Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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492
FXUS64 KMAF 120532
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to continue overnight
along and north of a Carlsbad to Midland to Big Spring line.
Additional storms are possible further south, so have included
TSRA at all area TAF sites overnight and through much of this
morning. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the night,
but do expect ceilings to develop and lower to MVFR in the 12/10Z
to 12/15Z time frame. A strong cold front will move rapidly south
into the area, affecting KHOB as early as 12/15Z and moving
through KFST by 12/20Z. Expect ceilings to lower to low MVFR,
along with MVFR visibility in light to moderate rain and fog. Low
ceilings will likely be present at most TAF sites more often than
not through Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next 24 hours with reduced visibilities and gusty winds in
and near the storms.  Low ceilings are expected across the area by
09z and are expected to be even lower by 12z.  There will be some
improvement in ceilings Friday morning and afternoon but expect at
least MVFR conditions to prevail.  A cold front will begin moving
into the area between 18z to 21z with gusty and elevated winds out
of the northeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

Much cooler temperatures have prevailed today behind a weak cold
front which has settled along the I-10 corridor. Another, stronger
cold front is on the way tomorrow with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.

Showers and storms are beginning to develop from the Davis Mountains
east to Big Lake along yesterdays cold front. This area of storms is
expected to expand north this evening and tonight, encompassing most
of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by morning. Heavy rain
will be possible with these storms as PWAT values increase over 1.5"
and Gulf moisture rides up and over the cooler air behind the front.
This area of rain will likely combine with more storms moving south
across E NM and the TX Panhandle tomorrow morning. Some uncertainty
remains for which locations will receive the heaviest rain, however
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM appear to have the best shot. These
areas received several inches of rain last weekend and this looks
possible once again. Will continue the mention of locally heavy rain
in the forecast and issue a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday
morning. This watch may need to be expanded east with time, but this
is the area we are most confident about now.

A potent shortwave over Montana will send a strong cold front south
tonight, reaching our region Friday morning. Snow is being reported
behind this front as far south as Nebraska and northern Colorado.
High temperatures will be reached early in the day as readings fall
quickly behind the front. Most locations north of the I-20 corridor
will be in the 50s by afternoon with a strong northerly wind. We are
also looking at our first gap wind event of the season for Guadalupe
Pass as intense pressure rises arrive behind the front. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for GDP Friday night into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will continue to fall Friday night, bottoming out in
the upper 40s and 50s across the area Saturday morning. We will
likely only warm into the 60s and low 70s Saturday afternoon as the
clouds stick around with areas of light drizzle possible. By Sunday,
a disturbance over Mexico begins to shift north with rain again
overspreading the area from the lower Trans Pecos into the southern
Permian Basin. The extended remains more uncertain as an upper ridge
builds to our west and we transition to northwesterly flow aloft. A
couple of the models bring a front in by midweek so more rain is
possible as temps stay near normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Friday night FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday evening through late Friday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$


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