Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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312
FXUS64 KMAF 262310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Wednesday morning. Currently have light
and variable winds at all but MAF where moderate SE winds prevail.
Overnight, expect generally light winds at all but MAF and FST where
SE winds will remain somewhat elevated due to a persistent LLJ
across this area. LL moisture will increase after midnight tonight
with possible IFR cigs affecting MAF and FST around 27/08-09Z,
spreading NW toward INK and HOB by 27/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will return to all TAF sites by late morning. Could see some
isolated convection develop Wednesday afternoon but confidence in
location/timing is too low to include mention attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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