Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 262326

526 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

See 00Z aviation discussion below.


Light northeast winds shifting from the southeast over time. VFR
conditions will continue.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.






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