Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015


Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/


Sfc obs and satellite imagery shows CAVU conditions and
light/variable winds across West texas and Southeast new Mexico
tonight, paving the way for the first widespread hard freeze of
the Fall. Latest NAM is trickling in, and suggests a couple of
places may see overnight mins lower than what`s currently in the
grids. We`ll do a quick update for this, and adjust other
parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015/

The forecast for tonight still looks good as surface high
pressure settles into west Texas, temperatures will fall well into
the 20s tonight across most of the area resulting in the first
hard freeze of the season.

Sunday through Wednesday westerly upper level flow will resume
gradually warming temperatures back above normal. The pattern
amplifies late Wednesday as an upper trough moves into the
northern Rockies. There has been inconsistencies in the
development of this trough between models, though there is
agreement that the flow will back from the southwest...increasing
moisture and precipitation chances especially in the central and
eastern Permian Basin. This trough will push a cold front through
the area on Friday and the model inconsistencies become important
because temperatures behind the front approach that needed for a
wintry mix. This is still at the end of the forecast period so
due to considerable uncertainty, kept the p-type as liquid with a
little wintry mix in the northwestern Permian Basin and in the
Davis Mountains. Do not want to hit this hard at this time but the
potential is there.



NM...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


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