Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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207
FXUS64 KMAF 060908
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Friday...other than high clouds
streaming overhead from the subtropical Pacific dry and mild
conditions prevail this morning.

Satl imagery is indc a large upper low spinning along the South
Central CA coast just north of Point Conception. The upper low
will wobble to the Desert Southwest and into the four corners
region by Sunday morning. As the upper low moves closer to the CWA
the flow aloft will be southwest allowing weak impulses to move
overhead. At the same time sfc lee side troffing will turn the low
level flow to the southeast allowing for advection of Gulf
Moisture. With a modified continental airmass in place over the
Gulf Coast it will take some time before deep moisture makes it
into West Texas/Southeast New Mexico.

A dry line will set up in the western CWA this aftn and evening
leading to the possibility of thunderstorms. The possibility of
convection will spread east tonight thru Saturday evening as the
dry line sharpens and moves to the Permian Basin. The best chance
for strong to severe thunderstorms will be Sat aftn and evening
from the Permian Basin down thru the Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau. With up to 1000 J of MUCAPE and strong bulk shear it
appears that the main severe threat will be large hail and strong
winds. As the upper low lifts into the Central Plains on Sunday
the dry line will move east with the eastern portions of the CWA
having the best chance of thunderstorms.

Dry weather with above normal temps are expected the from Monday
thru Wednesday with weak zonal flow aloft. As an upper low
transverses the northern tier of states a weak trof will move thru
the Southern Plains leading to the possibility of convection
towards the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Another day of above normal temperatures is on
tap across the area today, though increased southeasterly return
flow will keep RHs above critical levels for most of the area. The
only exception to this is across the higher terrain to the west,
from the Guadalupe Mountains/adjacent plains southward through the
Presidio Valley, where min RHs look to bottom out this afternoon
around 15 percent. While 20ft winds look to remain under 20MPH
today, the main concern is the potential for thunderstorms to
develop across the west this afternoon, which could produce dry
lightning strikes as well as gusty, erratic winds. Storm chances
increase and expand eastward overnight, and given increased
moisture, rainfall will be possible overnight mainly along and
west of the Pecos River. Nocturnal recovery tonight will be fair,
though this could be improved if any locations across the west
receive substantial rainfall from storms through tonight.

Saturday afternoon, a dryline will form along the TX/NM border
extending south through the Big Bend Area.  Areas east of the
dryline will see RHs well above critical levels, while areas west
will see RHs drop to around 10 to 15 percent.  Localized areas in
the Guadalupe Mountains, portions of the SE New Mexico Plains, as
well as across the Marfa Plateau could see 20ft winds around 20 MPH
Saturday afternoon, though critical fire weather conditions will
likely hinge on how much - if any - precipitation these areas
receive this afternoon and tonight.  As the dryline pushes east
Sunday, westerly winds will increase, with critical fire weather
conditions possible across the west, though again, dependent on any
rainfall these areas receive between now and then.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  60  87  65 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       92  59  86  54 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         90  64  88  68 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Stockton                  92  65  92  63 /  10  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 86  55  76  53 /  20  30  10   0
Hobbs                          87  58  84  52 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                          86  51  85  52 /  20  30  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           87  62  89  64 /  10  10  20  30
Odessa                         88  64  87  64 /  10  20  20  30
Wink                           94  62  92  59 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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