.  Until the ridge breaks down,
this looks to persist.  However, models hint at flattening the ridge
next week w/a series of troughs across the upper CONUS, possibly
opening a window for better chances of convection starting Mon/Tue
under zonal flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
492
FXUS64 KMAF 022303
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will remain the rule across the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistence rules.  WV
imagery shows an upper trough along the upper Texas Gulf coast,
making an intrusion into a ridge otherwise centered over Texas.
Models take the trough south of Texas by late Thursday, and shear it
out, allowing the ridge to re-establish.  This will result in
gradually increasing thicknesses into next week, peaking sometime
around Monday.  Temps should stay above-normal thru the extended,
although forecast soundings and past model performance suggest
staying toward the lwr to mid range of MOS numbers.

As for rain, the theta-e ridge continues to lie NW of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, oriented SW-NE.  This will tend to favor the
higher terrain for chances of convection each day, as minor
disturbances move thru SW flow aloft.  Until the ridge breaks down,
this looks to persist.  However, models hint at flattening the ridge
next week w/a series of troughs across the upper CONUS, possibly
opening a window for better chances of convection starting Mon/Tue
under zonal flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
575
FXUS64 KMAF 021945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistence rules.  WV
imagery shows an upper trough along the upper Texas Gulf coast,
making an intrusion into a ridge otherwise centered over Texas.
Models take the trough south of Texas by late Thursday, and shear it
out, allowing the ridge to re-establish.  This will result in
gradually increasing thicknesses into next week, peaking sometime
around Monday.  Temps should stay above-normal thru the extended,
although forecast soundings and past model performance suggest
staying toward the lwr to mid range of MOS numbers.

As for rain, the theta-e ridge continues to lie NW of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, oriented SW-NE.  This will tend to favor the
higher terrain for chances of convection each day, as minor
disturbances move thru SW flow aloft.  Until the ridge breaks down,
this looks to persist.  However, models hint at flattening the ridge
next week w/a series of troughs across the upper CONUS, possibly
opening a window for better chances of convection starting Mon/Tue
under zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  93  71  91  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    65  96  68  94  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  99  71  95  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  95  68  94  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  88  68  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       63  90  66  88  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  90  58  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        67  93  69  91  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      71  93  69  91  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        68  97  70  95  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99
915
FXUS64 KMAF 021705
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Gusty SE winds once again
through the afternoon then speeds diminish this evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over W TX/SE NM this morning extends from AZ to
the East Coast.  An upper trough moving onto the NW Coast will move
east but be unable to dislodge the ridge.  Thus expect little change
in the ongoing pattern over the coming week with warm and dry wx.

Have some lingering cloud cover over the western counties this
morning as Pacific moisture is pulled around the west side of the
ridge.  At the surface southerly flow will continue with dewpts
mainly in the 50s.

With persistent upper ridge over the area see no fronts in the
coming week... so above normal temps will continue in the mid to
upper 90s. Have warmed high temps today closer to persistence.
With days getting shorter and slightly drier air lows are once
again consistently making it down into the 60s for most of the
region... with 50s at MRF.

Only had one or two small showers with one storm yesterday near
Valentine.  May see a few afternoon/evening storms just barely into
the area from the Guadalupes southward to the Rio Grande.  Could see
some again Thursday afternoon similar location.  A low chance of
storms will continue through the extended forecast mainly for the
higher elevations.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
933
FXUS64 KMAF 021141
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
641 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
scattered to broken MVFR stratus deck is slowly advecting NW
through the Rio Grande Valley and into the far lower Pecos River
Valley, though currently do not expect it to reach KMAF or KFST.
Southeast winds will continue through the next 24 hours, with
gusts up to 15-20kt this afternoon, which will diminish after
sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over W TX/SE NM this morning extends from AZ to
the East Coast.  An upper trough moving onto the NW Coast will move
east but be unable to dislodge the ridge.  Thus expect little change
in the ongoing pattern over the coming week with warm and dry wx.

Have some lingering cloud cover over the western counties this
morning as Pacific moisture is pulled around the west side of the
ridge.  At the surface southerly flow will continue with dewpts
mainly in the 50s.

With persistent upper ridge over the area see no fronts in the
coming week... so above normal temps will continue in the mid to
upper 90s. Have warmed high temps today closer to persistence.
With days getting shorter and slightly drier air lows are once
again consistently making it down into the 60s for most of the
region... with 50s at MRF.

Only had one or two small showers with one storm yesterday near
Valentine.  May see a few afternoon/evening storms just barely into
the area from the Guadalupes southward to the Rio Grande.  Could see
some again Thursday afternoon similar location.  A low chance of
storms will continue through the extended forecast mainly for the
higher elevations.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
028
FXUS64 KMAF 020818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
318 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over W TX/SE NM this morning extends from AZ to
the East Coast.  An upper trough moving onto the NW Coast will move
east but be unable to dislodge the ridge.  Thus expect little change
in the ongoing pattern over the coming week with warm and dry wx.

Have some lingering cloud cover over the western counties this
morning as Pacific moisture is pulled around the west side of the
ridge.  At the surface southerly flow will continue with dewpts
mainly in the 50s.

With persistent upper ridge over the area see no fronts in the
coming week... so above normal temps will continue in the mid to
upper 90s. Have warmed high temps today closer to persistence.
With days getting shorter and slightly drier air lows are once
again consistently making it down into the 60s for most of the
region... with 50s at MRF.

Only had one or two small showers with one storm yesterday near
Valentine.  May see a few afternoon/evening storms just barely into
the area from the Guadalupes southward to the Rio Grande.  Could see
some again Thursday afternoon similar location.  A low chance of
storms will continue through the extended forecast mainly for the
higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  67  93  69  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    97  65  96  66  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      98  70  96  72  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  68  95  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  68  88  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       92  63  91  64  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                       91  55  88  56  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        95  68  94  69  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      95  68  93  69  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        97  69  96  70  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
379
FXUS64 KMAF 020517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
The only caveat is the potential for MVFR ceilings to develop
around daybreak affecting KMAF and KFST. Currently have maintained
the TEMPO for KMAF, and have left mention out of KFST, but will
continue to monitor and reassess for the 12Z package. Otherwise,
southeast winds will continue, and could gust to around 15-20kt
Wednesday afternoon before diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains anchored over the region today with an upper
trough sitting just east over the SE half of TX. At the surface,
somewhat breezy conditions in place this afternoon as lee troughing
extends south through E NM and W TX. Expect gusts to diminish this
evening. Plenty of sunshine areawide allowing afternoon temperatures
to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s by 2pm CDT. Should see most
location reach into the low to mid 90s by the end of peak heating
today. Starting to see some cu developing near the Davis Mountains
via VIS satellite but so far it has remained quiet and rain-free.
Will keep mention of isolated storms possible through early evening
across these areas.

The upper ridge will slowly shift east through the week but continue
to maintain a fairly good grip on the region with little to no rain
chances for much of the area. The only exception may be for the
higher terrain regions to see a few isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain fairly constant and
near normal or slightly above normal with highs generally in the low
to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday through the
weekend, SW flow aloft on the western periphery of the upper ridge
may allow for a higher chance for thunderstorms near the mountain
regions and portions of SE NM during this time. For now, will only
continue slight chance PoPs for these areas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
096
FXUS64 KMAF 012322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail once again. Winds will quickly
decrease this evening with sunset, but will pick back up Wednesday
afternoon. Models are hinting at a low cloud deck invading the
Permian Basin by morning so have included a tempo at KMAF to
account for this possibility.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains anchored over the region today with an upper
trough sitting just east over the SE half of TX. At the surface,
somewhat breezy conditions in place this afternoon as lee troughing
extends south through E NM and W TX. Expect gusts to diminish this
evening. Plenty of sunshine areawide allowing afternoon temperatures
to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s by 2pm CDT. Should see most
location reach into the low to mid 90s by the end of peak heating
today. Starting to see some cu developing near the Davis Mountains
via VIS satellite but so far it has remained quiet and rain-free.
Will keep mention of isolated storms possible through early evening
across these areas.

The upper ridge will slowly shift east through the week but continue
to maintain a fairly good grip on the region with little to no rain
chances for much of the area. The only exception may be for the
higher terrain regions to see a few isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain fairly constant and
near normal or slightly above normal with highs generally in the low
to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday through the
weekend, SW flow aloft on the western periphery of the upper ridge
may allow for a higher chance for thunderstorms near the mountain
regions and portions of SE NM during this time. For now, will only
continue slight chance PoPs for these areas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
185
FXUS64 KMAF 011930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains anchored over the region today with an upper
trough sitting just east over the SE half of TX. At the surface,
somewhat breezy conditions in place this afternoon as lee troughing
extends south through E NM and W TX. Expect gusts to diminish this
evening. Plenty of sunshine areawide allowing afternoon temperatures
to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s by 2pm CDT. Should see most
location reach into the low to mid 90s by the end of peak heating
today. Starting to see some cu developing near the Davis Mountains
via VIS satellite but so far it has remained quiet and rain-free.
Will keep mention of isolated storms possible through early evening
across these areas.

The upper ridge will slowly shift east through the week but continue
to maintain a fairly good grip on the region with little to no rain
chances for much of the area. The only exception may be for the
higher terrain regions to see a few isolated thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain fairly constant and
near normal or slightly above normal with highs generally in the low
to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday through the
weekend, SW flow aloft on the western periphery of the upper ridge
may allow for a higher chance for thunderstorms near the mountain
regions and portions of SE NM during this time. For now, will only
continue slight chance PoPs for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  92  68  93  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    67  96  67  95  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      70  96  71  96  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  95  68  95  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  90  67  88  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       64  91  65  91  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       57  89  59  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  93  69  94  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      68  93  69  93  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        68  96  69  96  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/27
889
FXUS64 KMAF 011703
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be elevated with some gusts out of the southeast this
afternoon before weakening later this evening. There is a chance
of low ceilings coming over MAF around 12z and lasting to around
16z Wednesday; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over SE TX this morning extends west across the
region.  This ridge will remain over the area through the week. Late
in the week an upper trough will move in off the NW coast but will
do little to displace the ridge.  Thus expect a continuation of the
recent warm weather.

September has arrived but unseasonably warm temperatures expected
through the week.  With no change in the upper pattern do not see
any fronts moving through this week.  Normal highs for this time of
year are in the lower 90s for the Permian Basin... highs look to be
the mid 90s. May see a few temps near 100 along the Rio Grande. Have
raised temps today and Wednesday going closer to persistence.

Precip chances will continue to favor the higher elevations... added
isolated storms for this afternoon/evening.  COuld see a few storms
again Wednesday from the Guadalupe to the Davis mountains.  Rest of
the week looking pretty dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
904
FXUS64 KMAF 011117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with sustained 10-12KT southeasterly winds will
prevail through the forecast period. Winds could gust to around
15-20KT this afternoon, though any gusts will diminish quickly
after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over SE TX this morning extends west across the
region.  This ridge will remain over the area through the week. Late
in the week an upper trough will move in off the NW coast but will
do little to displace the ridge.  Thus expect a continuation of the
recent warm weather.

September has arrived but unseasonably warm temperatures expected
through the week.  With no change in the upper pattern do not see
any fronts moving through this week.  Normal highs for this time of
year are in the lower 90s for the Permian Basin... highs look to be
the mid 90s. May see a few temps near 100 along the Rio Grande. Have
raised temps today and Wednesday going closer to persistence.

Precip chances will continue to favor the higher elevations... added
isolated storms for this afternoon/evening.  COuld see a few storms
again Wednesday from the Guadalupe to the Davis mountains.  Rest of
the week looking pretty dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
008
FXUS64 KMAF 010826
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over SE TX this morning extends west across the
region.  This ridge will remain over the area through the week. Late
in the week an upper trough will move in off the NW coast but will
do little to displace the ridge.  Thus expect a continuation of the
recent warm weather.

September has arrived but unseasonably warm temperatures expected
through the week.  With no change in the upper pattern do not see
any fronts moving through this week.  Normal highs for this time of
year are in the lower 90s for the Permian Basin... highs look to be
the mid 90s. May see a few temps near 100 along the Rio Grande. Have
raised temps today and Wednesday going closer to persistence.

Precip chances will continue to favor the higher elevations... added
isolated storms for this afternoon/evening.  COuld see a few storms
again Wednesday from the Guadalupe to the Davis mountains.  Rest of
the week looking pretty dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  68  94  68  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  68  96  68  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      98  71  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               95  70  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  68  92  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       92  66  92  66  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  55  89  58  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        95  68  94  69  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  69  94  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        96  68  98  68  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72
804
FXUS64 KMAF 010452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will prevail across the
area through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistent wx continues.
WV imagery shows yesterday`s upper trough that was over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico has swung thru south Texas and in now over
Houston, leaving a weak ridge in place from the Texas Panhandle to
offshore of Baja.  This feature is forecast to build NE this week,
and establish itself more or less over the Southern Plains into the
extended.  500-1000mb thicknesses aren`t forecast to change much,
keeping highs each day just above normal...which would be lwr to mid
90s most locations.  Again, model soundings favor the lower end of
MOS guidance, and we see no reason to deviate much from that.

Best chances for rain continue to be SE NM.  Theta-e ridge continues
to lie NW of the FA, oriented SW-NE.  By Wednesday, this drifts into
SE NM, where disturbances moving thru the ridge in SW flow aloft may
be enough to warrant a chance of convection each day into the
extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
809
FXUS64 KMAF 312310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistent wx continues.
WV imagery shows yesterday`s upper trough that was over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico has swung thru south Texas and in now over
Houston, leaving a weak ridge in place from the Texas Panhandle to
offshore of Baja.  This feature is forecast to build NE this week,
and establish itself more or less over the Southern Plains into the
extended.  500-1000mb thicknesses aren`t forecast to change much,
keeping highs each day just above normal...which would be lwr to mid
90s most locations.  Again, model soundings favor the lower end of
MOS guidance, and we see no reason to deviate much from that.

Best chances for rain continue to be SE NM.  Theta-e ridge continues
to lie NW of the FA, oriented SW-NE.  By Wednesday, this drifts into
SE NM, where disturbances moving thru the ridge in SW flow aloft may
be enough to warrant a chance of convection each day into the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  92  66  93  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    65  96  68  96  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      68  92  68  94  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  95  69  95  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  88  66  91  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       63  90  66  91  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                       53  87  57  86  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        66  92  66  93  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      68  92  67  93  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        66  97  66  97  /   0   0   0  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
035
FXUS64 KMAF 311945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistent wx continues.
WV imagery shows yesterday`s upper trough that was over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico has swung thru south Texas and in now over
Houston, leaving a weak ridge in place from the Texas Panhandle to
offshore of Baja.  This feature is forecast to build NE this week,
and establish itself more or less over the Southern Plains into the
extended.  500-1000mb thicknesses aren`t forecast to change much,
keeping highs each day just above normal...which would be lwr to mid
90s most locations.  Again, model soundings favor the lower end of
MOS guidance, and we see no reason to deviate much from that.

Best chances for rain continue to be SE NM.  Theta-e ridge continues
to lie NW of the FA, oriented SW-NE.  By Wednesday, this drifts into
SE NM, where disturbances moving thru the ridge in SW flow aloft may
be enough to warrant a chance of convection each day into the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  92  66  93  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    65  96  68  96  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      68  92  68  94  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  95  69  95  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  88  66  91  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       63  90  66  91  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                       53  87  57  86  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        66  92  66  93  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      68  92  67  93  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                        66  97  66  97  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
100
FXUS64 KMAF 311708
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Gusty SE winds through the
afternoon then speeds subside by this evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
It is a good thing we are heading into September and not July,
with an upper level ridge building over the area we will see
temperatures above normal but not as high as we saw earlier in
August. Of course the upper high will not be allowed to get very
strong thanks to a trough moving into the western states. The
upper high will eliminate rain chances the next couple of days,
but as the high breaks down we will see increasing convection
beginning in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains by midweek. Late in
the week southwesterly flow will increase as the trough moves into
the four corners region and this will push the mountain convection
east into the western and possibly central Permian Basin by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
243
FXUS64 KMAF 311054
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Light
southeast winds will generally increase to 10 to 15 mph and gusty
by mid to late Morning through early this evening before
diminishing again overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
It is a good thing we are heading into September and not July,
with an upper level ridge building over the area we will see
temperatures above normal but not as high as we saw earlier in
August. Of course the upper high will not be allowed to get very
strong thanks to a trough moving into the western states. The
upper high will eliminate rain chances the next couple of days,
but as the high breaks down we will see increasing convection
beginning in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains by midweek. Late in
the week southwesterly flow will increase as the trough moves into
the four corners region and this will push the mountain convection
east into the western and possibly central Permian Basin by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
703
FXUS64 KMAF 310848
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
It is a good thing we are heading into September and not July,
with an upper level ridge building over the area we will see
temperatures above normal but not as high as we saw earlier in
August. Of course the upper high will not be allowed to get very
strong thanks to a trough moving into the western states. The
upper high will eliminate rain chances the next couple of days,
but as the high breaks down we will see increasing convection
beginning in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains by midweek. Late in
the week southwesterly flow will increase as the trough moves into
the four corners region and this will push the mountain convection
east into the western and possibly central Permian Basin by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  69  94  71  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    94  66  98  67  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      94  70  95  71  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  69  95  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  67  87  67  /   0   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                       90  66  93  67  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                       88  58  89  60  /   0   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  69  93  70  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      92  69  93  70  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        95  69  96  71  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
001
FXUS64 KMAF 310447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Light
southeast winds will generally increase to 10 to 15 mph and gusty
by mid to late Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight
and Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term. WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.
This has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of
precip. In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile,
meandering down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast
to Louisiana by late week. The upper ridge will make an effort to
re-establish itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase
slightly thru the week. Thus, while temps will remain above normal
thru the extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been
of late. The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and
GFS soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS. Under the
ridge, rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
024
FXUS64 KMAF 302259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight
and Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term. WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.
This has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of
precip. In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile,
meandering down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast
to Louisiana by late week. The upper ridge will make an effort to
re-establish itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase
slightly thru the week. Thus, while temps will remain above normal
thru the extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been
of late. The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and
GFS soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS. Under the
ridge, rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    60  93  62  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      68  94  69  94  /  10   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  94  68  95  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              61  88  64  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       60  90  64  91  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       53  87  54  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        64  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      67  93  68  92  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        64  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
063
FXUS64 KMAF 301945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term.  WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.  This
has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of precip.
In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile, meandering
down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast to Louisiana
by late week.  The upper ridge will make an effort to re-establish
itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase slightly thru
the week.  Thus, while temps will remain above normal thru the
extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been of late.
The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and GFS
soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS.  Under the ridge,
rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    60  93  62  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      68  94  69  94  /  10   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  94  68  95  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              61  88  64  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       60  90  64  91  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       53  87  54  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        64  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      67  93  68  92  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        64  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44
580
FXUS64 KMAF 301713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites. Generally light, SE winds under clear
skies expected areawide.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Abundant clouds kept temperatures below normal yesterday, but we
will have no such luck two days in a row as an upper level ridge
builds into the area. Mostly clear skies will allow for highs go
back to near normal today, then increase above normal once again
for the remainder of this week. Unfortunately the upper air
pattern will become stagnant with the ridge remaining over west
Texas and a trough over east Texas keeping our CWA in an area of
subsidence so not only will temperatures be above normal but there
will be little if any rain chances this week as well. An upper
level trough will move into the west coast next weekend breaking
down the upper ridge and allowing temperatures to cool slightly at
that time.

Hennig

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
256
FXUS64 KMAF 301058
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with decreasing
clouds by afternoon through tonight. Light and variable winds
will become generally southeasterly at under 10 mph by mid
morning and continue through this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Abundant clouds kept temperatures below normal yesterday, but we
will have no such luck two days in a row as an upper level ridge
builds into the area. Mostly clear skies will allow for highs go
back to near normal today, then increase above normal once again
for the remainder of this week. Unfortunately the upper air
pattern will become stagnant with the ridge remaining over west
Texas and a trough over east Texas keeping our CWA in an area of
subsidence so not only will temperatures be above normal but there
will be little if any rain chances this week as well. An upper
level trough will move into the west coast next weekend breaking
down the upper ridge and allowing temperatures to cool slightly at
that time.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
272
FXUS64 KMAF 300838
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Abundant clouds kept temperatures below normal yesterday, but we
will have no such luck two days in a row as an upper level ridge
builds into the area. Mostly clear skies will allow for highs go
back to near normal today, then increase above normal once again
for the remainder of this week. Unfortunately the upper air
pattern will become stagnant with the ridge remaining over west
Texas and a trough over east Texas keeping our CWA in an area of
subsidence so not only will temperatures be above normal but there
will be little if any rain chances this week as well. An upper
level trough will move into the west coast next weekend breaking
down the upper ridge and allowing temperatures to cool slightly at
that time.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  68  96  70  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    91  65  97  67  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      94  69  98  70  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  68  97  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              86  65  91  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                       89  64  94  67  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       86  58  90  59  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  68  96  69  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      92  68  96  70  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        94  68  99  70  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10
545
FXUS64 KMAF 300451
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with decreasing
clouds. Light and variable winds overnight will become generally
southeasterly at under 10 mph by mid Sunday morning through Sunday
evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light and variable tonight and will become south to
southeasterly Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

$$

67/27
352
FXUS64 KMAF 292301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light and variable tonight and will become south to southeasterly
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
015
FXUS64 KMAF 291949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    66  93  65  97  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      72  97  71  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  65  89  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                       63  92  63  93  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       57  86  55  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      68  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        67  96  67  98  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
886
FXUS64 KMAF 291721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR expected areawide through tonight.  Lingering showers from
last nights convection should be ending with a few afternoon
storms possible near KCNM.  A boundary moved through last night
with wind at some locations becoming northerly but this should
slowly veer around to the south by evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
627
FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS have dissipated this morning and while more will develop this
afternoon, they should be west of the TAF sites and will not be
included with this issuance. VFR conditions and light southeast or
occasionally variable winds are expected the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
633
FXUS64 KMAF 290822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  89  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    90  67  93  65  /  30  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                      96  72  98  71  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               92  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  86  65  /  40  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       88  65  90  65  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       83  56  85  55  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      90  70  93  70  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        93  68  97  70  /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12
182
FXUS64 KMAF 290542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm intensity and lightning is diminishing across the area
tonight though showers will persist the next several hours in
southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. VFR conditions
will persist the next 24 hours. Light winds will generally be from
the south, but outflow boundaries could cause sudden and erratic
changes in wind direction through at least 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
113
FXUS64 KMAF 282306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through 04z for most
terminals. There may be some isolated MVFR conditions in the
heavier storm cores; otherwise, VFR conditions are mostly
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become variable this
evening, with some gusts near the storms, and will mostly be out
of the east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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